Houston Astros vs Miami Marlins Prediction, Preview and Odds - 08/06/2025

Game Time: 4:40 pm ET, Wednesday, August 6, 2025

Venue:  LoanDepot Park, Miami, FL

Where to Watch:  SCHN, FDSFL

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Astros -110, Marlins -110; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Astros -110, Marlins -110; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Astros -110, Marlins -110; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Houston Astros:  63-50 (1st place, AL West)

Miami Marlins:  55-56 (3rd place, NL East)

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Houston Astros:  3-7 last 10

Miami Marlins:  7-3 last 10

The Astros are entering this series off a loss and got swept in their 3-game series against the Boston Red Sox 3-0 in their last series. They enter this game with a 63-50 record overall and have a road record of 28-26. This is the series finale of a 3-game series with the Marlins on Wednesday with the 2nd game still to be played on Tuesday. The Astros won the series opener on Monday. Their offense ranks 12th in the MLB with a .725 OPS. Steven Okert is their starting pitcher on Tuesday while Spencer Arrighetti is making his start in this game on Wednesday. He is 1-1 with a 5.59 ERA this season. His team lost their last game this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 5 ER, 1 HR, and 3 BB with 3 SO on 3 hits through 3.2 IP against the Minnesota Twins.

The Marlins are entering this series off a win and completed the sweep in their 3-game series against the New York Yankees 3-0 in their last series. They enter this game with a 55-56 record overall and have a home record of 27-30. This is the 3rd game of a 3-game series with the Astros on Wednesday with the 2nd game of this series still to be played on Tuesday. The Marlins lost the 1st game of this series on Monday. Their offense ranks 16th in the MLB with a .712 OPS. Cal Quantrill is their starting pitcher on Tuesday while Janson Junk is making his start in this game on Wednesday. He is 5-2 with a 3.86 ERA this season. His team won their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 6 earned runs, 1 homer, and 1 walk with 4 strikeouts on 6 hits through 5 innings pitched against the New York Yankees.

The current betting odds have the Marlins listed as a pick 'em in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Marlins haven't looked great in their games this season with their 55-56 record overall which has them right in the middle of the NL East. They haven't looked great in their own ballpark this year with their 27-30 home record. Meanwhile, the Astros have looked great in their games this season with their 63-50 record overall which has them right at the top of the AL West. They have been a good road team too with their 28-26 road record this season. The Astros haven't looked good lately though as they are 3-7 in their last 10 games while the Marlins are 7-3 in their last 10 and have been red hot. Their offense has also been putting up a lot of runs lately and they are going to have the better pitching matchup in this one. The Marlins are going with Junk in this one and he has looked good this season. He is 5-2 with a 3.86 ERA and the team has been having success with him. He is coming off a bad start in which he gave up 6 earned runs, but that hasn't been a common theme for him this year so he will be looking to bounce back with a better start. The team has also won 2 games in a row with him starting anyway. The Astros are going with Arrighetti in this one and he hasn't made many starts this season due to injury. He is 1-1 with a 5.59 ERA and hasn't been great in his few starts. He is coming off a bad start in which he gave up 5 earned runs and the team lost that game too. He is going to need some time to get back in a groove and he hasn't pitched since early in the season either so the Marlins have a great opportunity to take advantage of him in this game now that their offense has been hot lately. The best way to place a bet here is on the Marlins to win this game. 

Astros Marlins Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Wednesday, August 6, 2025 (4:40 pm ET start time) is Marlins 6 Astros 5.

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Houston Astros: 248-200 (-9.1 units) on the moneyline in all games. 100-105 (-30.8 units) on the moneyline when the money line is -100 to -150. 44-37 (-3.9 units) on the moneyline vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse. 23-15 UNDER against NL East opponents.

Miami Marlins: 201-235 (+12.6 units) on the moneyline in all games. 62-61 (+18 units) on the moneyline in an inter-league game. 155-158 (+35.4 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 12-4 UNDER when the money line is -100 to -150.

Houston Astros:  B. Walter (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. L. McCullers Jr. (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Finger. I. Paredes (3B) Ten Day IL - Hamstring. B. Rodgers (2B) Sixty Day IL - Oblique. J. Meyers (CF) Ten Day IL - Calf. Z. Dezenzo (RF) Sixty Day IL - Hand. Y. Alvarez (LF) Sixty Day IL - Hand. S. Dubin (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Forearm. P. Leon (RF) Sixty Day IL - Knee. S. Arrighetti (SP) Sixty Day IL - Thumb. R. Blanco (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. H. Wesneski (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. L. Garcia (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. C. Javier (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. France (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder.

Miami Marlins:  J. Tinoco (RP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. C. Norby (3B) Ten Day IL - Wrist. M. Meyer (SP) Sixty Day IL - Hip. R. Weathers (SP) Sixty Day IL - Lat. G. Conine (LF) Sixty Day IL - Arm. A. Nardi (RP) Sixty Day IL - Back. B. Garrett (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

“He’s grateful to be here. He’s around winning players, and it changes how you prepare yourself. He’s asking a ton of questions. He wants to know how we have done it here for so many years. You want to be a part of a winning culture, and we have been able to do that for a long time. He’s excited about that.” - Joe Espada after his team’s win against the Marlins in their game on Monday.

“What a month, just reading through, you get caught in the day to day. Kyle does so much for us within series, within games, to help us win. You knew it was good, but you lose track a little bit about how impressive it was.” - Clayton McCullough after his team’s loss against the Astros in their game on Monday.

Jeremy Peña (R) SS

Jesús Sánchez (L) LF

Jose Altuve (R) 2B

Carlos Correa (R) 3B

Christian Walker (R) 1B

Victor Caratini (S) DH

Yainer Diaz (R) C

Taylor Trammell (L) CF

Cam Smith (R) RF

Xavier Edwards (S) 2B

Kyle Stowers (L) LF

Agustín Ramírez (R) C

Liam Hicks (L) DH

Otto Lopez (R) SS

Jakob Marsee (L) CF

Troy Johnston (L) 1B

Dane Myers (R) RF

Graham Pauley (L) 3B

Batting Average:  Jeremy Peña (.324)

Hits:  Jose Altuve (117)

Home Runs:  Isaac Paredes (19)

RBI:  Christian Walker (59)

Stolen Bases:  Jeremy Peña (15)

Wins:  Framber Valdez (11)

Saves:  Josh Hader (28)

ERA:  Shawn Dubin (1.33)

Batting Average:  Rob Brantly (.429)

Hits:  Xavier Edwards (113)

Home Runs:  Kyle Stowers (25)

RBI:  Kyle Stowers (71)

Stolen Bases:  Xavier Edwards (17)

Wins:  Ronny Henriquez (6)

Saves:  Calvin Faucher (11)

ERA:  Freddy Tarnok (0.00)

Managers:

Houston Astros: Joe Espada (2nd season)

Miami Marlins: Clayton McCullough (1st season)