Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/18/2025

Game Time: 10:10 pm ET, Friday, July 18, 2025

Venue:  T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA 

Where to Watch:  SCHN, ROOT Sports NW

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Astros +119, Mariners -144; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Astros +115, Mariners -135; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Astros +115, Mariners -135; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

Houston Astros:  56-40 (1st place, AL West)

Seattle Mariners:  51-45 (2nd place, AL West)

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Houston Astros:  4-6 last 10

Seattle Mariners:  6-4 last 10

The Astros are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Texas Rangers 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 56-40 record overall and have a road record of 23-21. This is the series opener of a 3-game series with the Mariners on Friday. Their offense ranks 9th in the MLB with a .734 OPS. Hunter Brown was their starting pitcher on Sunday while Brandon Walter is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 1-2 with a 3.98 ERA this season. His team lost their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 2 ER, 2 HR, and 0 BB with 7 SO on 2 hits through 6 IP against the Cleveland Guardians.

The Mariners are entering this series off a win and completed the sweep in their 3-game series against the Detroit Tigers 3-0 in their last series. They enter this game with a 51-45 record overall and have a home record of 25-21. This is the 1st game of a 3-game series with the Astros on Friday. Their offense ranks 7th in the MLB with a .744 OPS. Logan Gilbert was their starting pitcher on Sunday while Luis Castillo is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 6-5 with a 3.41 ERA this season. His team won their last 4 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 3 earned runs, 0 homers, and 2 walks with 6 strikeouts on 6 hits through 5 innings pitched against the Detroit Tigers.

The current betting odds have the Mariners listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Mariners have looked good in their games this season with their 51-45 record overall which has them right near the top of the AL West. They have also looked good in their own ballpark this year with their 25-21 home record. Meanwhile, the Astros have looked great in their games this season with their 56-40 record overall which has them right at the top of the AL West with one of the best records in the entire MLB. They have also been a good road team this year with their 23-21 road record. As good as the Astros have been, they have been cooling off lately as they lost their last series before the All-Star break and they are only 4-6 in their last 10 games. The Mariners just swept the Tigers before the break though and they are 6-4 in their last 10 games. The Mariners are also going with Castillo in this one and he has been a solid starter for them this year. He is 6-5 with a 3.41 ERA and hasn't been giving up many runs all season. He did give up 3 earned runs in his last start, but the team has still won 4 games in a row now with him starting and he will be looking to come out of the break hot. Walter is on the mound for the Astros here and he is 1-2 with a 3.98 ERA, but he hasn't been their best option this season either. He only gave up 2 earned runs in his last start, but that hasn't been a common theme for him and even his team has struggled with him starting, losing 2 games in a row now. The Mariners are catching the Astros at the right time out of this break and they can take advantage of this pitching matchup at home. The best way to place a bet here is on the Mariners to win this game. 

Astros Mariners Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Friday, July 18, 2025 (10:10 pm ET start time) is Mariners 6 Astros 3.

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Houston Astros: 122-88 (+27.5 units) on the moneyline in road games. 64-45 (+31.7 units) on the moneyline as an underdog of +100 or higher. 128-98 (+17.9 units) on the moneyline when playing against a team with a winning record. 75-47 OVER vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game.

Seattle Mariners: 224-196 (-12.5 units) on the moneyline in all games. 158-115 (-11.5 units) on the moneyline as a favorite of -110 or higher. 50-56 (-11.5 units) on the moneyline when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%). 29-14 OVER revenging a loss vs opponent as a road favorite.

Houston Astros:  J. Meyers (CF) Ten Day IL - Calf. Z. Dezenzo (RF) Sixty Day IL - Hand. L. Guillorme (3B) Ten Day IL - Hamstring. Y. Alvarez (LF) Sixty Day IL - Hand. J. Pena (SS) Ten Day IL - Rib. S. Dubin (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Forearm. P. Leon (RF) Sixty Day IL - Knee. B. Rodgers (2B) Ten Day IL - Oblique. J. Melton (LF) Ten Day IL - Ankle. S. Arrighetti (SP) Sixty Day IL - Thumb. R. Blanco (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. C. McCormick (LF) Ten Day IL - Oblique. H. Wesneski (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. L. Garcia (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. C. Javier (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. France (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder.

Seattle Mariners:  B. Miller (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. C. Snider (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Forearm. G. Santos (RP) Sixty Day IL - Knee. V. Robles (RF) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. R. Bliss (2B) Sixty Day IL - Biceps.

“[We’re in] a really good spot. If we would have drawn this up and envisioned us having a strong first half compared to last year -- 16 games over .500, five games up in the division -- that’s exactly where a team that’s trying to achieve a goal of winning the division, that’s exactly where we wanted to be.” - Joe Espada on his team this season. 

“I'm a strong guy, so it’s been really learning how to hone it in and and take your hits when maybe you're not getting those pitches in the heart of the plate, being able to take your hits when they're pitching to the edge.” - Cal Raleigh on his strong season hitting HR’s. 

Isaac Paredes (R) DH

Cam Smith (R) RF

Jose Altuve (R) 2B

Christian Walker (R) 1B

Victor Caratini (S) C

Taylor Trammell (L) CF

Mauricio Dubón (R) 3B

Cooper Hummel (S) LF

Zack Short (R) SS

J.P. Crawford (L) SS

Julio Rodríguez (R) CF

Cal Raleigh (S) DH

Randy Arozarena (R) LF

Luke Raley (L) 1B

Mitch Garver (R) C

Dominic Canzone (L) RF

Ben Williamson (R) 3B

Cole Young (L) 2B

Batting Average:  Jeremy Peña (.322)

Hits:  Jeremy Peña (102)

Home Runs:  Isaac Paredes (19)

RBI:  Jose Altuve (52)

Stolen Bases:  Jeremy Peña (15)

Wins:  Framber Valdez (10)

Saves:  Josh Hader (25)

ERA:  Héctor Neris (0.00)

Batting Average:  Dominic Canzone (.319)

Hits:  J.P. Crawford (100)

Home Runs:  Cal Raleigh (38)

RBI:  Cal Raleigh (82)

Stolen Bases:  Julio Rodríguez (17)

Wins:  Bryan Woo (8)

Saves:  Andrés Muñoz (21)

ERA:  Sauryn Lao (0.00)

Managers:

Houston Astros: Joe Espada (2nd season)

Seattle Mariners: Dan Wilson (2nd season)