NBA Basketball: Houston Rockets VS Golden State Warriors Pick and Predictions 02/24/2023

Game: 10:10 PM ET,  Friday, February 24th, 2023

Venue:  Chase Center, San Francisco, California

TV:  NBA League Pass

Rockets: 13-45, 15th place Western Conference

Warriors: 29-30, 10th place Western Conference

BetMGM:  Point Spread: Warriors -10.5, O/U 231.5

PointsBet: Point Spread: Warriors -10.5, O/U 231.5

Fanduel: Point Spread:  Warriors -10.5, O/U 231.5

Rockets: PG Ty Ty Washington Jr, SG Josh Christopher, SF Kenypon Martin Jr, PF Jabari Smith JR, C Alperen Sengun

Warriors: PG Jordan Poole, SG Klay Thompson, SF Andrew Wiggins, PF Draymond Green, C Kevon Looney

A Western Conference matchup between the conference’s worst team and the defending champions of the entire league. Of course the defending Champs are not as good as they were last season… not even close.  But that doesn’t make anything even.  The Rockets are not only the worst team in the league (yes, worse than Detroit)... they will also be missing their starting backcourt of PG Kevin Porter JR and SG Jalen Green… When the worst team in the league is missing their starting backcourt… things get entirely bleak. The Warriors lost to the Los Angeles Lakers last night and have continued their tumble down the standings… They now find themselves in 10th place with PG Stephen Curry on the shelf.  Even with the losing the Warriors are still head and shoulders above the Rockets when it comes to talent, depth, shooting, defense (even though the Warriors defense is soft this season).  The great betting opportunity here is all about that HUGE 10.5 points spread.  If you bet the Warriors who WILL win… You are really betting them to win in a blowout… If you bet the Rockets?  Who will lose, you are really betting for a team with no talent on the floor to keep it close enough to cover.  Let’s look at the numbers.

The Houston Rockets have won only 2 of their last 10 games and are on a shockingly bad 7 game losing streak.  That is the way management want it… this season will be successful if the Rockets land the #1 pick (or even #2 or #3).  They went 5-5 ATS during the last 10 games because the point spreads have been HUGE… However they have lost their last two games ATS and those spreads were 14 points and 10 points.  This team no longer had Eric Gordon… is missing their starting guards?... It has been built to be blown out.

The Golden State Warriors really need this “get right” game.  They have only won 4 of their last 10 games. Going 3-6-1 ATS during the run.  They lost their last game to the new look Los Angeles Lakers 124-111.  This last trade deadline may soon be looked back on as the one the Warriors let get away… The Mavs, Suns, and Lakers all got better while the Warriors simply shuffled deck chairs on the Titanic.  If the combo of young guys like Moody, Kuminga, and Poole can’t team up to be a new trio of stars?... It could all be a waste of time and potential.

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The Rockets are 29th in scoring (there are only 30 teams remember) with 109.8 points per game, and 4th in rebounds with 46.6 per game (lots of missed shots means lots of rebounds). On defense they rank 26th while allowing 118.2 points per game. They are -8.4 points per game. 

The Warriors are 2nd in scoring with 118.5 points per game and 14th in rebounds with 43.7 per game.  The Warriors have no trouble scoring.  They are 27th in scoring defense  with 118.6 points per game allowed.  They are negative 0.10 points per game.  Defense is definitely a problem… but against an awful team?  Defense isn’t the worry it would be against a capable team.

Our prediction for Friday, February 24th is…. Warriors 130 - Rockets 101

Bet on the Warriors.  Expect a 20+ point win.  You can goose your return by selling a couple points to your book.  Do it… Bet on the Warriors and don’t think twice about it.

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The Warriors are 3-1 ATS versus the Rockets in Golden State the last 3 seasons.

The Warriors are 6-2 ATS versus the Rockets overall the last 3 seasons.

The Rockets are 2-12 ATS in road games where the total is 230 or greater.

Rockets: C Alperen Sengun.  Alperen was a pleasant surprise this season for the Rockets.  Coming out of anonymity to average a double double and look good doing it.  He will be traded on draft day if the Rockets win the NBA Draft Lottery and get to pick C Victor Wembanyama… but if they don’t win the #1 pick…. Aleperen will be a starting Rocket for many years to come.

Warriors:  PF Draymond Green.  The future Hall of Famer has built his career and reputation as the defensive master down low.  This season is an off season and may signal the end of that reputation. You can’t blame defense on just one guy, especially not on the best defender, but still with these team numbers?... Giving the aging star a big money extension is probably not a good idea.

Rockets: Stephen “Babysitters club” Silas

Warriors: Steve “lord of the Rings” Kerr