by Chuck Sommers
Monday, Nov 08, 2021
Game time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, IA
Where to watch: TBD
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Iowa -6
BetMGM: Iowa -6
Caesars: Iowa -6
Season record
No. 20 Minnesota: 6-3 (4-2 Big Ten)
No. 22 Iowa: 7-2 (4-2 Big Ten)
*College Football Playoff rankings
Al McMordie put forth a great week on the college gridiron with a 10-4-0 record and is 38-20-1 over the last month. Catch Al’s and other plays available right now at the Shop Picks page, where you can find all of the Best Bets from our champion sports handicappers.
Minnesota - Iowa preview and analysis
Last week
Minnesota: lost 14-6 vs. Illinois
Iowa: won 17-12 at Northwestern
Allow me to get caught up:
To the Minnesota Golden Gophers: You had one job.
To the Iowa Hawkeyes: How are you still here?
Now the two have to play each other Saturday in Iowa City because the Big Ten has yet to undergo a slow, agonizing death as it is.
I’ll be fair for a minute: This is going to be a fun matchup of stellar defense. Two of the best units in the Big Ten will hit hard, bang some helmets around, and likely walk off the field for a 9-6 final.
But you talk about an underwhelming matchup where touchdowns might be premium after how last week transpired, things couldn’t get any more weirder if you forced it.
The Gophers -- who, mind you, made a late charge over the last month for a prime spot in the Big Ten Championship game -- put up a grand total of six points on the board against the Illinois Fighting Illini, losing 14-6 and essentially ending any hopes unless things fall off the rails.
Minnesota quarterback Tanner Morgan threw for 180 yards and two interceptions, while Minnesota’s running attack was held to just 2.5 yards per carry. Illinois running back Chase Brown carried the ball 32 times for 147 yards, proving Minnesota misses it’s bellcow back Mohamed Ibrahim. Ky Thomas carried it 16 times for just 60 yards. That won’t get it done.
Minnesota’s passing game is going to be suspect for the rest of the season, but the Gophers blew a huge opportunity last week to get some separation in the Big Ten West. As a result, there’s a four-way tie in the division with Wisconsin, Minnesota, Purdue, and the Gophers’ opponent this weekend.
Right now by way of head-to-head tiebreaker, the Badgers find themselves at the top. Iowa, who somehow continues to slide by the skin of its teeth, is coming off a five-point win against the Northwestern Wildcats that was won by the Iowa defense.
After the Iowa offense scored 14 points combined in consecutive losses to Wisconsin and Purdue, Iowa scored 17 and that was enough to win.
It also came with a much-neeeded quarterback change. Alex Padilla replaced Spencer Petras to throw for 172 yards on 18 of 28 passing. Considering Petras barely eclipsed 100 yards the last two weeks, that was coming eventually for a team that still can win the Big Ten under coach Kirk Ferentz.
Padilla got plenty of help from leading rusher Tyler Goodson, who ran for 141 yards and one touchdown in the victory, while Keagan Johnson caught five passes for 68 yards.
Iowa’s offense was the only unit holding the Hawkeyes back, and if you’re a Hawkeyes fan, you have to feel good about the prospect of how Padilla looked. You’d feel more comfortable if he threw a touchdown, but he got yards. The real test is to see how the quarterback can look against a much better defense, at home, in what’s expected to be a low-scoring game.
Prediction
It would not shock me in the least to see Minnesota bounce back and win, especially after coach P.J. Fleck just signed a long-term, seven-year extension to stay with the Gophers. But I want to feel comfortable about Padilla at quarterback knowing Ferentz actually made the right call. I’ll give the benefit of the doubt to Iowa for one week. One more loss, and they’re off the island. Iowa by 7
Betting trends
Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last six as a road underdog.
Minnesota is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 on the road.
Minnesota is 11-3 ATS following a game at home in its last 14.
Iowa is 4-3 ATS this season as a favorite.
Statistical leaders
Minnesota:
Passing: Tanner Morgan -- 1,357 yards, 6 TD, 7 INT
Rushing: Trey Potts -- 552 yards, 6 TD
Receiving: Mike Brown-Stephens -- 317 yards, 1 TD
Defense: Thomas Rush -- 5.5 sacks
Iowa:
Passing: Spencer Petras -- 1,430 yards, 9 TD, 6 INT
Rushing: Tyler Goodson -- 754 yards, 6 TD
Receiving: Sam LaPorta -- 391 yards, 2 TD
Defense: Lukas Van Ness -- 5 sacks
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
