by James Q
Friday, Jan 06, 2023NCAA Basketball Kentucky Wildcats VS Alabama Crimson Tide Prediction, Spread and Trends to Watch - 01/07/2023
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET, Saturday, January 7th, 2023
Venue: Coleman Coliseum, Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Where to Watch: ESPN
Opening NCAAB Odds at USA Sportsbooks
FanDuel: Alabama -6.5, O/U 152.5
BetMGM: Alabama -6.5, O/U 152.5
Caesars: Alabama -7, O/U 152.5
Season Record
Kentucky: 10-4, 1-1 SEC
Alabama: 12-2, 2-0 SEC
An SEC battle of the big boys. Of course that is a misnomer at this point of the season… in the SEC they are all big boys in basketball… Even the down teams this season remain a threat to others whenever they step out of the conference. At times mid-size cities in the South feel as if they have an NBA team when you see these kids play. Size, power, skill… tons of future NBA talent. When the SEC plays the SEC in roundball we usually get fireworks.
The Kentucky Wildcats are undefeated at home… but this is a road game. In road games the Wildcats are 0-2… and they have to play this one against the conference leading Crimson Tide on the road. It will be tough. The focal point of Kentucky is big man Oscar Tshiebwe.. Who skipped being an NBA second round pick the last couple of seasons to keep leading the Wildcats in points (16.8) and rebounds (13.8). The Wildcats have been a terrible bet this season… over their last ten games they are 1-8-1 ATS. They haven’t covered any of the big spreads… and the couple of times they were small underdogs they lost by much more. Gonzaga and UCLA handled Kentucky easily. And Missouri upset Kentucky by 14 points when Kentucky was favored -3. Kentucky is however excited for the recent breakout performances of 6’9 Forward Jacob Toppin… Jacob is the younger brother of Obi Toppin, the consensus #1 player of the year in 2020, and top-10 NBA pick who now plays for the New York Knicks. Jacob has a lot of similar physical gifts with a slightly more refined game.
The Crimson Tide are at the top of the SEC because they keep winning. They have been beaten by Gonzaga and Connecticut… but only in tournament play. They have not lost in conference or on their OOC schedule. Alabama plays a team style of ball… instead of relying on one or two stars… Everyone contributes… They have a different name on the stat leader column for every stat. The trick to deciding this one is of course asking if Alabama has played enough quality competition… Mississippi and Mem are hardly the start of a murderers row. Alabama’s leading scorer will have his hands full with Toppin and Tscheibwe.
Both these teams played Gonzaga and both lost… Alabama lost by 10 points while they were favored by 1 point. Kentucky lost by 12 points while they were favored by 4. All this proves is Gonzaga has another good crop of previously unheralded players making things happen… and that Drew Timme really loves his time in college.
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Kentucky Wildcats VS Alabama Crimson Tide Preview and Analysis
RECENT FORM
UK: 10-4, 4-9-1 ATS, 8-6 O/U, 0-1 in road games.
ALA: 12-2, 7-6-1 ATS, 8-6 O/U, 7-0 in home games.
OFFENSIVE ANALYSIS
Kentucky is 55th in the nation in scoring with 78.6 in points per game, 18th in rebounds with 37.2 per game, 20th in AST/TO with 1.5, and 61st in blocks with 4.4.
Alabama is 15th in the nation in scoring with 83.3 in points per game, 1st in rebounds with 43.1 per game, 261st in AST/To ratio with 0.9, and 16th in blocks per game with 5.6
Kentucky Wildcats VS Alabama Crimson Tide Prediction
Our prediction for Saturday, January 7th is… Kentucky 87 - Alabama 79
Bet on Kentucky. The combination of Kentucky Forwards Toppin and Tschiebwe really just started coming into form… Toppin put up a combined 45 points and 10 rebounds in the last 2 games, marking a major upswing in production. They will give Bama’s frontline fits. Also the Crimson Tide has an extremely poor AST/TO number… Kentucky guards will eat those turnovers up.
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NCAAB Betting Trends
(will update)
Starting Lineup
Kentucky: F Jacob Toppin, C Oscar Tshiebwe, F Chris Livingston, G Sahvir Wheeler, G Carson Wallace
Alabama: G Jaden Bradley, G Mark Sears, C Charles Bediako, F Noah Clowney, F Brandon Miller
Statistical Leader
Kentucky: Oscar Tsheibwe, Points 16.8, Rebounds 13.8
Sahvir Wheeler, Assists 6.8
Ugonna Onyenso, Blocks 1.4
Alabama: Brandon Miller, Points 19.1
Jaden Bradley, Assists 3.1
Noah Clowney, Rebounds 8.7
Charles Bediako, Blocks 2.3
Coaches
Kentucky: John Calipari
Alabama: Nate Oats
James Q
About the Author:
James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.
