by Chuck Sommers
Friday, Dec 02, 2022
Time: 9 p.m. ET
Venue: XFINITY Center, College Park, MD
Where to watch: BTN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Maryland -1.5
FanDuel: Maryland -1.5
BetMGM: Maryland -1.5
Caesars: Maryland -1.5
Season record
No. 16 Illinois: 6-1
No. 22 Maryland: 7-0
It’s been upsets galore in the world of college basketball, and if you thought the rankings were busted before, you haven’t seen anything yet. Nothing’s been certain to this point, and nothing might not be certain in who’s good or bad until much later down the line. Look no further than Gonzaga already falling down to No. 14 after two losses. No one ever really expects that. So what can we expect this weekend? Our champion handicappers no exactly how to make that happen. Jim Feist is 31-14-2 over the last month with a net of more than $15,000. How about Wayne Root? He’s off to a tremendous 23-11-0 run and has netted $11,000. You want in on this action too, right? Make sure to be following bigal.com for all the fun this college basketball season and take the advice of our champion handicappers!
Illinois - Maryland preview, prediction and analysis
Recent form
Illinois: won 73-44 vs. Syracuse on Tuesday
Maryland: won 79-54 at Louisville on Tuesday
Illinois analysis
It’s not often you get two high-scoring teams in the Big Ten, but with this matchup it should be a fun time. The Illinois Fighting Illini have just one loss to their ledger – one that they shouldn’t be ashamed of, a 70-61 loss to Virginia. Since then, the Illini have taken their frustrations out on the opponent. Illinois is coming off consecutive blowout victories, 92-59 against Lindenwood, and a more impressive 73-44 against the Syracuse Orange.
After a disappointing end to last season – and really, the last two seasons – the Illini are off to a 6-1 start where they are trying to get past the second round for the first time since 2013. Coach Brad Underwood has found a means to an end over the last six years, but this group is still trying to find its way.
After relying on Kofi Cockburn the last few years, who has since moved on to Japan if you didn’t know, it’s a different approach through the offense. Terrence Shannon is now the go-to guy and he’s playing like a Big Ten Player of the Year candidate through seven games. He’s averaging a shade under 20 points with six rebounds and almost 4 assists per game, all while shooting 49.4 percent from the floor.
Replacing the interior production of Cockburn is Dain Dainja and Coleman Hawkins. Dainja, in 18 minutes a game, is averaging 11.6 points while shooting 75 percent from the floor. Hawkins is also close to 6 rebounds a game (Dainja is at 6.3) with a block per game.
Shannon had his worst shooting performance of the year against Syracuse going 5 of 17, but still finished with a game-high 17 points for an Illinois team that found a way to shoot 35.8 percent from the floor and still scored 73 points. I can assure you that Illinois did nothing special to reach 73 points other than play strong defense. On a night where Skyy Clark even shot 0 of 10 from the floor, Illinois just held Syracuse to 27.8% from the floor.
Not sure if that’s sustainable, but it’s a good look.
Maryland analysis
Talk about a team that has a lot to prove, so far the Maryland Terrapins are proving it in the first year of Kevin Willard’s run in College Park. Maryland has run through its non-conference slate with ease, winning all of their games by 16 points or more. Safe to say that Illinois will be the toughest test the Terps see to this point.
Maryland hasn’t presented anything noticeable to the table outside of a balanced effort against some cupcake opponents. The Terps are led by power forward Donta Scott, averaging 16 points and a shade under 6.5 rebounds while shooting 51% from the field. Scott is one of four players averaging double figures for Maryland, including Jahmir Young, Julian Reese and Hakim Hart.
If anything, Maryland is proving it might have one of the most balanced starting fives in the Big Ten, conference play pending. Scott led the way with 18 points and five rebounds in Maryland’s 79-54 win over the downright pitiful Louisville Cardinals on Tuesday. No, I still can’t believe that Louisville has yet to win a game. It’s absurd at this point.
But Maryland has a lot to prove, and this game will be a good starting point to see where they are in the Big Ten pecking order.
Prediction
Illinois just has more proven talent, and this seems like the game Shannon can take over without a hitch. Maryland just doesn’t seem ready for prime time. Illinois by 10
Betting trends
Illinois is 6-0 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 the last 3 seasons.
Illinois is 12-4 ATS after a win by 10 points or more the last 2 seasons.
Illinois is 9-1 ATS after a win by 20 points or more the last 2 seasons.
Maryland is 32-12 ATS at home after covering 3 of their last 4 since 1997.
Maryland is 9-1 ATS after a win by 15 points or more the last 2 seasons.
Projected starting lineup
Illinois:
PG: Skyy Clark
SG: Terrence Shannon Jr.
SF: R.J. Melendez
PF: Matthew Mayer
C: Coleman Hawkins
Maryland:
PG: Jahmir Young
SG: Donald Carey
SF: Hakim Hart
PF: Donta Scott
C: Julian Reese
Statistical leaders
Illinois:
Points: Terrence Shannon Jr. – 19.9
Rebounds: Dain Dainja – 6.3
Assists: Coleman Hawkins – 4.4
Maryland:
Points: Donta Scott – 15.9
Rebounds: Julian Reese – 7.9
Assists: Jahmir Young – 3.4
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
