by Rod Pearson
Wednesday, Nov 20, 2024
Game Time: 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, November 23, 2024
Venue: Darrell K Royal Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX
Where to Watch: ABC
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Kentucky +21, Texas -21; Over/Under: 47 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Kentucky +20.5, Texas -20.5; Over/Under: 47 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Kentucky +20.5, Texas -20.5; Over/Under: 47.5 points
Season Record
Kentucky Wildcats: 4-6 (1-6) (15th place, SEC)
Texas Longhorns: 9-1 (5-1) (1st place, SEC)
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Recent Form
Kentucky Wildcats: won their last game at home against the Murray State Racers 48-6.
Texas Longhorns: won their last game on the road against the Arkansas Razorbacks 20-10.
Kentucky Wildcats vs Texas Longhorns Preview and Analysis
Kentucky is entering this game with a 4-6 record overall and they have a 1-6 record in their conference games too. They are 3-4 in their home games, 1-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against Murray State 48-6. Brock Vandagriff was the starting QB and he completed 12/19 passes for 183 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Jamarion Wilcox led the team in rushing yards with 123 and 1 TD. Hardley Gilmore IV led the receivers with 72 receiving yards on 2 receptions and 1 TD. Tre'Vonn Rybka led the defense in that game with 3 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Tre'Vonn Rybka led the defense in sacks with 1. Jordan Lovett came away with 2 interceptions for them in that one.
Texas is entering this game with a 9-1 record overall and they have a 5-1 record in their conference games too. They are 5-1 in their home games, 3-0 in their road games, and they are also 1-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against Arkansas 20-10. Quinn Ewers was the starting QB and he completed 20/32 passes for 176 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Jaydon Blue led the team in rushing yards with 83. Isaiah Bond led the receivers with 48 receiving yards on 4 receptions. Jahdae Barron led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while Colin Simmons led the defense in sacks with 2. Jahdae Barron came away with the only interception for them in that one.
Kentucky vs Texas Prediction
The current betting odds have Texas listed as a 21 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Texas has looked really good in their games this season with their 9-1 record overall and their 5-1 conference record which has them right at the top of the SEC and in this playoff race. It is a really tight race in the SEC and Texas will be looking to win the SEC Championship in their 1st season of being in the conference too so they can't really afford to lose another game. Meanwhile, Kentucky has looked terrible in their games this season with their 4-6 record overall and their 1-6 conference record which has them right near the bottom of the SEC with one of the worst records in the conference. Their only win was an upset win over Ole Miss at the start of conference play, but they haven't looked good in their games lately. They are coming off a win against a team from the FCS in their last one, but they have been blown out by some of the stronger teams they have faced this season. Texas is coming off a nice 10 point win over Arkansas in a road game last week and they have looked a lot better in their home games. They have blown out many opponents at home this season, including their last game at home which saw them crush Florida with a big offensive game. Texas has the offense to run away with this game at home and they are not going to take their foot off the gas with the finish line around the corner. The best way to place a bet here is on Texas to cover the spread in this game.
Kentucky Texas Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, November 23, 2024 (3:30 pm ET start time) is Texas 42 Kentucky 14.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Kentucky Wildcats: 2-8 1H ATS off a home win. 3-6 1H ATS after allowing 14 points or less last game. 5-11 1H ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins. 23-13 UNDER in all lined games. 6-3 UNDER as a road underdog. 8-3 UNDER off a home win. 14-7 UNDER after playing a game at home.
Texas Longhorns: 12-6 ATS in home lined games. 7-2 ATS off a road win. 9-2 ATS after playing their last game on the road. 10-4 ATS after allowing 14 points or less last game. 12-6 UNDER in home lined games. 7-3 UNDER as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points. 5-1 UNDER when the total is between 42.5 and 49.
Key Injuries
Kentucky Wildcats: G. Mincey (OL) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Weaver (OLB) Questionable - Undisclosed. B. Brown (WR) Questionable - Ribs. J. Dumas-Johnson (LB) Out - Undisclosed. K. Saunders (DL) Out - Undisclosed. D. Walker (DT) Out - Undisclosed. D. Waller (DB) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Jackson (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Henry-Young (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Dunn (DB) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Brown (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed.
Texas Longhorns: J. Blue (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Moore (WR) Questionable - Foot. C. Vasek (DE) Questionable - Undisclosed. M. Blackwell (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. V. Gardner (RB) Out - Undisclosed. T. Owens (QB) Out - Lower Body. D. Williams (DB) Out - Lower Body. C. Clark (RB) Out - Achilles. C. Baxter (RB) Out - Knee.
Notable Quotes
“Another great challenge going into Texas. Coach Sark has them playing at a very high level. A very good football team that he’s been building for some time. It’s evident they have a lot of continuity.” - Mark Stoops on his team’s upcoming game against Texas this week.
“When you just don’t have as many opportunities, you’ve got to try to maximize them when you get them. Him taking care of the football, converting on third downs and what a play ... on fourth down to kind of seal the game. I was proud of him for that.” - Steve Sarkisian after his team’s win against Arkansas in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Kentucky Wildcats
WR Brown, Barion
WR Key, Dane
WR Maclin, Ja'Mori
TE Kattus, Josh
TE Dingle, Jordan
QB Vandagriff, Brock
RB Sumo-Karngbaye, Demie
Texas Longhorns
WR Bond, Isaiah
WR Golden, Matthew
WR Moore Jr., DeAndre
TE Helm, Gunnar
QB Ewers, Quinn
RB Wisner, Quintrevion
Statistical Leaders
Kentucky Wildcats
Passing: B. Vandagriff (1542)
Rushing: D. Sumo-Karngbaye (505)
Receiving: D. Key (686)
Touchdowns: D. Sumo-Karngbaye (5)
Texas Longhorns
Passing: Q. Ewers (1898)
Rushing: Q. Wisner (468)
Receiving: G. Helm (493)
Touchdowns: J. Blue (8)
Coaches:
Kentucky Wildcats: Mark Stoops (12th season)
Texas Longhorns: Steve Sarkisian (4th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
