by Amedeus Mastrangelo
Thursday, Oct 28, 2021
Game Time: 6:00 pm ET, Saturday, October 30, 2021
Venue: Allen E. Paulson Stadium, Statesboro, GA
Where to Watch: ESPN+
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: GA State -6.5, GA Southern +6.5; Over/Under: 56 points
Bet365: Point Spread: GA State -6.5, GA Southern +6.5; Over/Under: 55.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: GA State -6.5, GA Southern +6.5; Over/Under: 56 points
Season Record
Georgia State Panthers: 3-4 (4th place, Sun Belt Group A)
Georgia Southern Eagles: 2-5 (5th place, Sun Belt Group A)
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Georgia State Panthers vs Georgia Southern Eagles Preview and Analysis
Recent Form
Georgia State Panthers: won at home on Oct. 23 against the Texas State Bobcats 28-16.
Georgia Southern Eagles: lost on the road on Oct. 14 against the South Alabama Jaguars 41-14.
Georgia State Panthers Analysis
Georgia State is coming into this FBS game with a 3-4 record overall and they are 1-2 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. This will be their 4th conference matchup of the year and they are off to a good start with a 2-1 record in their conference games this season. Their 1 loss came against the Appalachian State Mountaineers while their 2 wins came against the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks and against Texas State in their last game. They are on a 2 game winning streak coming into this one. They won their last game in a game that was close in the first half going into halftime with a 1 point lead but then they pulled away in the second half securing the win for themselves. Darren Grainger played alright in that game as he completed 16/25 passes for 200 yards and 2 touchdowns. Tucker Gregg had a very nice day on the ground as he led the team in rushing with 115 yards on 21 carries while Grainger was right behind him with 106 rushing yards on 14 carries. It was Jamyest Williams who ran in both TDs on the ground in that game. Terrance Dixon led the receivers with 65 yards and 1 touchdown on 5 receptions while Aubry Payne had 39 yards on 3 catches and 1 TD. Quavian White led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles. Blake Carroll, Jontrey Hunter, and Jamil Muhammad all had 1 sack each in that game while Jaylon Jones came away with the only interception for them. They have scored 170 points in their 7 games this season averaging 24.3 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 227 points against them allowing 32.4 PPG. Their offense is averaging 388.9 YPG while their defense is allowing 413.9 YPG.
Georgia Southern Eagles Analysis
Georgia Southern is coming into this college football game with a 2-5 record overall and they are 2-1 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. This will be the 5th conference matchup on their schedule this year and they are in a very bad position with a 1-3 record in their conference games this season. Their 1 win came against the Arkansas State Red Wolves while their 3 losses came against the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns, the Troy Trojans, and against South Alabama in their last game. They were dominated in that game against South Alabama going down early and trailing the entire game. They are on a 2 game losing streak coming into this game. Justin Tomlin did not play well at all in their last game as he completed 5/13 passes for 49 yards and 1 interception while Cam Ransom was just as bad completing 2/12 passes for 63 yards. Logan Wright led the team in rushing in that game with 60 yards on 14 carries but they did not have much of a run game in that one. Amare Jones led the receivers with 90 yards on 4 receptions. Justin Birdsong led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 3 assisted ones. Justin Ellis and Parker Devine both had 1 sack each in that one while no one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that game. They have scored 163 points in their 7 games this season averaging 23.3 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 237 points against them allowing 33.9 PPG. Their offense is averaging 359.6 YPG while their defense is allowing 494.4 YPG.
Georgia State vs Georgia Southern Prediction
Georgia State is coming into this contest as a 5.5 point favorite with the current betting odds according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Georgia Southern might just be the worst team in the Sun Belt with the way they are playing. Georgia State is actually doing well in their conference games so far. They have 2 good wins and 1 loss but that loss was against App State who just knocked off the ranked Coastal Carolina. Georgia State has more weapons on their offense than Georgia Southern and their defense is just better. The best bet to place in this game is on Georgia State to cover the spread here as they should win this game in a blowout.
Georgia State Georgia Southern Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, October 30, 2021 (6:00 pm ET start time) is GA State 34 GA Southern 21.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Georgia State Panthers: 48-51 O/U in all games. 14-20 O/U when the total is between 49.5 and 56. 22-26 O/U in road games. 6-12 O/U in a road game where the total is between 49.5 and 56.
Georgia Southern Eagles: 54-45 ATS in all games. 27-20 ATS as an underdog. 9-5 ATS as a home underdog. 26-17 ATS in home games. 21-17 ATS after playing 2 straight conference games.
Key Injuries
Georgia State Panthers: C. McCoy (WR) Ques Sat - Hamstring injury.
Georgia Southern Eagles: D. Carter Jr. (SB) Ques Sat - Undisclosed injury. K. Hood (SB) Ques Sat - Arm injury. D. Canteen (CB) out for season - Pectoral injury. T. Bradley-Glenn (LB) out for season - Bicep injury.
Notable Quotes
“I understand that their fan base probably doesn’t consider it a rivalry for whatever reason, and I’m OK with that. But I can tell you one thing – we do. We’re fired up to go to Statesboro.” - Shawn Elliott on their upcoming match against GA Southern this week.
“The first team that might come to mind is App State; that’s a rivalry game between us. But the whole Georgia Southern-Georgia State … who’s the real Georgia team … that’s something the fans probably came up with. But we’re going to make things right and stop all that rivalry nonsense.” - Gerald Green on the GA Southern players viewpoints of this “rivalry” game.
Starting Lineups
Georgia State Panthers
WR McCoy, Cornelius
WR Pinckney, Sam
WR Terrance Dixon
TE Carter, Roger
QB Grainger, Darren
RB Gregg, Tucker
Georgia Southern Eagles
WR Mcafee, Jjay
WR Smith, Emil
WR Hood, Khaleb
TE Johnson, Beau
QB Tomlin, Justin
RB Wright, Logan
Statistical Leaders
Georgia State Panthers
Passing: D. Grainger (783)
Rushing: T. Gregg (465)
Receiving: J. Thrash (294)
Touchdowns: J. Williams (4)
Georgia Southern Eagles
Passing: J. Tomlin (507)
Rushing: L. Wright (536)
Receiving: K. Hood (175)
Touchdowns: L. Wright (5)
Coaches:
Georgia State Panthers: Shawn Elliott (5th season)
Georgia Southern Eagles: Chad Lunsford (5th season)
Amedeus Mastrangelo
About the Author:
Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.
