Here are four American League starters that had good returns in July but may be at risk of seeing a decline in results in the coming weeks. There are still two months to go in the 2025 MLB regular season and there can be some short-term momentum shifts out of the All-Star Break and around the trade deadline that will impact the market, sometimes a bit too severely. Be careful with supporting these AL starters at potentially inflated prices.
Brandon Walter – Houston Astros
At first glance one might assume Brandon Walter is another young pitcher climbing through the Houston system and having immediate success, but Walter is nearly 29 years old and a journeyman drafted in the 26th round by Boston back in 2019. Walter was terrible in 23 innings in 2023 for the Red Sox, but he has made the most of his opportunity with Houston this season. Walter has a 3.35 ERA but a 3.96 FIP while he rarely walks batters, he has been a home run risk in his limited action. Walter has a .252 BABIP and a nearly 85 percent strand rate as a lot has gone right so far in a small sample size. Walter has pitched six or more innings seven times in nine starts but he has mostly pitched away from Houston’s short-porch ballpark, and he has still allowed 10 home runs in nine starts. Houston’s lineup is greatly depleted with injuries right now and Walter is at risk to see his numbers balloon in the coming weeks especially when facing teams with significant right-handed power in the lineup in his Minute Maid Field starts.
Simeon Woods-Richardson – Minnesota Twins
After being pushed into a starting role for the Twins a bit ahead of his development schedule last season and producing adequate results, a step forward this season has not happened for Woods-Richardson and the Twins. His numbers have been slightly worse across the board this season, but he still has a respectable 4.24 ERA. It appears that Woods-Richardson is on the upswing with a 2.63 ERA in his last six starts but his FIP is 4.85 in that time and he has not pitched more than five innings in any of those starts as the Twins have not allowed him to see batters a third time, including having a start of fewer than five innings in each of his last three outings. Walks have been a big recent problem with a 4.6 BB/9 since late June, and while Woods-Richardson has gone 3-0 in decisions in that span, he remains the weakest option in a Twins rotation that has disappointed, while the Minnesota bullpen could get worse after the trade deadline.
Luis Castillo – Seattle Mariners
As a three-time All-Star, Luis Castillo has been an upper tier MLB starter for several seasons. After his numbers started to slide a big the past two seasons he now has a 3.19 ERA in 22 starts this season, led by a strong run since late June. Over his last six starts he is 4-1 with a 1.96 ERA, even without much of a bump in his strikeout rate. The difference has been zero home runs allowed after allowing a dozen in his first 16 starts of the season. Castillo has mediocre road splits this season with a 4.31 ERA, but the bulk of his innings have come at home this season. Including three of his last five starts coming at T-Mobile. Castillo has allowed five or more runs five times this season but his ERA has stayed low with many of those runs being unearned. Now at age 32, Castillo isn’t an All-Star caliber starter anymore and he will be overpriced at home with a Mariners lineup that has been inconsistent. While Seattle remains in a good AL playoff position, the record above .500 for Seattle is built on a great month of April and slight losing record since despite the Mariners grabbing headlines with acquisitions and the great home run results from Cal Raleigh.
Trevor Rogers – Baltimore Orioles
Rogers was a 1st round pick by the Marlins in 2017 but after being an erratic flamethrower early in his career posting big strikeout counts, Rogers has settled into nice run of results now with the Orioles. Rogers was picked up for the stretch run last season but pitched poorly in August before being shut down and while he has a 1.49 ERA in eight starts this season, nothing in the numbers suggests it will be a sustainable run of success. Rogers has been pitching in low stress starts for a disappointing Orioles team and he has faced a favorable path of mostly struggling teams including his great home numbers including starts vs. the Rockies and Marlins. Rogers has a 7.5 K/9 this season but has been fortunate to allow just two home runs in over 48 innings of work in a significant departure from his career rate. Rogers has also stranded almost 86 percent of his baserunners while benefitting from a .183 BABIP. The small sample has created a false profile of success for Rogers, and he shouldn’t be counted on down the stretch for an Orioles team likely to get weaker at the trade deadline.
