Houston Astros vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/23/2025

Game Time: 3:40 pm ET, Wednesday, July 23, 2025

Venue:  Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ

Where to Watch:  MLBN 

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Astros +104, Diamondbacks -126; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Astros +105, Diamondbacks -125; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Astros +105, Diamondbacks -125; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Houston Astros:  58-42 (1st place, AL West)

Arizona Diamondbacks:  50-51 (4th place, NL West)

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Houston Astros:  3-7 last 10

Arizona Diamondbacks:  5-5 last 10

The Astros are entering this series off a win and lost their 3-game series against the Seattle Mariners 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 58-42 record overall and have a road record of 25-23. This is the series finale of a 3-game series with the Diamondbacks on Wednesday with the 2nd game still to be played on Tuesday. The Astros won the series opener on Monday. Their offense ranks 10th in the MLB with a .733 OPS. Framber Valdez is their starting pitcher on Tuesday while Brandon Walter is making his start in this game on Wednesday. He is 1-3 with a 3.66 ERA this season. His team lost their last 3 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 ER, 1 HR, and 1 BB with 7 SO on 3 hits through 6 IP against the Seattle Mariners.

The Diamondbacks are entering this series off a win and completed the sweep in their 3-game series against the St Louis Cardinals 3-0 in their last series. They enter this game with a 50-51 record overall and have a home record of 26-26. This is the 3rd game of a 3-game series with the Astros on Wednesday with the 2nd game of this series still to be played on Tuesday. The Diamondbacks lost the 1st game of this series on Monday. Their offense ranks 2nd in the MLB with a .776 OPS. Eduardo Rodríguez is their starting pitcher on Tuesday while Brandon Pfaadt is making his start in this game on Wednesday. He is 10-6 with a 4.82 ERA this season. His team won their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 0 earned runs, 0 homers, and 0 walks with 6 strikeouts on 4 hits through 7 innings pitched against the St Louis Cardinals.

The current betting odds have the Diamondbacks listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Astros have looked really good in their games this season with their 58-42 record overall which has them right at the top of the AL West. They have been a good road team too with their 25-23 road record this season. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks haven't looked great in their games this season with their 50-51 record overall which has them right near the bottom of the NL West. They haven't looked great in their own ballpark with their 26-26 home record this season. The Diamondbacks already lost the 1st game of this series, but they did sweep the Cardinals coming out of the All-Star break and they are catching the Astros in the middle of a slump, going 3-7 in their last 10 games. The Diamondbacks are going with Pfaadt in this one and he has been up and down this year. He is 10-6 with a 4.82 ERA and has been giving up quite a few runs all season, but lately he has looked a lot better. He is coming off a great start in which he gave up no runs and the team has won 2 games in a row now with him starting too. He has also looked a lot better in his home starts this year and the Diamondbacks do have one of the best offenses in the MLB to help him out. The Astros are going with Walter in this one and he hasn't looked bad this season. He is 1-3 with a 3.66 ERA and only gave up 1 earned run in his last start, but the team has still lost 3 games in a row with him starting and they just haven't had a ton of success with him. Pfaadt leads the Diamondbacks in wins this season too so the team is going to bring their best effort for him as they usually do. The best way to place a bet here is on the Diamondbacks to win this game.  

Astros Diamondbacks Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Wednesday, July 23, 2025 (3:40 pm ET start time) is Diamondbacks 5 Astros 3.

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Houston Astros: 29-17 (+9.8 units) on the moneyline against NL West opponents. 124-90 (+28.2 units) on the moneyline in road games. 177-142 (+5.5 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 26-17 UNDER against NL West opponents.

Arizona Diamondbacks: 116-106 (-13.5 units) on the moneyline in home games. 51-55 (-10.8 units) on the moneyline vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse. 49-58 (-5.7 units) on the moneyline when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%). 29-19 UNDER vs. a starting pitcher who gives up 1 or more HR's/start.

Houston Astros:  I. Paredes (3B) Ten Day IL - Hamstring. B. Rodgers (2B) Sixty Day IL - Oblique. J. Meyers (CF) Ten Day IL - Calf. Z. Dezenzo (RF) Sixty Day IL - Hand. L. Guillorme (3B) Ten Day IL - Hamstring. Y. Alvarez (LF) Sixty Day IL - Hand. J. Pena (SS) Ten Day IL - Rib. S. Dubin (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Forearm. P. Leon (RF) Sixty Day IL - Knee. J. Melton (LF) Ten Day IL - Ankle. S. Arrighetti (SP) Sixty Day IL - Thumb. R. Blanco (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. H. Wesneski (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. L. Garcia (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. C. Javier (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. France (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder.

Arizona Diamondbacks:  G. Moreno (C) Sixty Day IL - Hand. J. Beeks (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Back. S. Miller (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Forearm. P. Smith (1B) Ten Day IL - Oblique. T. Henry (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. R. Thompson (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Scapular Strain. I. Vargas (2B) Ten Day IL - Foot. C. Montes De Oca (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Martinez (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. C. Mena (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. C. Burnes (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. A. Puk (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Montgomery (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. B. Walston (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

“He’s a strong kid and it’s just getting direction, just getting the pitches he knows he can drive, stay away from chasing, don’t let the pitchers control the at-bats. Let the pitches come to you, and if you do that, you’re going to find yourself in a position to get some good swings out here.” - Joe Espada on Brice Matthews after his team’s win against the Diamondbacks in their game on Monday.

“We got clipped by one guy that hit two home runs and had five RBIs. And we’ve got to be able to gameplan and figure out that piece of the puzzle. [Matthews is] a young upstart hitter in this league and we picked up some information on him, we did our homework on him, but it just seemed like that was the one situation and the one guy that beat us today.” - Torey Lovullo after his team’s loss against the Astros in their game on Monday.

Cam Smith (R) RF

Jose Altuve (R) DH

Victor Caratini (S) C

Christian Walker (R) 1B

Taylor Trammell (L) LF

Mauricio Dubón (R) 3B

Chas McCormick (R) CF

Brice Matthews (R) 2B

Zack Short (R) SS

Ketel Marte (S) DH

Corbin Carroll (L) CF

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R) LF

Eugenio Suárez (R) 3B

Josh Naylor (L) 1B

Randal Grichuk (R) RF

James McCann (R) C

Blaze Alexander (R) 2B

Geraldo Perdomo (S) SS

Batting Average:  Jeremy Peña (.322)

Hits:  Jose Altuve (104)

Home Runs:  Isaac Paredes (19)

RBI:  Jose Altuve (53)

Stolen Bases:  Jeremy Peña (15)

Wins:  Framber Valdez (10)

Saves:  Josh Hader (26)

ERA:  Shawn Dubin (1.33)

Batting Average:  Adrian Del Castillo (.417)

Hits:  Josh Naylor (100)

Home Runs:  Eugenio Suárez (36)

RBI:  Eugenio Suárez (86)

Stolen Bases:  Geraldo Perdomo (15)

Wins:  Brandon Pfaadt (10)

Saves:  Shelby Miller (10)

ERA:  Christian Montes De Oca (0.00)

Managers:

Houston Astros: Joe Espada (2nd season)

Arizona Diamondbacks: Torey Lovullo (9th season)