Miami Heat vs Memphis Grizzlies Prediction, Preview and Odds - 03/15/2025

Game Time: 8:00 pm ET, Saturday, March 15, 2025

Venue:  FedExForum, Memphis, TN 

Where to Watch:  FDSSE

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Heat +7, Grizzlies -7; Over/Under:  229 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Heat +7, Grizzlies -7; Over/Under:  229 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Heat +7, Grizzlies -7; Over/Under:  229 points

Miami Heat:  29-36 (3rd place, Southeast Division)

Memphis Grizzlies:  42-24 (1st place, Southwest Division)

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Miami Heat:  3-7 last 10

Memphis Grizzlies:  5-5 last 10

The Heat are entering this game with a 29-36 record overall this season and they are 13-20 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 5 game losing streak with losses coming against the Cleveland Cavaliers, the Minnesota Timberwolves, the Chicago Bulls, the Charlotte Hornets, and the Los Angeles Clippers, but this is also the 2nd game of a back-to-back for them with their game against the Boston Celtics still to be played on Friday night. In their game against the LA Clippers, Tyler Herro led the team in points in that game with 31 while Andrew Wiggins was next on the team with 22 points. Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro each led the team in assists in that game with 7 while Bam Adebayo and Kel'el Ware each led the team in rebounds with 7. They were 47.6% from the field, 37.8% from 3-point range, and 71.4% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 109.9 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 110.6 PPG against them. The Heat have an ATS record of 28-36-1 this season and their O/U record is 34-31.

The Grizzlies are entering this game with a 42-24 record overall this season and they are 24-10 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 4 game winning streak with wins coming against the Dallas Mavericks, the New Orleans Pelicans, the Phoenix Suns, and the Utah Jazz, but this is also the 2nd game of a back-to-back for them with their game against the Cleveland Cavaliers still to be played on Friday night. In their game against the Jazz, Luke Kennard led the team in points in that game with 30 while Ja Morant was next on the team with 28 points. Desmond Bane led the team in assists in that game with 9 while Lamar Stevens led the team in rebounds with 6. They were 45.7% from the field, 45.5% from 3-point range, and 76.2% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 122.6 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 116.7 PPG against them. The Grizzlies have an ATS record of 36-29-1 this season and their O/U record is 38-28.

The current betting odds have the Grizzlies listed as a 7 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Grizzlies have looked really good in their games this season with their 42-24 record overall which has them right near the top of the West and in a playoff spot. They have looked great on their home court too with their 24-10 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Heat haven't looked good in their games this season with their 29-36 record overall which has them in the bottom half of the East, but that record still has them in a spot for the play-in tournament. They have been a terrible road team too with their 13-20 road record this season. They haven't looked good in their games lately either, going 3-7 in their last 10 games and losing 5 games in a row now. They haven't looked good at all since losing Jimmy Butler in a trade, and they are in a terrible situation here as they are playing this game on a back-to-back with a tough game against the Celtics on Friday night. The Grizzlies are also in a bad situation here since they are playing on a back-to-back too and they also have a really tough game against the Cavaliers on Friday. The Grizzlies are better to handle this situation though since they have a lot more talent than the Heat do and they have more depth to deal with this back-to-back. The Grizzlies have also been playing well lately with 4 wins in a row now. The Heat have been dropping down the standings lately and this is a terrible situation for them to be in with back-to-back games against top teams in the NBA. They also have to travel for this game while the Grizzlies are at home for both. The best way to place a bet here is on the Grizzlies to cover the spread in this game. 

Heat Grizzlies Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Saturday, March 15, 2025 (8:00 pm ET start time) is Grizzlies 113 Heat 97.

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Miami Heat: 21-36 ATS versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game. 31-48 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 116+ points/game. 17-10 UNDER after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games. 31-23 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%).

Memphis Grizzlies: 51-34 ATS in non-conference games. 21-8 1H ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. 23-15 UNDER when playing on back-to-back days. 29-22 UNDER when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%).

Miami Heat:  A. Burks (SG) Out - Back. N. Jović (PF) Out - Hand. D. Smith Out For Season - Achilles.

Memphis Grizzlies:  S. Aldama (PF) Out - Calf. J. Jackson (C) Day To Day - Ankle. Z. Pullin Out - Knee.

“It just didn’t look right against this team, to start two bigs. It’s not necessarily an indictment on Kel’el. But we weren’t able to take advantage of it. We’ve been working on these things. So we didn’t go that way in the second half. There were stretches that looked OK. But Zubac kind of had his way there in the paint.” - Erik Spoelstra after his team’s loss against the LA Clippers in their game on Wednesday.

“I’m aware of our inability right now to stretch leads, but it’s kind of the nature of the season right now. Got to give credit to the four teams that we played. Everyone is playing for different reasons, but these guys are coming out and playing extremely hard.” - Taylor Jenkins after his team’s win against the Jazz in their game on Wednesday.

PG Davion Mitchell

SG Tyler Herro

SF Andrew Wiggins

PF Bam Adebayo

C Kel'el Ware

PG Ja Morant

SG Desmond Bane

SF Jaylen Wells

PF GG Jackson

C Zach Edey

PPG: T. Herro (23.9)

APG: T. Herro (5.7)

Reb/G: B. Adebayo (10)

PPG: J. Jackson (22.7)

APG: J. Morant (7.5)

Reb/G: Z. Edey (7.8)

Coaches:

Miami Heat: Erik Spoelstra (17th season)

Memphis Grizzlies: Taylor Jenkins (6th season)