by Rod Pearson
Monday, Nov 18, 2024
Game Time: 12:00 pm ET, Saturday, November 23, 2024
Venue: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL
Where to Watch: ABC
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Ole Miss -10, Florida +10; Over/Under: 55.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Ole Miss -10, Florida +10; Over/Under: 55.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Ole Miss -10, Florida +10; Over/Under: 55.5 points
Season Record
Mississippi Rebels: 8-2 (4-2) (5th place, SEC)
Florida Gators: 5-5 (3-4) (12th place, SEC)
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Mississippi Rebels: won their last game at home against the Georgia Bulldogs 28-10.
Florida Gators: won their last game at home against the LSU Tigers 27-16.
Mississippi Rebels vs Florida Gators Preview and Analysis
Ole Miss is entering this game with an 8-2 record overall and they have a 4-2 record in their conference games too. They are 5-1 in their home games, 3-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against Georgia 28-10. Jaxson Dart was the starting QB and he completed 13/22 passes for 199 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Jaxson Dart led the team in rushing yards with 50. Cayden Lee led the receivers with 81 receiving yards on 4 receptions. Trey Washington led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 0 assisted tackles while Jared Ivey and Princely Umanmielen each led the defense in sacks with 2. John Saunders Jr. came away with the only interception for them in that one.
Florida is entering this game with a 5-5 record overall and they have a 3-4 record in their conference games too. They are 4-2 in their home games, 1-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-1 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against LSU 27-16. DJ Lagway was the starting QB and he completed 13/26 passes for 226 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Jadan Baugh led the team in rushing yards with 65 and 1 TD. Elijhah Badger led the receivers with 131 receiving yards on 6 receptions and 1 TD. Shemar James led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 6 assisted tackles while Shemar James led the defense in sacks with 2. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
Mississippi vs Florida Prediction
The current betting odds have Ole Miss listed as a 10 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Ole Miss has looked really good in their games this season with their 8-2 record overall and their 4-2 conference record which still has them near the top of the SEC and in this Championship race. They are coming out of their bye week for this game so they have had extra time to prepare for it, and they will also have some momentum from a big win against Georgia in their last one. Meanwhile, Florida hasn't looked great in their games this season with their 5-5 record overall and their 3-4 conference record which has them in the bottom half of the SEC. They don't have much to play for this season except bowl eligibility, but they have been a really up and down team all year. They are coming off a nice win over LSU in their last one, but they have been blown out by stronger teams they have faced this season. Ole Miss has had a really good offense all year, both on the ground and through the air, so they are going to find ways to move the ball against this defense with their talented QB Jaxson Dart. Florida has looked better lately, but their defense has given up a lot of points in some of their games against stronger offenses so they are going to struggle to stop this high flying Ole Miss offense. The best way to place a bet here is on Ole Miss to cover the spread in this game.
Mississippi Florida Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, November 23, 2024 (12:00 pm ET start time) is Ole Miss 35 Florida 20.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Mississippi Rebels: 7-1 ATS as a road favorite. 8-3 ATS after allowing 14 points or less last game. 5-2 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. 22-14 UNDER in all lined games. 19-9 UNDER as a favorite. 7-2 UNDER off a home win by 17 points or more.
Florida Gators: 2-5 1H ATS in a home game where the total is between 49.5 and 56. 1-4 1H ATS versus good defensive teams - allowing 4.5 yards/play or less. 14-7 OVER as an underdog. 10-5 OVER when the total is between 49.5 and 56. 13-3 OVER vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game.
Key Injuries
Mississippi Rebels: I. Hartrup (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. T. Harris (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. M. Jones (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. H. Parrish (RB) Out - Leg. J. Williams (OL) Questionable - Undisclosed. L. Diggs (RB) Out - Knee.
Florida Gators: M. Johnson (RB) Probable - Lower Body. G. Howard (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Moore (DB) Questionable - Undisclosed. T. Webb (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Manuel (OL) Questionable - Undisclosed. A. Turner (DB) Questionable - Shoulder. J. Jackson (DB) Questionable - Undisclosed. E. Wilson (WR) Out - Hip. J. Marshall (DB) Out - Shoulder. G. Mertz (QB) Out - Knee. K. Jackson (WR) Out - Knee. J. Lyons (DL) Out - Ankle.
Notable Quotes
“We’ve really played well over the past two games. We dominated Arkansas and a three-score win over Georgia. I’m really proud of how our team is responding.” - Lane Kiffin after his team’s win against UGA in their last game.
“Elite play. God blessed that young man.” - Billy Napier on DJ Lagway after his team’s win against LSU in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Mississippi Rebels
WR Wells Jr., Antwane
WR Harris, Tre
WR Lee, Cayden
TE Prieskorn, Caden
QB Dart, Jaxson
RB Bentley IV, Ulysses
Florida Gators
WR Dike, Chimere
WR Burke, Marcus
WR Mizell, Aidan
TE Hansen, Hayden
QB Lagway, DJ
RB Johnson Jr., Montrell
Statistical Leaders
Mississippi Rebels
Passing: J. Dart (3396)
Rushing: H. Parrish (678)
Receiving: T. Harris (987)
Touchdowns: H. Parrish (10)
Florida Gators
Passing: D. Lagway (1297)
Rushing: J. Baugh (476)
Receiving: E. Badger (691)
Touchdowns: J. Baugh (7)
Coaches:
Mississippi Rebels: Lane Kiffin (5th season)
Florida Gators: Billy Napier (3rd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
