by Chuck Sommers
Tuesday, Nov 09, 2021
Game time: 7:30 p.m. ET, November 13, 2021
Venue: Truist Field, Winston-Salem, NC
Where to watch: ACC Network
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Wake Forest -2; O/U 66.5
BetMGM: Wake Forest -2; O/U 66.5
Caesars: Wake Forest -2; O/U 66.5
Season record
No. 19 NC State: 7-2 (4-1 ACC)
No. 9 Wake Forest: 8-1 (5-0 ACC)
Al McMordie put forth a great week on the college gridiron with a 10-4-0 record and is 38-20-1 over the last month. Catch Al’s and other plays available right now at the Shop Picks page, where you can find all of the Best Bets from our champion sports handicappers.
NC State - Wake Forest preview and analysis
Last week
NC State: won 28-14 at Florida State
Wake Forest: lost 58-55 at North Carolina
Just when you thought we were all boarding the Wake Forest Demon Deacons’ hype train to the College Football Playoff, their defense forgot how to tackle at the worst time.
The Demon Deacons still have high postseason aspirations on the brain and can come one step closer of clinching a spot in the ACC championship when they host the NC State Wolfpack on Saturday in Winston-Salem.
Not since the days of Chris Paul has any athletics from Wake Forest had this type of postseason prominence, but here we are into early November and Wake Forest football finds itself on the doorstep of a conference championship and a spot in a New Year’s Six game.
But what could have been had the Deacons figured out how to tackle North Carolina Tar Heels quarterback Sam Howell on Saturday? Howell totaled 320 yards (216 passing, 104 running) and three touchdowns to lead the Tar Heels to an upset win over the previously-unbeaten Wake Forest club.
Wake Forest quarterback Sam Hartman, who has suddenly become a rising Heisman Trophy candidate, threw for 398 yards and five touchdowns against UNC. Wake Forest learned quickly of what it’s like to let things slip; the Deacons had a two-touchdown lead heading into the fourth quarter, but Heels running back Ty Chandler -- who ran for 213 yards and four touchdowns -- ran for two scores in the span of 53 seconds to tie the game.
Chandler added a 50-yard dagger with 1:12 remaining to seal the win and provide enough for the cover at -2.5.
Despite the valiant effort from Wake Forest’s offense outgaining North Carolina by a whopping 615-546, it was the defense that was victim to the Deacons’ first loss of the season; the same defense that allowed 56 points against the Army Black Knights three weeks ago, which should have been the writing on the wall from the beginning.
Wake Forest, due to a weird ACC scheduling conflict, did not receive a loss in the conference standings and still controls its own destiny when it comes to a conference championship. It can further enhance that cause with a win over the Wolfpack.
NC State has bounced back with two straight wins after losing by one point to the Miami Hurricanes on Oct. 23. The Wolfpack are coming off a 28-14 road win against the Florida State Seminoles in Tallahassee. Quarterback Devin Leary threw for 314 yards and four touchdowns in the matchup, and Trent Pennix caught three receptions for 97 yards and a touchdown.
This game is going to come down to which defense can get the most stops, and that might be an edge toward NC State. The Deacons give up 435 yards and nearly 28 points per game, while the Wolfpack have gotten this far with a stout defense that’s only given up 16 points per game.
Led by linebacker Drake Thomas, NC State has only given up 321 yards per game and just barely over 100 on the ground. Wake Forest can run the ball, but it’s all about Hartman and the passing game. That’s going to test the NC State secondary in a big way, especially on the road.
Prediction
I can’t remember the last time Winston-Salem was home to a football game of this magnitude, but it’s going to be an electric atmosphere with the potential of clinching a conference title game appearance. Given the home crowd, I like Wake Forest to win what’s expected to be a barn burner. Wake Forest by 6
Betting trends
NC State is 4-1 ATS against conference opponents this season.
NC State is 15-30 ATS following a win over a conference opponent since 1992.
Wake Forest is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 home games and 14-2 straight up.
Wake Forest is 2-8 ATS after a stretch covering two of its last three.
Statistical leaders
NC State:
Passing: Devin Leary -- 2,475 yards, 25 TD, 3 INT
Rushing: Zonovan Knight -- 617 yards, 3 TD
Receiving: Emeka Emezie -- 550 yards, 2 TD
Defense: Drake Thomas -- 74 tackles, 4 sacks, 2 INT
Wake Forest:
Passing: Sam Hartman -- 2,873 yards, 27 TD, 5 INT
Rushing: Christian Beal-Smith -- 533 yards, 7 TD
Receiving: Jaquarii Roberson -- 848 yards, 8 TD
Defense: Rondell Bothroyd -- 5.5 sacks
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
