Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/10/2025

Game Time: 5:10 pm ET, Thursday, July 10, 2025

Venue:  Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH

Where to Watch:  FDSFL, FDSOH

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Marlins +145, Reds -170; Over/Under:  9.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Marlins +145, Reds -170; Over/Under:  9.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Marlins +145, Reds -170; Over/Under:  9.5 runs

Miami Marlins:  42-48 (3rd place, NL East)

Cincinnati Reds:  46-46 (4th place, NL Central)

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Miami Marlins:  7-3 last 10

Cincinnati Reds:  3-7 last 10

The Marlins are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Milwaukee Brewers 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 42-48 record overall and have a road record of 22-21. This is the series finale of a 4-game series with the Reds on Thursday with the 3rd game still to be played on Wednesday. The Marlins won the series opener on Monday and the 2nd game on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 16th in the MLB with a .707 OPS. Sandy Alcantara is their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Cal Quantrill is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 3-7 with a 5.40 ERA this season. His team won their last 4 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 2 ER, 0 HR, and 1 BB with 6 SO on 6 hits through 3.2 IP against the Milwaukee Brewers.

The Reds are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 46-46 record overall and have a home record of 24-21. This is the 4th game of a 4-game series with the Marlins on Thursday with the 3rd game of this series still to be played on Wednesday. The Reds lost the 1st game of this series on Monday and the 2nd game on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 15th in the MLB with a .708 OPS. Andrew Abbott is their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Nick Lodolo is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 5-6 with a 3.58 ERA this season. His team won 3 of their last 4 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 3 earned runs, 2 homers, and 2 walks with 8 strikeouts on 4 hits through 6 innings pitched against the Philadelphia Phillies.

The current betting odds have the Reds listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Reds have looked good in their games this season with their 46-46 record overall, but that record has them right near the bottom of the NL Central in a competitive division. They have looked good in their own ballpark this year with their 24-21 home record. Meanwhile, the Marlins haven't looked great in their games this season with their 42-48 record overall which has them right near the bottom of the NL East. They have been a good road team though with their 22-21 road record this season. The Marlins have been red hot lately as they are 7-3 in their last 10 games while the Reds are 3-7 and have been in a slump, but the Reds do have the better pitching matchup here and can take advantage of that. The Reds are going with Lodolo in this one and he has looked good this season. He is 5-6 with a 3.58 ERA and hasn't been giving up as many runs lately. He did give up 3 earned runs in his last start, but he has looked a lot better at home this season and the team has still won 3 of their last 4 games with him starting. The Marlins are going with Quantrill in this one and he hasn't looked great this year. He is 3-7 with a 5.40 ERA and has been giving up quite a few runs lately. His team has won 4 games in a row now with him starting and he is coming off a good start in which he only gave up 2 earned runs, but that hasn't been a common theme for him this year and the Reds will be looking to break out of this slump. This is a good situation for the Reds to get a much needed bounce back win at home. The best way to place a bet here is on the Reds to win this game. 

Marlins Reds Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Thursday, July 10, 2025 (5:10 pm ET start time) is Reds 7 Marlins 6.

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Miami Marlins: 132-174 (+20.2 units) on the moneyline as an underdog of +100 or higher. 92-114 (+19.9 units) on the moneyline in road games. 135-162 (+10.7 units) on the moneyline vs. good fielding teams - averaging 0.6 errors/game or less. 33-16 UNDER on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5.

Cincinnati Reds: 100-106 (-15.9 units) on the moneyline in home games. 76-69 (-16.4 units) on the moneyline as a favorite of -110 or higher. 79-92 (-17.9 units) on the moneyline vs. an NL team with a slugging percentage of .400 or worse on the season. 24-9 UNDER at home vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game.

Miami Marlins:  M. Meyer (SP) Sixty Day IL - Hip. R. Weathers (SP) Sixty Day IL - Lat. J. Tinoco (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Forearm. R. Brantly (C) Sixty Day IL - Lat. G. Conine (LF) Sixty Day IL - Arm. A. Nardi (RP) Sixty Day IL - Back. B. Garrett (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

Cincinnati Reds:  I. Gibaut (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. J. Fraley (RF) Ten Day IL - Shoulder. W. Miley (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Flexor. H. Greene (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Groin. R. Lowder (SP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. C. Spiers (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. T. Callihan (LF) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. B. Williamson (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Aguiar (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

“I think that's a great recipe. We believe that we have a good team, and we're doing a lot of things well together right now. They're playing off each other very well and doing a lot of the little things well, and just really proud of how they're continuing to buy-in and take high quality at-bats.” - Clayton McCullough after his team’s win against the Reds in their game on Tuesday.

“It was actually wonderful. He’s very deserving. His teammates were thrilled for him. On a tough night, that was the one really bright shining spot for us.” - Terry Francona on Abbott making the All-Star team after his team’s loss against the Marlins in their game on Tuesday.

Xavier Edwards (S) 2B

Jesús Sánchez (L) RF

Otto Lopez (R) SS

Agustín Ramírez (R) C

Kyle Stowers (L) LF

Connor Norby (R) 3B

Liam Hicks (L) 1B

Heriberto Hernandez (R) DH

Dane Myers (R) CF

TJ Friedl (L) CF

Matt McLain (R) 2B

Elly De La Cruz (S) SS

Austin Hays (R) DH

Gavin Lux (L) LF

Spencer Steer (R) 1B

Will Benson (L) RF

Jose Trevino (R) C

Noelvi Marte (R) 3B

Batting Average:  Rob Brantly (.429)

Hits:  Xavier Edwards (87)

Home Runs:  Kyle Stowers (16)

RBI:  Kyle Stowers (48)

Stolen Bases:  Xavier Edwards (15)

Wins:  Ronny Henriquez (5)

Saves:  Calvin Faucher (8)

ERA:  Freddy Tarnok (0.00)

Batting Average:  Austin Wynns (.400)

Hits:  Elly De La Cruz (97)

Home Runs:  Elly De La Cruz (18)

RBI:  Elly De La Cruz (60)

Stolen Bases:  Elly De La Cruz (22)

Wins:  Brady Singer (7)

Saves:  Emilio Pagán (19)

ERA:  Andrew Abbott (2.15)

Managers:

Miami Marlins: Clayton McCullough (1st season)

Cincinnati Reds: Terry Francona (1st season)