Here are four National League starters that had good returns in July but may be at risk of seeing a decline in results in the coming weeks. There are still two months to go in the 2025 MLB regular season and there can be some short-term momentum shifts out of the All-Star Break and around the trade deadline that will impact the market, sometimes a bit too severely. Be careful with supporting these NL starters at potentially inflated prices.
Robbie Ray – San Francisco Giants
The Giants remain above .500 and in the NL playoff race but this has been a disappointing team in recent weeks. A bright spot seems to be the return of 2021 AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray to pitching at an elite level. Ray has made several successful starts in recent weeks but after a great run in late May, he has provided more average strikeout numbers in recent weeks even with a low ERA in July. Ray has a 5.11 FIP over his last five starts and his K/9 is just 7.0 next to a 4.1 BB/9. Ray has still had success as his BABIP in that run is just .185 alongside stranding 82 percent of his baserunners. Ray has pitched nearly 18 more innings at home this season with a favorable home ballpark for pitching and he shouldn’t be confused with the pitcher he was in his best years early in his career when he consistently was one of MLB’s top strikeout producers. There isn’t much to like about the momentum for the Giants with July being a third straight losing month for the team and Ray will command a premium he doesn’t deserve down the stretch.
Merrill Kelly – Arizona Diamondbacks
It will be interesting to see what is left of the Diamondbacks after the trade deadline and Kelly is one of the players that has a good chance of being dealt in the final season of a three-year deal. Kelly missed much of last season and has seemingly returned to his 2023 form, but his K/9 has dropped considerably, he just has enjoyed a .247 BABIP that is well below his career average. Kelly has likely earned himself some money and possibly Arizona some better prospects in a deal with a nice run since June, posting a 2.56 ERA in his last 10 starts. Kelly has benefited from many favorable matchups in that run and his FIP is about a run higher than his ERA. Kelly has allowed only six home runs in those 10 starts compared to the 1.34 HR/9 rate he had last season and while Kelly would be a solid mid-rotation option for many teams, he is far from an ace and likely doesn’t deserve his nice 9-6, 3.22 ERA line that will be difficult to match down the stretch, wherever he winds up pitching.
Spencer Strider – Atlanta Braves
It has been an absolute disaster of the season for the Braves, but a bright spot is Spencer Strider taking regular turns in the rotation and pitching well. Strider was incredibly dominant in 2022 and 2023 for the Braves before UCL surgery last season. Strider hasn’t come close to matching his previous strikeout rates and he has struggled a bit with his command. Strider has allowed at least three runs in half of his starts this season and he had a 4.38 FIP in July with five home runs allowed in five starts. The Braves are one of the worst teams in baseball despite the high payroll and stars in the lineup and Strider isn’t worth supporting with ace status pricing right now. The Braves have the Brewers and Mets visiting in August for tough home draws, but this will also be a risky team to support in upcoming home games vs. the Marlins and White Sox in which Strider could be a healthy favorite. The priority for the Braves will be 2026 as Strider’s outings are likely to get shorter as the end of the season nears and the Braves are officially eliminated from the playoff race.
Brandon Woodruff – Milwaukee Brewers
Woodruff has been a solid starter when healthy for Milwaukee, but he is going to face steep pricing moving forward with Milwaukee being one of the hottest teams in baseball in July and with amazing numbers in his first four starts back from injury. Woodruff has a 2.01 ERA with an 11.7 K/9 as everything has gone extremely well so far in his return to the mound. He has faced losing teams in three of those four starts and his FIP is 3.36, still good but a figure that is well above his ERA. Woodruff has allowed three home runs in his two home starts as well. In August the Brewers have 14 of their first 20 games on the road with a big gap in the home/road splits for the team this season and the bullpen has been pushed in recent weeks as the team has not let Woodruff or rookie Jacob Misiorowski pitch deep into games. Milwaukee has been on a roll in June and July, but the pace isn’t likely sustainable and Woodruff’s tiny ERA is going to make him a suspect road favorite in many upcoming starts in August.
