NBA Basketball: Houston Rockets VS San Antonio Spurs Pick and Predictions 03/04/2023

Game: 8:10 PM ET,  Saturday, March 4th, 2023

Venue: AT&T Center, San Antonio, Texas

TV:  NBA League Pass

Rockets: 13-49, 15th place Western Conference

Spurs: 16-47, 14th place Western Conference

BetMGM:  Point Spread: Spurs -1.5, O/U 230.5

PointsBet: Point Spread: Rockets -1, O/U 230.5

Fanduel: Point Spread:  Spurs -1, O/U

Rockets: PG Kevin Porter JR, SG Jalen Green, SF Kenyon Martin, PF Jabari Smith Jr, C Alperen Sengun

Spurs: PG Tre Jones, SG DeVonte Graham, SF Keita Bates Diop, PF Jeremy Sochan, C Zach Collins 

A Western Conference battle of the worst of the worst… the lowest of the low… the all-time best sellers at the Jerk Store.  You couldn’t possibly imagine the lack of defense that will be on display unless you spent a day watching the last All-Star game in slow motion.  These are squads of NBA players for sure… but barely.  The impetus for this open display of terribleness of course is the French Teenage Sensation 7’4 C Victor Wembanyama.  He is the Golden Kid.. He will solve every problem one very lucky franchise has… if only they can win the coming NBA draft lottery! The chances of winning the lottery involves being bad and staying bad… These teams have accomplished that and then some.  The Houston Rockets start very young and very unprepared recent draft picks… and they give them no help whatsoever off the bench.  The thought is the kids can learn on the job while Houston gets the losses they want.  The San Antonio Spurs have spent the last two seasons trading the only capable players on their roster for future picks and future cap space.  The thinking is that if they win the Lottery they then can draft an entirely NEW TEAM… then use the cap space to fill in the necessary veteran bench pieces.  So… The Great Betting Opportunity in a game where you can find either team listed at -1 on multiple sites… so a “pick-em’” really.  Will be found in your faith in terribleness.  Not who will win… but who will tackle the opportunity to lose yet again.

The Houston Rockets have won ZERO of their last 10 games.  The losing streak really goes back 11 games, but we look at ten games to establish trends.  They went 2-8 ATS during that stretch.  They allowed Portland PG Damian Lilliard to drop 71 points on them.  No team has had more individual 40 point games against them this season than the Rockets. They lost their last game against the Memphis Grizzlies 113-99. In that game SG Jalen Green led the team in scoring with 20 points… his defensive missteps were staggering.  SF Kenyon Martin Jr had 19 points &6 rebounds… while rookie PF Jabari Smith Jr who was last draft’s #3 overall pick had only 4 points in 20 minutes.  The Rockets hold an odd distinction of having multiple recent top five NBA Draft Picks in Smith Jr & Green (#2 overall 2021) that have been outperformed by most of the picks taken around them if they are healthy.  If the team had a time machine?  We would be talking about Scottie Barnes and Benedict Mathurin.

The San Antonio Spurs have won 2 of their last 10 games.  They are actually on a two game winning streak… having just beaten the Jazz and the Pacers.  They went 3-7 ATS during that stretch.  They won their last game against the Indiana Pacers 110-99.  The Pacers lack forwards and were not playing PG Tyrese Haliburton.. And held SG Ben Mathurin to 14 minutes as they keep trying to feature SG Chris Duarte and PG TJ McConnell.. The Pacers would very much like to trade those guys during the coming NBA draft.  In the win the Spurs got 22 points & 13 rebounds from PF Jeremy Sochan who stood head and shoulders above the series of 6’5 SGs that make up the Pacers PF rotation.  C Zach Collins, bench guard Devin Vassell, and PG Devonte Graham all scored 18 points apiece… a nice day for the Spurs against a seriously unbalanced team… If you are a Spurs fan do not worry about memorizing any names outside of SF Keldon Johsnon (injury list) and PF Jeremy Sochan… the others will be traded away or cut as the team uses all the accumulated draft picks to build a new identity.

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The Rockets are 29th in scoring and 28th against scoring on defense… meaning they are terrible on both ends of the floor.  They are 1 of only 2 teams in the NBA currently averaging below 110 points a game.  They rank highly in rebounds… mostly because Rockets games involve LOTS and LOTS of missed shots.

The Spurs are 25th in scoring BUT are 30th against scoring… That is right.  The Spurs are the only team in the NBA to give up more points per game than the Rockets as they give up 122!  It is a shame to see how Poppovich has spent the last few years of possibly the greatest NBA coaching career ever. (5 rings, most wins, same small market the entire time)

Our prediction for Saturday, March 4th is…. Spurs 128 - Rockets 111

Bet on the Spurs.  The Spurs have just a few more games this season.. But the real reason they have the advantage is that some of the Spurs “nobodies” are seasoned veterans that will simply put their head down and play smart basketball… They will do it with limited talent… but they will still do it.

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Houston is 8-20 ATS as a road underdog this season.

The Spurs are 2-0 ATS as a home favorite this season.

Rockets: C Alperen Sengun.  Alperen is a good, serviceable NBA Center.  He probably would do better as a bench player on a good team but he can be inserted for a sure double double as a starter.  Ironic that the Rockets most useful player plays the position they are dreaming of drafting.  If the Rockets win the Lottery he may instantly become trade fodder.

Spurs: PF Jeremy Sochan.  Jeremy should not be the best player on any team… BUT with SF Keldon Johnson on the injury list?... It kind of all falls on him.

Rockets: Stephen “babysiter’s Club” Silas

Spurs:  Greg “the Grey Legend” Poppovich