NBA Basketball: Denver Nuggets VS San Antonio Spurs Pick and Predictions 03/10/2023

Game: 8:10 PM ET,  Friday, March 10th, 2023

Venue: AT&T Center, San Antonio, Texas

TV:  NBA League Pass

Nuggets: 46-20, 1st place Western Conference

Spurs: 16-49, 14th place Western Conference

BetMGM:  Point Spread: Nuggets -12.5, O/U 235.5

PointsBet: Point Spread: Nuggets -12.5, O/U 236.5

Fanduel: Point Spread:  Nuggets -13, O/U 236

Nuggets: PG Jamal Murray, SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SF Michael Porter JR, PF Aaron Gordon, C Nikola Jokic

Spurs: PG Tre Jones, SG Devin Vassell, SG Keldon Johnson, PF Jeremy Sochan, C Zach Collins

A Western Conference NBA mismatch of epic proportions.  The Denver Nuggets are in first place in the West and have remained dominant throughout the season.  The San Antonio Spurs have spent the last few seasons jettisoning any one with talent to accumulate cap space and draft picks… the result is one of the most awful teams in all of the NBA… They are in 14th place in the West.  It is such a lopsided match that gamblers have to take pause.  The Nuggets will be favored by double digits… 12-13 points depending on the site you bet on or the Sportsbook you walk into.  With a matchup this favorable to the Nuggets they may choose to rest starters early or not play a few of them altogether.  Why risk anyone’s health while playing a team this bad?... The Nuggets want to win of course… BUT they can do that without everyone suited up.  The great betting opportunity here is obvious… the Nuggets will win… but how much faith do you have in a -13 point spread… in a game like pro basketball… not college… pro.

The Denver Nuggets have won 8 of their last 10 games.  They are 7-3 ATS during that stretch.  Shockingly they lost their last game against the soft Chicago Bulls 117-96… they struggled to get anything going early and would simply waived the white flag early as well.  In the loss they got 18 points, 12 rebounds, and 8 assists from this season’s presumptive MVP (for his 3rd straight)  C Nikola Jokic.  The Joker got outplayed by Bulls Center Nikola Vucevic.. The two men are friends off the court… So maybe a little familiarity took away the Joker’s edge for a night?  PG Jamal Murray had a terrible shooting night… going 4 of 15 from the field with 1 of 7 from 3-point range… he finished with 11 points & 5 assists.  Top to bottom everyone on the roster seemed to have off nights except for backup C Thomas Bryant who recently came over from the Lakers… Thomas poured in 10 points in 12 minutes and maybe should have played more than 12 minutes?

The San Antonio Spurs have won only 2 of their last 10 games. Going 3-7 ATS during that stretch.  They were the underdogs in every single matchup… even the last two games against the Houston Rockets!... They lost both of those games in blowout fashion.  They lost their last game to the Rockets 142-110.  In the loss they got 14 points & 6 rebounds from starting Center Charles Bassey… remember him?... He was a fine college player that is simply too small and slow to play as a starting Center in the NBA… SF Keldon Johnson, who is supposed to be the best player left on the Spurs roster, was a disaster… Keldon had 8 points in 26 minutes and finished with a -22 on the +/- scale.  That was against the Houston Rockets.

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Our prediction for Friday, March 10th is…. Nuggets 142 - Spurs 108

Bet on the Nuggets… They do not even need Jokic to play more than 20 minutes.  The Nuggets will get out to an early lead and keep it all the way through… until both sides are throwing bench players at scrubs.

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The Spurs are 3-1 ATS versus Denver in San Antonio the last 3 seasons.

Denver is 22-8 ATS after having won 2 of their last 3 games this season.

The Spurs are 16-31 ATS when the total is 230 or greater this season.

Nuggets: C Nikola Jokic.  Jokic had a quiet game against the Bulls C Nikola Vucevic… He will now bounce back very easily playing the 6’9 Charles Bassey.. Or the flappable Zach Collins.  Look for Nikola to get a triple double while playing just 25 minutes.

Spurs: SF Keldon Johnson. Keldon is the keeper of the bunch.  This team desperately wants to make huge strides towards a whole scale rebuild… That means drafting in the top 3… That means signing better starters off the free agent list… The one guy they will keep in place is Keldonm Johnson… UNLESS someone like the Pacers needs a forward so bad that they overpay for him in a trade.

Nuggets: Mike “Malonely” Malone

Spurs: Greg “Legend” Poppovich