NBA Basketball: Oklahoma City Thunder VS New Orleans Pelicans Pick and Predictions 03/11/2023

Game: 8:30 PM ET,  Saturday, March 11th, 2023

Venue: Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, Louisiana

TV:  NBA League Pass

Thunder: 31-35, 12th place Western Conference

Pelicans: 32-34, 10th place Western Conference

BetMGM:  Point Spread: Pelicans -2.5, O/U 233.5

PointsBet: Point Spread: Pelicans -2, O/U 233

Fanduel: Point Spread:  Pelicans -2.5, O/U 233

Thunder: PG Shai Gilgeous Alexander, SG Josh Giddey, SF Luguentz Dort, PF Jalen Wiliams, C Jaylin Williams

Pelicans: PG CJ McCollum, SG Josh Richardson,  SF Brandon Ingram, PF Herbert Jones, C Jonas Valanciunas

A Western Conference matchup that might get overlooked because neither team is currently a serious contender for the postseason.  When the 12th place team visits the 10th place team… you rarely get an NBA sell-out. However there is a lot to watch in this one… Specifically the backcourt of the future in Oklahoma City’s PG Shai Gilgeous Alexander and SG Josh Giddey.  The truth is they are both points guards.. They are both tall.. They are both multi-skilled… Shai has risen to among the “ten best players in the league”... considering he is 5th in the league in scoring with 31.6 per game.  Josh doesn’t lead the league in anything.. But as a 2nd year player averaging 16.2 points, 8 rebounds, and 6 assists.. He is clearly one of the most balanced players in the whole league already!  Combined this backcourt is giving OKC almost 50 points a game with 13 combined rebounds and 12 combined assists.  Next season will be the debut of C 7’3 Chet Holmgren (who missed his rookie year to injury).. And they are really 1 free agent starting forward (or traded for forward) away from being one of the best teams in the league.  The New Orleans Pelicans are living the hell over and over again.  They have pieces like SF Brandon Ingram and SG CJ McCollum.. Who are ready to have a superstar’s back as they race through the playoffs!  Yet it never happens because superstar PF Zion Williamson will finish his 4th season having missed about ¾ of all the games the Pelicans have played during that span.  Zion is amazing when he does play.. Very efficient.. Capable of big numbers in points, rebounds, and assists… but we may never see it come to fruition for the Pelicans.  The great betting opportunity here is which pair of high quality players  (Shai and Josh or Ingram and McCollum) will carry the rest of their incomplete team across the finish line.

The Oklahoma City Thunder have won 4 of their last 10 games.  Going 4-4-2 ATS during that stretch. They lost their last game to the Phoenix Suns who were playing without SF Kevin Durant (he hurt himself in warmups) 132-101.  The loss in blowout fashion highlighted Oklahoma’s weakness this season which is of course young inexperienced guys at the PF and C position being pushed around by better teams… The Thunder were also without PG Shai Gilgeous Alexander.  The blowout came fast and early and the game finished as a long experiment in garbage time.  

The New Orleans Pelicans have won 3 of their last 10 games.  Going 3-7 ATS during that stretch. They did win their last game though against the Dallas Mavericks 113-106.  In that win the Pelicans got 32 points from SG CJ McCollum.. And quality play from role players G/F Herbert Jones and SF/PF Trey Murphy III.  This win highlighted less of what the Pelicans can do than it did highlight how poorly the experiment is going in Dallas.. Especially if Kyrie and Luka have bad shooting nights on the same night.

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Our prediction for Saturday, March 11th is…. Thunder 118 - Pelicans 116

Bet on the Thunder.  PG Shai Gildgeous Alexander is supposed to give it a go.. Which means he will drop 35 on the Pelicans… that takes a lot of pressure off of SG Josh Giddey who can focus on rebounds and assists… which in turn takes a lot of pressure off the young guys playing in the front court.  

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The Thunder are 6-0 ATS the game after allowing 130 or more points this season.

The Thunder are 29-17 ATS as an underdog this season.

The Pelicans are 11-4 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 this season.

Thunder: SG Josh Giddey.  Josh has a lot of talent.  He is a tall skinny kid that needs a little more muscle going forward, but he can shine next to Shai Gilgeous Alexander by doing everything well across the board.

Pelicans: SG/SF Brandon Ingram.  Brandon is the most needed Pelican when Zion is OUT… That means that for the last 3 years Brandon has always been the most needed Pelican. He played a short amount of time last game… and is listed as Day to Day for this one.  If he plays the Pelicans have a much better chance than if he doesn’t.

Thunder: Mark “Mr personality” Daigenault

Pelicans: Willie “actual personality” Green