by Rod Pearson
Thursday, Oct 10, 2024
Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Saturday, October 12, 2024
Venue: Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, TN
Where to Watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Florida +15.5, Tennessee -15.5; Over/Under: 55.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Florida +15.5, Tennessee -15.5; Over/Under: 55.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Florida +15.5, Tennessee -15.5; Over/Under: 55.5 points
Season Record
Florida Gators: 3-2 (1-1) (12th place, SEC)
Tennessee Volunteers: 4-1 (1-1) (7th place, SEC)
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Florida Gators: won their last game at home against the Central Florida Knights 24-13.
Tennessee Volunteers: lost their last game on the road against the Arkansas Razorbacks 19-14.
Florida Gators vs Tennessee Volunteers Preview and Analysis
Florida is entering this game with a 3-2 record overall and they have a 1-1 record in their conference games too. They are 2-2 in their home games, 1-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against UCF 24-13. Graham Mertz was the starting QB and he completed 19/23 passes for 179 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Montrell Johnson Jr. led the team in rushing yards with 54 and 1 TD. Chimere Dike led the receivers with 88 receiving yards on 4 receptions. Jordan Castell led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while George Gumbs Jr. led the defense in sacks with 1.5. Bryce Thornton came away with the only interception for them in that one.
Tennessee is entering this game with a 4-1 record overall and they have a 1-1 record in their conference games too. They are 2-0 in their home games, 1-1 in their road games, and they are also 1-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against Arkansas 19-14. Nico Iamaleava was the starting QB and he completed 16/28 passes for 156 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Dylan Sampson led the team in rushing yards with 140 and 2 TDs. Dont'e Thornton Jr. led the receivers with 42 receiving yards on 1 reception. Will Brooks led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 4 assisted tackles while James Pearce Jr. led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
Florida vs Tennessee Prediction
The current betting odds have Tennessee listed as a 15.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Tennessee has looked great in their games this season with their 4-1 record overall, but they are 1-1 in their conference games. They are coming off their first loss of the season last week against Arkansas, but they are 2-0 in their home games this year and will be looking to bounce back with a better game. Meanwhile, Florida hasn't looked great in their games this season with their 3-2 record overall and their 1-1 conference record. They are coming off a nice win against UCF in their last one, but UCF has been a really up and down team this season. Florida has had a lot of problems this season and they have struggled a lot on defense against the stronger teams they have faced. Tennessee still has a really good offense and after being held to just 14 points in their loss to Arkansas last week, they will be looking to bounce back with an offensive explosion. Their defense has also been really good as they haven't been giving up many points all season, only giving up 19 in their loss too, so Florida isn't going to have an easy time moving the ball here with the way their offense has looked. Florida won't be able to stop this Tennessee offense as they will continue to pull away throughout the game, and Florida doesn't have the offense to come back on this Tennessee defense. The best way to place a bet here is on Tennessee to cover the spread in this game.
Florida Tennessee Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, October 12, 2024 (7:00 pm ET start time) is Tennessee 38 Florida 13.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Florida Gators: 5-8 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56. 3-7 ATS off a home win. 5-9 ATS after playing a game at home. 8-2 OVER in road lined games. 11-5 OVER as an underdog. 9-4 OVER when the total is between 49.5 and 56. 11-1 OVER vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game.
Tennessee Volunteers: 21-10 ATS in all lined games. 19-7 ATS as a favorite. 12-4 ATS in home lined games. 8-2 ATS after playing their last game on the road. 10-4 OVER as a home favorite. 15-6 1H OVER in games played on a grass field. 5-1 1H OVER after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses.
Key Injuries
Florida Gators: E. Wilson (WR) Out - Undisclosed. C. Rillos (TE) Out - Undisclosed. B. Slade (DB) Out - Undisclosed. B. Green (WR) Out - Undisclosed. A. Covington (DB) Out - Undisclosed. J. Lyons (DL) Out - Ankle. D. Moore (DB) Questionable - Undisclosed. T. Searcy (DE) Questionable - Undisclosed. A. Jean (WR) Questionable - Wrist. A. Turner (DB) Out - Shoulder. K. Zipperer (TE) Out - Knee. J. Jackson (DB) Out - Undisclosed. D. Moore (DB) Questionable - Shoulder. K. Jackson (WR) Out - Knee. J. Fraziars (WR) Out - Knee.
Tennessee Volunteers: K. Perry (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Seldon (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. M. Matthews (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. E. Okoye (DL) Out - Undisclosed. B. Staley (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Thomas (DB) Out - Knee.
Notable Quotes
“It’s evident that we took a step in the right direction on defense." - Billy Napier after his team’s win against UCF in their last game.
“When moments like this happen, the outside world’s going to have a narrative for you. We talk about it when it’s going good, and tonight it didn’t go good. You’ve got to look your teammates in the eye. Those are the opinions that matter. You’ve got to continue to pull the rope harder. We’ve got to continue to grow. Good teams get better throughout the course of the year. (We) still have a chance to be a really good football team.” - Josh Heupel after his team’s loss against Arkansas in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Florida Gators
WR Wilson III, Eugene
WR Badger, Elijhah
WR Dike, Chimere
TE Hansen, Hayden
TE Boardingham, Arlis
QB Mertz, Graham
RB Johnson Jr., Montrell
Tennessee Volunteers
WR McCoy, Bru
WR Brazzell II, Chris
WR White, Squirrel
TE Kitselman, Miles
QB Iamaleava, Nico
RB Sampson, Dylan
FB Harrison, Cole
Statistical Leaders
Florida Gators
Passing: D. Lagway (667)
Rushing: M. Johnson (288)
Receiving: E. Badger (346)
Touchdowns: M. Johnson (4)
Tennessee Volunteers
Passing: N. Iamaleava (1037)
Rushing: D. Sampson (589)
Receiving: D. Thornton (284)
Touchdowns: D. Sampson (12)
Coaches:
Florida Gators: Billy Napier (3rd season)
Tennessee Volunteers: Josh Heupel (4th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
