NBA Basketball: Minnesota Timberwolves VS Golden State Warriors Pick and Predictions 02/26/2023

Game: 7:40 PM ET,  Sunday, February 26th, 2023

Venue:  Chase Center, San Francisco, California

TV:  ESPN

Timberwolves: 31-31, 8th place Western Conference

Warriors: 30-30, 9th place Western Conference

BetMGM:  Point Spread: Warriors -2.5, O/U 233.5

PointsBet: Point Spread: Warriors -2.5, O/U 233.5

Fanduel: Point Spread:  Warriors -2.4, O/U 234

Timberwolves: PG Mike Conley, SG Anthony Edwards, SF Jaden McDaniels, PF Kyle Anderson, C Rudy Gobert

Warriors: PG Ty Jerome, SG Jordan Poole, SF Klay Thompson, PF Draymond Green, C Kevon Looney

A Western Conference battle between the two teams most desperately concerned by the Lakers having a resurgence.  See, both of these teams are at the edge of the Playoffs/Play-in game.  They are 8th and 9th in the West.  They have identical .500 records though have played a different amount of games.  A win for either will put them (however briefly) above the other.  The Minnesota Timberwolves have a wildly talented star in SG Anthony Edwards… That talent hasn’t really been translated into wins.  AE has a quality team around him.. Though it was recently considered a good idea to make some changes… Out went De’Angelo Russell and in came Father Time Mike Conley.  We have no idea where this team would be had PF/C Karl Anthony Towns not spent practically all year on the injury list.  We do know that when Karl does come back… he should be traded immediately.  It did not work when Rudy, Anthony, and Karl did play together.  Considering this team sacrificed all their future draft capital for a defensive center in a league where centers have been marginalized?... They will need actual wings and skill players soon.  The Golden State Warriors are the league’s defending Champs!  Yay!  And they have completely fallen apart.  The defense which was stellar last season feels almost completely gone this season… and it is mostly the same players on the roster!  Except for a few minor pieces that were moved to save money… oh but it turns out those pieces were needed.  At the moment PG Steph Curry is out with injury and preparing for a return before the playoffs… Hopefully the team will still have a shot at the Playoffs when he gets back. The great betting opportunity here will be found in the defensive numbers and scoring differential.

The Minnesota Timberwolves have won only 4 of their last 10 games.  They are on a 2-game losing streak and lost their last game to the Charlotte Hornets 121-113!  They went 4-6 ATS during that stretch. In the loss the starters did OK except for Forwards Kyle Anderson and Jaden McDaniels who had small scoring nights,,, but fared even worse on the defensive end as the Hornets starting forwards outscored them 47-17… That is a -30 points from the starting forwards!  

The Golden State Warriors have only won 4 of their last 10 games.  Going 3-6-1 ATS. They won their last game over the Houston Rockets 116-101… in the most predictable win ATS ever. (as predicted here).  In the win, the Warriors got 42 points from Klay Thompson on 12 of 17 shooting from 3 point range and 6 of 6 from the foul line.  Outside of Klay the rest of the team was relatively quiet… 15 from Poole, 15 from DiVincenzo… Once again PF Jonathan Kuminga failed to impress when given a starting spot. He finished the game with 7 points, 4 rebounds, and 4 assists which is very much like a Draymond Green stat line except a little low in the rebounds and assists.  

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The Timberwolves are 10th in scoring with 115.7 points per game, and 25th in rebounds with 41.4 per game. On defense the Wolves are 19th while allowing 115.9 points per game.  They average -0.20 points a game… which makes the .500 record in the standings predictable.

The Warriors are 2nd in scoring with 118.5 points per game, and 14th in rebounds with 43.8 per game. On defense they rank a sad 27th while allowing 118.3 points per game. They average +0.20 points a game… which makes the .500 record in the standings predictable. See how that works.

Our prediction for Sunday, February 26th is…. T-Wolves 121 - Warriors 113

Bet on the Wolves.  The Warriors will be missing Steph Curry, Andrew Wiggins, and Gary Payton II… leaving them thin on both ends of the floor.  Plus Draymond Green is listed as Day to Day and may get yanked at the first sign of pain, swelling, or blowout.

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The Warriors are 4-0 ATS versus the Wolves in Golden State the last 3 seasons.

8 of 9 games in this matchup have gone over the last 3 seasons.

Golden State is 2-10 ATS revenging a same season loss this year.

T-Wolves: C Rudy Gobert.  Rudy is a stellar defensive player.  He rebounds and blocks shots with  the occasional points.  He also cost the T-Wolves a near record haul of future draft compensation to the Utah Jazz… and the current iteration of Anthony Edwards and Rudy Gobert is beginning to look a lot like Mitchell and Gobert looked in Utah.  That is not a compliment.

Warriors:  SF Andrew Wiggins.  An all star last season… Andrew is not having quite the same year.  He is still productive and important, BUT the team defense is way DOWN.  It may be time to put more scoring responsibility on Andrew in the hope that others spots can focus more on defense.  Pr maybe the team could simply ask Andrew to play harder defense?

Timberwolves: Chris “Finchy” Finch

Warriors: Steve “Lord of the Rings” Kerr