NBA: Denver Nuggets VS Miami Heat Pick and Predictions 02/13/2023

Game: 7:40 PM ET,  Monday, February 13th, 2023

Venue:  FTX Arena, Miami, Florida

TV:  NBA TV

Nuggets: 39-18, 1st place Western Conference

Heat: 32-25, 6th place Eastern Conference

BetMGM:  Point Spread: Nuggets -1.5, O/U 219.5

PointsBet: Point Spread: Nuggets -1.5, O/U 219.5

Fanduel: Point Spread: Nuggets -1.5, O/U 220

Nuggets: PG Bruce Brown, SG Kentavious Caldwell Pope, SF Michael Porter JR, PF Aaron Gordon, C Nikola Jokic

Heat: PG Gabe Vincent, SG Tyler Herro, SF Caleb Martin, PF Jimmy Butler, C Bam Adebayo

A West Vs East mismatch.  The West team is a clear first place team with a clear MVP candidate.  The East team is a barely hanging on fringe playoff team… with a best player who has seen better days.  The Denver Nuggets win basketball games.  They just do.  They can thank C Nikola Jokic who frequently puts in staggering triple double stat lines.  The Joker is adept at scoring, rebounding, and passing… three pretty great things to be adept at if you plan on being an NBA basketball player.  The Miami Heat has been a winning team for many years with several wildly different rosters. All the while head coach Erik Spoelstra has been a rock.  This year they have struggled a bit but still managed to hit 6th place in that struggle.  The great betting opportunity here is in recognizing that the Heat have nothing that compares to Nikola Jokic… BUT the Nuggets will be missing PG Jamal Murray… so where does the point spread fall… and where will the final score fall?

The Denver Nuggets have won 6 of their last 10 games. They went 6-4 ATS during the same stretch.  Their last win was a predictable 119-105 over the Charlotte Hornets… It was a win ATS, but it still stymies the mind that they allowed 105 points from one of the worst teams in the league… which the Hornets can thank to the reality that every NBA player is an NBA player. Otherwise we could predict every game with 100% certainty.  In the win the Nuggets got 30 points, 16 rebounds, and 10 assists in just 34 minutes of play… It was easy for NIkola.. The team was playing without Jamal Murray then and still got 15 points & 5 assists from PG Bruce Brown.  The Nuggets need Jamal for the postseason… if he isn’t right now? Sit him, rest him, put him on the table.

The Miami Heat have won 7 of their last 10 games. They only went 3-7 ATS though.  A lot of close games.. And some of them against very bad teams.  They are on a 3-game winning streak however… They won their last game against the Orlando Magic 107-103. Vegas thinks very little of the Heat since their spread against the Magic was -1.5!!  And the Magic stink.  In the win the Heat got 22 points from SF Jimmy Butler, 23 points from SG Tyler Herro, and 20 points form PG Gabe Vincent.  The win however probably came from C Bam Adebayo who had 13 points, 17 rebounds, 6 assists, and 1 blocked shot.  Bam is both the Heat’s 2nd best player and the fan’s choice for who should be traded?

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The Nuggets are 6th in scoring with 117.2 points per game, 19th in rebounds with 42.8 per game. On defense they rank 13th in defense of points with 112.9 points allowed per game.  The Nuggets get their swagger from Nikola Jokic… he get help from whoever on the roster can and is willing to step up.

The Heat are 30th in scoring with 108.4 points per game, 26th in rebounds with 41.5 per game. On defense the Heat rank 2nd while holding opponents to 108.1 points per game.  The 0.30 point margin is why this team doesn’t cover spreads when they are favored and win.

Our prediction for Monday, February 13th is…. Nuggets 130 - Heat 111

The Nuggets have offensive numbers that laugh at the Heat’s offensive numbers.. But the reverse is not true.  Bet on the Nuggets.  Watch as the Heat play hard but ultimately do not have the roster to stop NIkola.

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Denver is 2-0 ATS versus Miami in Miami the last 3 seasons.

Denver is 5-0 ATS versus Miami overall the last 3 seasons.

4 of 5 games have gone OVER the last 3 seasons.

Denver: C Nikola Jokic.  The Joker should end the season as a 3x MVP… the only reason he would not is if the voters pull a “Jordan” and simply gift the reward to someone else in order to vote differently. Best player, best team (west), …oh and best player.

Miami: SF Jimmy Butler.  No one can lay claim to having ever worked harder than Jimmy.  Jimmy entered the league as an overlooked late first rounder… and since then he has rewarded every team he has played for with the best defensive minded scorer in the league.  His Hall Of Fame acceptance speech should be filled with tears… because he is the real deal who got it all through the hardest work imaginable.

Nuggets: Micheal Malone

Heat: Erik Spoelstra