by Chuck Sommers
Monday, Jan 23, 2023
Time: 9 p.m. ET
Venue: Ferrell Center, Waco, TX
Where to watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Baylor -2.5; BAY -150, KU +130
FanDuel: Baylor -2.5; BAY -154, KU +122
BetMGM: Baylor -2.5
Caesars: Baylor -2.5; BAY -130, KU +110
Season record
No. 2 Kansas: 16-3 (5-2 Big 12)
No. 21 Baylor: 14-5 (4-3 Big 12)
We’re nearing the halfway mark of the college basketball season and it’s been quite the ride so far. Will Rogers is going hard in the last 30 days with a 16-10-1 run, while Kyle Hunter has also had a strong run of form as of late at 28-24-0 (+$1,700). If they’ve been killing it as much as they were in the first half, what does the second half have in store? The only way you’re going to find out is by staying locked on bigal.com and following what our champion handicappers are up to heading into the second half. Trust us, you want to know.
Kansas - Baylor preview, prediction and analysis
Recent form
Kansas: lost 83-60 vs. No. 13 TCU
Baylor: won 62-60 at Oklahoma
Following a rare stint of losing back-to-back games over the weekend and seemingly on the way out of the top 10, the Kansas Jayhawks will look to get back on the winning track against the Baylor Bears on Monday at Ferrell Center in Waco.
Following a rare stint of losing back-to-back games over the weekend and seemingly on the way out of the top 10, the Kansas Jayhawks will look to get back on the winning track against the Baylor Bears on Monday at Ferrell Center in Waco.
It was a rare off weekend for coach Bill Self’s team, starting with an 83-82 road loss to Kansas State on Jan. 17, then returning home over the weekend and losing by a resounding 83-60 to the TCU Horned Frogs on Saturday. While these losses should not be considered a stranglehold to what happens to Kansas’ national prospects this year, the mighty of the Big 12 have fallen.
Jalen Wilson scored 30 points to lead Kansas, but if you do the math, that’s exactly half of the Jayhawks’ points in the loss to TCU. Kansas shot 39% from the floor and just 7 of 21 from 3-point range while managing to get to the free-throw line 11 times (making seven).
“Everything they did was perfect today,” Self said of TCU’s effort. “They played great. They’re so fast and so athletic off the bench. We actually got a ton of good looks in the first half. We missed a lot of layups. We have to be able to defend somebody, and we never defended them today.”
You could chalk this up being up to playing the defending national champions, but it’s a major part in what’s staring the Jayhawks in the face this spring. Six teams are ranked in the top 25 from the Big 12, including their opponent on Monday, with no room for error in the conference. This is shaping up to being the most successful run the Big 12 has had in ages, and Kansas isn’t even primed to the be the top dogs yet. That belongs to Kansas State with a 6-1 conference record at the moment.
“We couldn’t score,” Self said. “We didn’t guard very well and the good looks we had we missed."
Baylor, meanwhile, is on a winning run right now that has put the Bears back in the top 20 (likely higher after Monday’s rankings) after four winnable games. Baylor is coming off a 62-60 win over Oklahoma on Saturday, a game that wasn’t Baylor’s best effort but was just enough to get the win.
Adam Flagler led Baylor with 16 points, and Baylor shot just 36.2% from the floor but still won because Oklahoma shot 5 of 21 from 3-point range and only went to the free-throw line a grand total of four times. Jalen Bridges also had 11 points and hit a couple of big-time 3-pointers.
“Obviously, it helps when you have someone like that closing games,” Baylor coach Scott Drew said. “He’ll take tough shots and down the stretch, he made them. He also made the right pass down the stretch. You love having a guy you can trust.”
Baylor enters as favorites as high as 2.5 primarily due to Kansas’ recent failures. The Bears are 3-0-1 against the spread in their last four and are just 4-3-1 in their last eight on the books. Kansas, meanwhile, has lost four straight against the spread and are just 4-6-0 ATS in the last 10.
Prediction
I don’t want to be a prisoner of the moment, but all the signs point to Baylor winning this game. I can see Kansas rebounding on the road and getting a win, but the confidence seems to be a little bit shaky from the folks in Lawrence. Baylor 71, Kansas 67
Betting trends
Kansas is 33-18 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more since 1997.
Kansas is 10-1 ATS after a loss by 20 or more since 1997.
Baylor is 20-38 ATS at home after winning 4 of 5 since 1997.
Projected starting lineup
Kansas:
PG: Dajuan Harris Jr.
SG: Kevin McCullar
SF: K.J. Adams
PF: Jalen Wilson
C: Gradey Dick
Baylor:
PG: L.J. Cryer
SG: Adam Flagler
SF: Keyonte George
PF: Jalen Bridges
C: Flo Thamba
Statistical leaders
Kansas:
Points: Jalen Wilson -- 21.3
Rebounds: Jalen Wilson -- 8.8
Assists: Dajuan Harris -- 6.6
Baylor:
Points: Keyonte George -- 17.4
Rebounds: Jalen Bridges -- 5.5
Assists: Adam Flagler -- 5.3
Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert basketball picks today. And if you enjoyed this Kansas - Baylor prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily college basketball projections and previews.
Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
