Game Time: 3:30 PM ET, Saturday, November 13th, 2021

Venue: Lane Stadium, Blacksburg, Virginia

Where to Watch:  ACC Network 

Kickoff Time: 3:35 PM ET

 

DraftKings Sportsbook:  Spread: Virginia -11.5; Over/Under: 51 points

Circa:  Spread: Virginia -11.5; Over/Under:  51 points

VegasInsider:  Spread: Virginia -11.5; Over/Under: 51 points

 

Duke: 0-5 conf, 3-6 overall (ACC)

Virginia Tech: 2-3 conf, 4-5 overall (ACC)

It has not been Duke’s year.  They have lost all 5 conference matchups they have played… and they will lose this one too.  However, does this underdog have any chance of covering the spread?... Virginia Tech is no world beater.  The Hokies just got beat by the Boston College Eagles 17-3 last weekend.  VT beat Georgia Tech but not by 11 ½ points… they beat the Tar Heels but not by 11 ½ points.  The question is of course is Duke bad enough to lose by that spread in ACC play against another losing team?...

The first part of the answer is Duke lost to Wake Forest 45-7 (38 points), Virginia Cavaliers 48-0, UNC 38-7 (31 points), and Pitt 54-29 (25 points).  So yeah they could lose to anyone by a simple ten points.

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Duke is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games.  This one should be no different.  The 3 quarterback set that Duke deploys to disguise the offense has been completely ineffective in the ACC.  

OFFENSIVE ANALYSIS

Believe it or not Duke has the 32nd ranked offense in the FBS.  They get 443.4 yards per game and have scored 27 touchdowns.  They are 46th in passing offense with 252.9 ypg and only 8 TDs.  They get receptions all over the field but just don’t win games.  They are the 40th ranked rushing offense with 190.6 yards per game.  It is literally a puzzle that they don’t score points and don’t win games?... Unless you look at their red zone offense and all of a sudden they drop to 121st in the FBS (In the bottom ten of 130 teams).  Duke simply can’t finish drives with a simple “punch it in” mentality.

VT is ranked 110th in total offense in the FBS.  They get 335.8 yards per game and have scored 21 TDs this season.  They are at a severe disadvantage to Duke’s numbers so we have to simply skip ahead and look at the defensive numbers.

DEFENSIVE ANALYSIS

Duke is ranked 127th on defense in the FBS.  They are among the bottom four teams out of 130.  They give up a nasty 491.8 yards per game and a whopping 40 touchdowns on the season.  This immediately explains the offensive stats.  They allow the other team to score on them almost at will which gives them the ball right back.  They give up 183.8 rushing yards per game and they are better at rushing defense than passing defense.

VT is ranked 61st in the FBS on defense.  They give up 376.4 yards per game and 25 TDs so far.  

Our prediction for Saturday, November 13th, is… Virginia Tech 24 - Duke 12

VT will have a home crowd and a better defense… and they will be throwing passes against a defense that hasn’t been able to stop anyone in the ACC.

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Duke is 4-10 ATS in Road Games over the last 3 seasons.

Duke is 1-6 ATS in November games the last 3 seasons.

VT is 7-14 ATS as a Favorite over the last 3 seasons. 

VT is 3-6 ATS this season.

VT is 1-4 ATS as a Favorite this season.

Uh-Oh… VT doesn’t look that tough against the spread at all.  Where VT did look tough is when they played #7 in the nation the Notre Dame Fighting Irish to a close loss 32-29.

Duke: QB Gunner Holmberg, RB Mataeo Durant, WR Jake Bobo, WR Eli Pancol, WR Jalon Calhoun, LT Graham Barton, LG Maurice McIntyre, OC Jack Wohlabaugh, RG Jacob Monk, RT John Gelotte, TE Jake Marwede

VT: QB Braxton Burmeister, RB Malachi Thomas, TE Drake Deluliis, WR Kaleb Smith, WR Tre Turner, WR Tayvion Robinson, LT Luke Tenuta, LG Lecitus Smith, OC Brock Hoffman, RG Kaden Moore, RT Silas Dzansi 

Duke: David Cutcliffe.  Old man Cutcliffe has been on the sideline at Duke since 2008.  He has had front row seats to some of the best college basketball games in the whole world… Duke vs North Carolina, Duke vs Villanova, … oh and to get it he just has to coach the football team.  Nice set-up.  His record is right about .500 121-123.  

VT: Justin Fuente. Justin has had his hand on the stick at Virginia Tech since 2016.  He currently makes $4.25 million dollars a year.  His Record at the school is 42-31.  He is 1-3 in Bowl games at VT.  He has lost the Belk Bowl, the Military Bowl, and the Camping World Bowl… but started it all off with a win at the Belk Bowl in 2016.  

Partly Cloudy, 44* Humidity 62%, Wind at 13 mph.