by Chuck Sommers
Friday, Mar 04, 2022
Time: 1 p.m. ET
Venue: Enterprise Center, St. Louis, MO
Where to watch: ESPN+
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: NL
BetMGM: NL
Caesars: NL
Season record
Illinois State: 13-19 (5-13 MVC)
Northern Iowa: 18-10 (14-4 MVC)
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Illinois State - Northern Iowa preview and analysis
Are we getting a chance to relieve Northern Iowa magic again? We’ll likely soon find out.
The Panthers, following an 18-10 season, won the Missouri Valley Conference regular season title with an incredible 14-4 run through conference play and are the No. 1 seed in the MVC tournament.
Quarterfinal play will begin on Friday when NIU takes on the Illinois State Redbirds.
Northern Iowa is coming into the tournament on a four-game winning streak that was capped off by a game-of-the-year candidate on Saturday against the Loyola Ramblers. A 102-96 overtime victory for Northern Iowa at home clinched the conference title behind 32 points from AJ Green with seven of them coming in overtime.
Green shot just 7 of 17 from the floor, but went 16 of 18 from the free-throw line to make up for that. Noah Carter had 24 points and seven rebounds, and Bowen Born chipped in with 20 points on 6 of 9 shooting off the bench.
Much like Green’s near-perfect display at the charity stripe, that was the theme for Northern Iowa in this epic game. The Panthers shot 35 of 42 from the free-throw line, compared to Loyola going just 18 of 20 from the line. Both teams shot over 50 percent, but Loyola stayed in the game because of going 16 of 32 from 3-point range.
We all remember the days of Ali Farokhmanesh stealing the hearts of everyone by leading Northern Iowa to the Sweet 16 over a decade ago. We’re not quite sure yet if this team has the similar magic to make such a run, but getting the No. 1 seed in the conference tournament is a great start.
Unfortunately for the lower-ranked teams in the conference tournament, Illinois State has the undesirable distinction of having to face the top team. The Redbirds are coming into conference tourney season on a high note, however, winning 86-66 against Indiana State on Saturday.
Antonio Reeves led the way with 28 points, and Howard Fleming Jr. finished with 20 to end a five-game losing streak. The Redbirds aren’t expected to go far in this one, and a win over Northern Iowa would certainly be up there for upset of the weekend.
Prediction
I would say once again to not overthink such a game. Northern Iowa has earned the right to be in the position it’s in, and I for one think that this group can make some noise should it get to March. We’ll see if they get there who they would match up with, but NIU is back and in March and things are fun again. Let’s see how it unfolds. Northern Iowa by 14
Betting trends
Illinois State is 24-31 ATS against conference opponents the past three seasons.
Illinois State is 7-17 ATS after a win the past three seasons.
Projected starting lineup
Illinois State:
PG: Howard Fleming
SG: Josiah Strong
SF: Antonio Reeves
PF: Kendall Lewis
C: Abdou Ndiaye
Northern Iowa:
PG: A.J. Green
SG: Nate Heise
SF: Tywhon Pickford
PF: Trae Berhow
C: Noah Carter
Statistical leaders
Illinois State:
Points: Antonio Reeves -- 20.2
Rebounds: Kendall Lewis -- 5.7
Assists: Mark Freeman -- 3.6
Northern Iowa:
Points: A.J. Green -- 19.1
Rebounds: Trae Berhow -- 5.0
Assists: A.J. Green -- 2.2
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
