Game Time: Noon PM ET, Saturday, November 13th, 2021

Venue: Beaver Stadium, University Park, Pennsylvania

Where to Watch:  ABC

Kickoff Time: 12:05 AM

DraftKings Sportsbook:  Spread: Penn State -1; Over/Under: 48.5 points

Circa:  Spread: PK; Over/Under:  48.5 points

VegasInsider:  Spread:  Penn State -1; Over/Under: 48 points

 

Michigan: 5-1 conf, 8-1 overall (big ten)

Penn State: 3-3 conf, 6-3 overall (big ten)

Regular readers of this space will remember that this writer laid a bet for Penn State to cover the spread against the Ohio State Buckeyes which was -18.  It was more money than I have ever bet on a college football game or any matchup in any sport, by a lot. It hit!  Penn State will now officially pay for my next 1000 wagers (plus some of it is now wrapped up in Dogecoin… free money?).  So, I will always have a soft spot for the Nittany Lions… but this game is not that.  First off, there is almost no spread.  I have seen -1, -1.5, and PK (pick’em)... so in essence the bet is will Penn State beat Michigan?  That will take some study of the numbers.

Michigan has only lost 1 game and that was to the Michigan State Spartans at Spartan Stadium… and only by 4 points.  They are real even if no one believes Jim Harbaugh is anything but a mirage as the head coach.

No one has illusions that Penn State could beat the Alabama Crimson Tide or the Georgia Bulldogs… the SEC is tougher than Penn State can handle right now, but Penn State’s advantage over the Big Ten is defense and lots of it. They can hang with anyone and if Sean Clifford gets time enough in the pocket to get hot… they could win against anyone.  The big drawback is that Penn State had a three-game losing streak to Iowa, Illinois, and Ohio State (the best loss I ever watched anyone have, ever… and not because it paid more than my wife makes in 18 months as a school teacher in Los Angeles!)

Big plays in the MAC are rare but when I put them we always do well. This is my BEST BET in CFB for Tuesday and I am on a red hot 14-5 74% run in all sports. Grab this BEST BET here or lock into a long term pass and win more for less! Go get it!  Get Ben’s pick!!  It's available right now at the Shop Picks page, where you can find all of the Best Bets from our champion sports handicappers. All your NCAA Football needs for the entire college football season!

Michigan is ranked 25th in the FBS... scoring 38 TDs on 451.4 yards per game.  They are great in the run game with backup RB Blake Corum netting 778 yards on 130 carries, almost as much as starter Hassan Haskins.  Can they get their regular numbers away from the safe zone of Spartan Stadium in East Lansing? 

 

PSU is ranked 80th in the FBS on offense.  They have scored 27 TDs on 384.7 yards per game.  This is a pretty good ranking for a team that unabashedly hangs their hat on defense.

Our prediction for Saturday, November 13th, is… Penn State 28 - Michigan 24

This is really a bet for the over.  Because the line will fluctuate between PK and -1 on either side… do the Over.  Nov college football picks are tough… These teams will score touchdowns on each other.  The only question is will PSUs defense hold up the whole game if Michigan’s offense shows up?  For Michigan a loss would mean forgetting about the rest of the schedule.

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Michigan is 4-2 ATS when the line is -3 to +3 this season.

Michigan is 4-1 ATS after playing a conference game this season.

PSU is 6-3 ATS this season.

PSU is 8-4 ATS off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.

Michigan:  QB Cade McNamara, RB Hassan Haskins, TE Erick All, WR Daylen Baldwin, WR Cornelius Johnson, WR Mike Sainristil, LT Ryan Hayes, LG Karsen Barnhart, OC Andrew Vastardis, Rg Chuck Filiaga, RT Andrew Stueber

PSU: QB Sean Clifford, RB Noah Cain, TE Brenton Strange, WR Jahan Dotason, Wr KeAndre Lambert-Smith, WR Parker Washington, LT Rasheed Walker, LG Eric Wilson, OC Mike Miranda, RG Juice Scruggs, RT Caedan Wallace

Stat Leaders

MI

Passing Yards: Cade McNamarra 1,666

Rushing Yards: Hassan Haskins 829

Receiving Yards: Cornelius Johnson 449

Tackles: Josh Ross 61

Interceptions: Daxton Hill 2

PSU

Passing Yards: Sean Clifford 2,371

Rushing Yards: Noah Cain 293

Receiving Yards: Jahan Dotson 932

Tackles: Ellis Brooks 69

Interceptions: Ji’Ayir Brown 4

MI:  Jim Harbaugh.  He has an incredible record overall at Michigan, but is 0-6 against Ohio State, 3-4 against Michigan State and 3-3 against Penn State…. Or as everyone at Michigan says “Jim loses the ones that matter”.  Michigan State Football shouldn’t dominate Michigan.

PSU:  James Franklin.  USC wants this guy bad.  Maybe the pros want him?... Penn State is almost completely over him.  They can get a grad student to beat the Indiana Hoosiers or the Minnesota whoevers. Lookout Maryland Terrapins and Rutgers… Penn State loses its recruiting edge if Franklin leaves? He is the best coach that keeps missing the college football playoff… why?