by Chuck Sommers
Thursday, Feb 23, 2023
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI
Where to watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Bucks -1
FanDuel: Bucks -1.5
BetMGM: NL
Caesars: Bucks -1
Season record
Heat: 32-27
Bucks: 41-17
The All-Star break is over in the NBA and it's time to get on the horse and finish up the final home stretch of the season. Big trades, uncertainty, and absolute hilarity across the board all gearing up for the final home stretch of this season. You know who is also gearing up for the home stretch? Our champion handicappers at bigal.com who are ready to win their way all the way to the playoffs. There's a lot going on that we can't wait for in these final 23-25 games and you're going to need every bit of hardcore analysis you can get from this group. Just in the last 30 days we've had some big winners. Doc's Sports has posted a 16-6-0 record in the last month (+$9,200). AAA Sports has killed it at 17-8-0, and then Al McMordie with a dominant 20-11-1 mark over the last 30 days. Everything you need to know and more about what's going on this league and sports in general will be a fun finish to the end. All you have to do is go to bigal.com and find our Best Bets page and put forth something that only you think is good. Here's a hint: Go to the bigal.com website and happy betting!
Heat - Bucks preview, prediction and analysis
Recent form
Heat: lost 116-105 at Nets
Bucks: won 12 straight; won 112-100 at Bulls
Eyes will be on the Milwaukee Bucks coming out of the All-Star break for a number of reasons. One is the health of Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is dealing with a sprained wrist ligament after trying to tough it out during the All-Star break. Good on him for trying to do right by the fans, but sheesh, what timing that came.
Eyes will be on the Milwaukee Bucks coming out of the All-Star break for a number of reasons. One is the health of Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is dealing with a sprained wrist ligament after trying to tough it out during the All-Star break. Good on him for trying to do right by the fans, but sheesh, what timing that came.
And now as the Bucks enter the second half playing the Miami Heat on Friday at Fiserv Forum, the likelihood of Giannis not playing is likely, the Bucks are gearing up for a stretch run and are re-tooling after adding Jae Crowder following the Brooklyn-Phoenix swap for Kevin Durant. Adding Crowder in the lineup and adding a defensive trio of death of Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton and Crowder is going to be a nightmare for opposition.
The Bucks entered the All-Star break winners of 12 straight and capped it off with a 112-100 win over the Chicago Bulls at United Center. With Giannis out of the lineup, it was Brook Lopez being the dominant frontcourt presence with 33 points and seven rebounds to push the Bucks to 41-17.
Jevon Carter had 22 points to go with six rebounds and six assists, and Holiday was one assist away from a double-double with 15 points. Milwaukee still shot 45 percent and went 18 of 47 from 3-point range without Antetokounmpo.
“He's a guy that's attacking the basket all the time,” Budenholzer said of Antetokounmpo. “He's fearless. He takes a lot of falls so you kind of learn to just expect him to always just bounce back up, and that's what we're hoping for from this one.”
The Bucks are just a half game back of the Boston Celtics for the top spot in the Eastern Conference, and the recent run of winning has put them 2.5 games ahead of the Philadelphia 76ers. This winning streak won’t last forever, but they are absolutely playing well at the right time.
Their opponent needs to go on a winning streak. The Heat dropped two straight going into the break and capped it off with a 116-105 loss to the revamped Brooklyn Nets, notably giving up 45 points from Mikal Bridges. All five starters scored in double figures led by Bam Adebayo’s 24 points and 13 rebounds, and Gabe Vincent had 21 points. Just no one, not even Jimmy Butler, had an answer for Bridges.
“We've got 23 to go to get to where we need to get to,” Butler said. “It’s all about being healthy, which is what going into this break is going to do for us, come out swinging for the fences in the right way.”
The Heat are comfortably sitting in seventh in the East, three games clear of the Atlanta Hawks in the play-in round. They’re only a half-game back of the New York Knicks, and the Nets’ uncertainty still comes into question. A healthy Miami team is still capable of going on a run. That would require Kyle Lowry getting back to full strength.
Prediction
It’s a day-to-day approach for Giannis in the lineup and if he can’t go, it’s going to be a problem. If the Bucks can win with defense, that’s going to say a lot in these final 24 games. Bucks 110, Heat 104
Betting trends
Heat are 13-17 ATS on the road this season.
Heat are 31-25 ATS off a road loss the last 3 seasons.
Bucks are 12-3 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season.
Bucks are 16-11 ATS off an under this season.
Projected starting lineup
Heat:
PG: Gabe Vincent
SG: Victor Oladipo
SF: Caleb Martin
PF: Jimmy Butler
C: Bam Adebayo
Bucks:
PG: Jrue Holiday
SG: Grayson Allen
SF: Khris Middleton
PF: Giannis Antetokounmpo
C: Brook Lopez
Injury report
Heat: Kyle Lowry (knee, out)
Bucks: Giannis Antetokounmpo (wrist, limited), Khris Middleton (knee, probable)
Statistical leaders
Heat:
Points: Jimmy Butler -- 21.7
Rebounds: Bam Adebayo -- 10.0
Assists: Kyle Lowry -- 5.3
Bucks:
Points: Giannis Antetokounmpo -- 31.8
Rebounds: Giannis Antetokounmpo -- 12.2
Assists: Jrue Holiday -- 7.1
Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert basketball picks today. And if you enjoyed this Miami Heat - Milwaukee Bucks prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily NBA projections and previews.
Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
