by Chuck Sommers
Monday, Nov 08, 2021
Game time: 7 p.m. ET
Venue: Vanderbilt Stadium, Nashville, TN
Where to watch: ESPN2
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Kentucky -21
BetMGM: Kentucky -21.5
Caesars: Kentucky -21
Season record
No. 18 Kentucky: 6-3 (4-3 SEC)
Vanderbilt: 2-7 (0-5 SEC)
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Kentucky - Vanderbilt preview and analysis
Last week
Kentucky: lost 45-42 vs. Tennessee
Vanderbilt: lost 37-28 vs. Missouri
The Kentucky Wildcats’ chances at making a run for college football prominence has run out of steam faster than anyone could’ve imagined.
Kentucky may not be competing for a conference championship or College Football Playoff happenings in January, but at least UK is still around with a chance to turn things around.
The Wildcats will get that chance on Saturday when they visit the two-win Vanderbilt Commodores with a prime opportunity to get things back on track.
Just a month ago, Kentucky was coming off a three-touchdown win at home against the LSU Tigers. Things were looking great. Kentucky was 6-0 and pushing for a top-10 spot in the AP Top 25, all while possibly being the biggest threat to the Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC.
Well, Georgia quickly put that to rest with a 17-point win in Athens.
Then Kentucky lost by 14 at Mississippi State two weeks later.
And now Kentucky is losing by three at home to the Tennessee Volunteers, what is happening? Why is up down and north is south?
This is the fickle drama of college football and now Kentucky is officially removed from Cinderella status. Tennessee quarterback Hendon Hooker outdueled Will Levis; Hooker threw for 316 yards on 15 of 20 passing to go with four touchdowns, while Levis threw for 372 yards and three touchdowns on 31 completions, but also threw an interception.
In hindsight, maybe Kentucky should’ve kept feeding the ball to Chris Rodriguez, who ran for 109 yards on just 22 carries. If that meant keeping the Vols’ offense off the field and trying to burn the clock, maybe that could’ve helped. But even with Wan’Dale Robinson catching 13 receptions for 166 yards and a touchdown, nothing seems sacred in the world of Lexington.
But perhaps Kentucky can rebound against a Vanderbilt team that has been a mess for the majority of this season. Vanderbilt did defeat the Connecticut Huskies over a month ago for what was deemed a program-defining win for those paying attention to the bottom half of the college football world, but the Commodores’ defense has taken another backstep over the last four games.
Vanderbilt has been outscored 165-54 over the last four games, most recently a nine-point loss to the Missouri Tigers at home. Vanderbilt scored 28 points, which comes off as an impressive day for a team that averages less than 15 points per game. Vanderbilt’s offense did get a decent game from quarterback Mike Wright, with 122 passing yards and three touchdowns, while also adding a team-high 152 rushing yards on 14 carries.
But that Vanderbilt defense we talked about? Gave up 254 yards and two touchdowns on the ground to Missouri star running back Tyler Badie.
Vanderbilt’s season cannot end sooner enough.
Prediction
We’ll just put this in the universe now: Kentucky should win this game and win comfortably, and we’ll stick with that. The problem is if Kentucky doesn’t cover, what in the world happens? The Wildcats need to take three games worth of frustration out on an anemic Vanderbilt team, and if they don’t, there may be a problem. Kentucky by 24
Betting trends
Kentucky is 4-1 ATS as a favorite this season.
Kentucky is 4-0 ATS in its last four after scoring 42 points or more the previous game.
Vanderbilt is 2-23 straight up as an underdog the past three seasons, while 9-16 ATS in that stretch.
Vanderbilt is 3-14 ATS at home in its past 17.
Statistical leaders
Kentucky:
Passing: Will Levis -- 1,848 yards, 17 TD, 10 INT
Rushing: Chris Rodriguez -- 918 yards, 5 TD
Receiving: Wan’Dale Robinson -- 811 yards, 6 TD
Defense: J.J. Weaver -- 6.5 sacks
Vanderbilt:
Passing: Ken Seals -- 1,086 yards, 5 TD, 7 INT
Rushing: Rocko Griffin -- 296 yards, 2 TD
Receiving: Will Sheppard -- 466 yards, 3 TD
Defense: Ethan Barr -- 64 tackles, 2 INT
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
