Minnesota Timberwolves vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction, Preview and Odds - 05/28/2025

Game Time: 8:30 pm ET, Wednesday, May 28, 2025

Venue:  Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK 

Where to Watch:  ESPN

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Timberwolves +8.5, Thunder -8.5; Over/Under:  220.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Timberwolves +8.5, Thunder -8.5; Over/Under:  220.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Timberwolves +8.5, Thunder -8.5; Over/Under:  220.5 points

Minnesota Timberwolves:  49-33 (3rd place, Northwest Division)

Oklahoma City Thunder:  68-14 (1st place, Northwest Division)

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Minnesota Timberwolves:  6-4 last 10

Oklahoma City Thunder:  7-3 last 10

The Timberwolves are entering the playoffs with a 49-33 record overall this season and they were 24-17 in their road games where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a loss against the Oklahoma City Thunder. Nickeil Alexander-Walker led the team in points in that game with 23 while Jaden McDaniels was next on the team with 22 points. Anthony Edwards and Nickeil Alexander-Walker each led the team in assists in that game with 6 while Rudy Gobert led the team in rebounds with 9. They were 51.2% from the field, 43.9% from 3-point range, and 78.6% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 114.3 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 109.3 PPG against them. The Timberwolves have an ATS record of 48-47-1 this season and their O/U record is 52-44.

The Thunder are entering the playoffs with a 68-14 record overall this season and they were 35-6 in their home games where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the Minnesota Timberwolves. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the team in points in that game with 40 while Jalen Williams was next on the team with 34 points. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the team in assists in that game with 10 while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the team in rebounds with 9. They were 50.5% from the field, 43.2% from 3-point range, and 76.2% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 120.5 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 107.6 PPG against them. The Thunder have an ATS record of 59-35-4 this season and their O/U record is 53-43-2.

The current betting odds have the Thunder listed as an 8.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 5 of a 7 game series between the 1st seeded Thunder and the 6th seeded Timberwolves for the Western Conference Finals of the NBA playoffs. The Thunder are leading this series 3-1 after winning game 4 on the road. The Thunder took a 3-1 series lead with a 128-126 win over the Timberwolves in the 4th game of this series and that was a hard fought win to put the Timberwolves on the brink of elimination now. The Thunder bounced back after a terrible loss by over 40 points in game 3, and now they have a big advantage in this series going back home. The Thunder did struggle more in both of those road games, but they managed to get the 1 win they needed and now have a chance to kick the Timberwolves out of the playoffs in the next game. The Thunder have looked a lot better on their home court in the playoffs too, rolling over teams by double digits in a majority of their home games so far. The Timberwolves weren't able to put up much of a fight in those first 2 road games of this series and they blew their chance to tie this series in a tight loss in game 4. The Timberwolves really needed to win that 4th game at home to stay alive, but now this series feels like it is over going back to Oklahoma City. The best way to place a bet here is on the Thunder to cover the spread in this game. 

Timberwolves Thunder Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Wednesday, May 28, 2025 (8:30 pm ET start time) is Thunder 124 Timberwolves 104.

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Minnesota Timberwolves: 3-6 ATS in the conference finals. 2-8 1H ATS off a home loss against a division rival. 16-9 OVER as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points. 10-3 OVER when trailing in a playoff series. 16-8 OVER when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%).

Oklahoma City Thunder: 28-16 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. 23-15 ATS off a win against a division rival. 31-18 ATS after 3 or more consecutive overs. 30-17 OVER after 3 or more consecutive overs. 27-17 OVER as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points.

Minnesota Timberwolves:  None.

Oklahoma City Thunder:  N. Topic (PG) Out For Season - ACL.

“They outplayed us, outrebounded us, got more of the 50-50 balls. Wanted it a little bit more.” - Anthony Edwards after their loss against the OKC Thunder in game 4 of this series on Monday.

“Give their role guys credit. The shot-making was ridiculous, so for us to overcome that on the road the way we did was a great team win.” - Mark Daigneault after his team’s win against the Timberwolves in game 4 of this series on Monday.

PG Mike Conley

SG Anthony Edwards

SF Jaden McDaniels

PF Julius Randle

C Rudy Gobert

PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

SG Luguentz Dort

SF Jalen Williams

PF Chet Holmgren

C Isaiah Hartenstein

PPG: A. Edwards (27.6)

APG: J. Randle (4.7)

Reb/G: R. Gobert (10.9)

PPG: S. Gilgeous-Alexander (32.7)

APG: S. Gilgeous-Alexander (6.4)

Reb/G: I. Hartenstein (10.7)

Coaches:

Minnesota Timberwolves: Chris Finch (5th season)

Oklahoma City Thunder: Mark Daigneault (5th season)