NBA: Chicago Bulls VS Cleveland Cavaliers Pick and Predictions 02/11/2023

Game: 8:10 PM ET,  Saturday, February 12th, 2023

Venue:  United Center, Chicago, Illinois

TV:  NBA League Pass

Bulls: 26-29, 9th place Eastern Conference

Cavs: 36-22, 4th place Eastern Conference

BetMGM:  Point Spread: Cavs -5.5, O/U 220.5

PointsBet: Point Spread: Cavs -5.5, O/U 220.5

Fanduel: Point Spread: Cavs -5.5, O/U 220

Bulls: PG Ayo Dosunmu, SG Zach LaVine, SF DeMar DeRozan (DD), PF Patrick Williams (DD), C Nikola Vucevic

Cavs: PG Darius Garland, SG Donovan Mitchell, SF Isaac Okoro, PF Evan Mobley, C Jarrett Allen

An NBA Eastern Conference (Central) battle between the 4th place and the 9th place teams.  Both teams, no matter where they fall in the standings, don't seem to have enough to beat the top-3 teams in the Conference (Celtics, Bucks, 76ers).  They did just both get an “assist” from the Brooklyn Nets who detonated their team at the trade deadline to perform a quick rebuild.  It gives lots of Eastern Conference teams a chance to move up or solidify a chance at the playoffs.  The Chicago Bulls are a deep disappointment after their strong performance (with the same guys) last season.  DeRozan and LaVine are getting a little long in the tooth to be a part of any significant rebuild.  The fact that they failed to make any significant moves at the deadline might signify they are happy with what they have?... Or that big changes are coming through draft day and off-season moves.  The Cleveland Cavaliers are so close to “contender” they can taste it… but they are not contenders.  Great Center, perfect duo in the backcourt, but they need lots more from SF Isaac Okoro and PF Evan Mobley before they take the next step.  The great betting opportunity here will be found in the point spread. Plain and simple:  The Cavs are the better team with less nagging injuries to important players… How much should the spread be though?

The Chicago Bulls have won 5 of their l;ast 10 games and are on a 2-game losing streak.  They went 5-5 ATS during this run as well. They lost their last game (and ATS as predicted here) against the depleted Brooklyn Nets 116-105.  The reason is clearly addition by subtraction.. Despite moving two all-stars the Nets still have a good team made up of quality NBA role players and a couple potential future all-stars.  In the loss the Bulls got 38 points from SG Zach LaVine but he added only 1 rebound and 1 assist.. And he shot only 2 of 7 from deep en route to 16 of 25 overall. C Nikola Vicevic who is badly miscast as a weak spot got 15 points & 18 rebounds in 37 minutes (hardly a weak spot).  SF DeMar DeRozan had 14 points & 6 assists… as PF  Patrick Williams and PG Ayo Dosunmu were practically invisible with negligible contributions.  The Bulls needed a move but they didn’t get one.  DeRozan was in his first game back after a brief rest for injury.

The Cleveland Cavaliers have won 7 of their last 10 games and are on a 5-game winning streak.  They last beat the New Orleans Pelicans (as predicted here) 118-107 for a win ATS.  In fact they are 5-0 ATS over the last 5 games.  In the win Cleveland got what they needed from a trio of starters with 30 points from SG Donovan Mitchell, 28 points, 13 rebounds, and 2 blocks from PF Evan Mobley, and 20 points, 11 rebounds, and 2 blocks from C Jarrett Allen.  The combination of Allen and Mobley down low on the blocks is great when it works.  They need it to work all the time.  When a team shoots 56% from the field while having 9 steals and 5 blocked shots?... They will win the game.

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The Bulls are 17th in scoring with 114.2 points per game, 19th in rebounds with 42.8 per game. On defense they rank 16th in defense of scoring while holding opponents to 113.9 points per game.  Being only +0.30 in scoring is why their record and their season all feels like the results of a coin flip.

The Cavaliers are 26th in scoring with only 111.9 points per game, 22nd in rebounds with 42.2 per game… BUT on defense they are full-time stoppers ranking 1st while holding opponents to 106.2 points per game.  Amazing defensive numbers when you consider all but 2 teams in the league are averaging OVER 111.2 points per game.  Their defense (led by C Jarret Allen) is top-Notch!

Our prediction for Saturday, February 11th is…. Cavaliers 120 - Bulls 101

Bet on the Cavaliers.  They are not only on a roll but seem to have the Bulls number.  LaVine is not so great on defense and Mitchell is better than LaVine on offense… and as we go down the rosters we find similar matchup advantages.

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The Cavs are 3-1 ATS versus Chicago in Chicago the last 3 seasons.

The Bulls are 5-1 ATS when avenging three straight losses to any team this season.

The Cavs are 28-17 ATS as a favorite this season.

Bulls: SG Zach LaVine.  A big part of the problem in Chicago is Zach thinking that every game is a showcase for his shooting.  A real Max Contract player is either totally dominant as a scorer or contributes in all parts of the game.  Zach is not all that.  He would be the best NBA sixth man ever if he was a team first guy.

Cavs: SG Donovan Mitchell. Donovan is about to have a very big game. Starting against Zach LaVine and then finding switches against Dosunmu and the thin Bulls bench will give him an open pathway to the basket all night long.  As long as he doesn’t simply settle for jumpers?... he could drop 45+ .

Bulls: Billy “remember Florida!” Donovan

Cavs: JB “remember my name at least” Bickerstaff