by Chuck Sommers
Monday, Jan 16, 2023
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Venue: State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA
Where to watch: TNT
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Heat -1.5; MIA -120, ATL +100
FanDuel: Heat -1.5; MIA -118, ATL +100; O/U 223.5
BetMGM: Heat -1.5; MIA -120, ATL +100
Caesars: Heat -1; MIA -120, ATL +100; O/U 223
Season record
Heat: 24-20
Hawks: 21-22
We’re nearing the halfway mark of the season in the NBA and it’s been quite the ride so far. Al McMordie is cashing hard at 22-15-0 in the last 30 days, while Doc’s Sports has also had a strong run of form as of late at 14-10-0 (+$3,000). If they’ve been killing it as much as they were in the first half, what does the second half have in store? The only way you’re going to find out is by staying locked on bigal.com and following what our champion handicappers are up to heading into the final 41 games. Trust us, you want to know.
Heat - Hawks preview, prediction and analysis
Recent form
Heat: won 111-95 vs. Bucks
Hawks: won 114-103 at Raptors
Two teams in the Eastern Conference both in need of consistent success, the Atlanta Hawks will return home after a short, successful road trip to host the Miami Heat on Monday.
After an up-and-down few weeks to start 2023, the Hawks got back-to-back tough wins over Indiana (via a John Collins buzzer beater) then followed that on the second night of a back-to-back with travel to Toronto and won 114-103 on Saturday.
Trae Young and Dejounte Murray got back to All-Star form with 29 and 27 points respectively, and Murray added eight rebounds and six assists while Young dished out nine in the victory. The Hawks shot 51 percent from the floor while going 11 of 27 from deep. This was the game the Hawks have waited for from their All-Star backcourt. So much so that the Hawks are now 21-22 and sitting ninth in the East.
“We just want to continue to grow and get better, game by game,” Young said. “It’s not going to be great every night, but we’ll definitely have nights like tonight where we can control the game and take over when we need to.”
It’s been a rough few weeks for the Hawks, but this 4-2 run in the last six weeks (and 3-3 against the spread) has instilled some short-term faith that Atlanta might have turned the corner at the right time. They’ve pushed to only 2.5 games back from the cutoff line at No. 6 where the New York Knicks reside, so plenty of time to get going.
“This is probably our best road trip,” Hawks coach Nate McMillan said. “I know it’s only two games, but to go into Indiana and win there, and Toronto is always a tough place to play on a back-to-back.”
The Heat have also started to win a few games here and there, winning three straight while coming off a two-game home series sweep of the Giannis Antetokounmpo-less Milwaukee Bucks. Miami took care of business on Thursday with a 108-102 win, then followed that with a 111-95 win two days later. A 112-111 win over the Oklahoma City Thunder back on Tuesday preceded that.
Gabe Vincent scored a game-high 27 points and went 11 of 14 from the floor, and Bam Adebayo added 20 points and 13 rebounds for another star-like night from the Miami big man. Victor Oladipo turned back the clock with 20 points on 8 of 17 shooting, and Jimmy Butler also chipped in with 16.
“I think I was just in a rhythm and my guys did a really good job of getting me open,” said Vincent, who shot 5 of 8 from 3-point range. “And I made some shots, which is helpful. I’m trying to stay aggressive. Just trying to impact any way I can.”
It hasn’t been a perfect run of form for the Heat either, but winning six of eight is a good barometer to have. Even if you go back to 10 games, they’re 7-3 both straight-up and against the spread.
This game is ultimately going to be a big one for the East standings. The Heat are 24-20 and sitting seventh in the East, one game back of the Knicks for that sixth spot. Especially with tiebreaker implications in this game, it’s going to be a good one.
“I feel like in this stretch, we’ve been enjoying basketball,” Adebayo said. “You see it on the court. We’re way more connected than we’ve been since the beginning of the season.”
Prediction
Miami did good by getting those two Milwaukee wins but they were both without Giannis. The Hawks are returning home after a good road trip and at some point, the momentum will carry with them. Hawks 104, Heat 102
Betting trends
Heat are 40-27 ATS after an under the last 2 seasons.
Heat are 9-19 ATS as a favorite this season.
Hawks are 3-13 ATS after a game they covered this season.
Projected starting lineup
Heat:
PG: Gabe Vincent
SG: Tyler Herro
SF: Max Strus
PF: Jimmy Butler
C: Bam Adebayo
Hawks:
PG: Trae Young
SG: Dejounte Murray
SF: De’Andre Hunter
PF: John Collins
C: Onyeka Okongwu
Injury report
Heat: Kyle Lowry (knee, out), Caleb Martin (quad, out), Duncan Robinson (finger, out)
Hawks: Clint Capela (calf, questionable)
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
