Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction, Preview and Odds - 05/18/2025

Game Time: 3:30 pm ET, Sunday, May 18, 2025

Venue:  Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK 

Where to Watch:  ABC

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Nuggets +7, Thunder -7; Over/Under:  212.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Nuggets +7.5, Thunder -7.5; Over/Under:  213 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Nuggets +7.5, Thunder -7.5; Over/Under:  212.5 points

Denver Nuggets:  50-32 (2nd place, Northwest Division)

Oklahoma City Thunder:  68-14 (1st place, Northwest Division)

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Denver Nuggets:  6-4 last 10

Oklahoma City Thunder:  7-3 last 10

The Nuggets are entering the playoffs with a 50-32 record overall this season and they were 24-17 in their road games where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the Oklahoma City Thunder. Nikola Jokić led the team in points in that game with 29 while Jamal Murray was next on the team with 25 points. Nikola Jokić led the team in assists in that game with 8 while Nikola Jokić led the team in rebounds with 14. They were 46.5% from the field, 37.5% from 3-point range, and 84.4% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 120.8 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 116.9 PPG against them. The Nuggets have an ATS record of 46-47-2 this season and their O/U record is 55-40.

The Thunder are entering the playoffs with a 68-14 record overall this season and they were 35-6 in their home games where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a loss against the Denver Nuggets. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the team in points in that game with 32 while Chet Holmgren was next on the team with 19 points. Jalen Williams led the team in assists in that game with 10 while Chet Holmgren led the team in rebounds with 11. They were 46.7% from the field, 27.5% from 3-point range, and 62.5% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 120.5 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 107.6 PPG against them. The Thunder have an ATS record of 56-33-4 this season and their O/U record is 49-42-2.

The current betting odds have the Thunder listed as a 7 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 7 of a 7 game series between the 1st seeded Thunder and the 4th seeded Nuggets from the Western Conference for the 2nd round of the NBA playoffs. This series is all tied up 3-3 after the Nuggets won game 6 at home. The Nuggets made it a 3-3 series with a 119-107 win over the Thunder in the 6th game of this series and that was a game that the Nuggets led for most of the night. The Nuggets came out really strong in the 2nd half of that game to take control of it and force game 7 in this series, but the Nuggets have also played a lot of games in the playoffs so far. They played 7 games in their last series against the LA Clippers and now they are in another 7 game series here. They do have 2 days off to rest for this game so that is going to be big for them, but playing so many more games is going to start weighing on them and they aren't a team that has a lot of depth either. The Thunder have a lot more depth to work with on their bench and they have been crushing teams at home in these playoffs. The Nuggets have been playing tight games with the Thunder lately, but the Thunder will bring their best effort to close out this series on their home court and the Nuggets just won't have the legs to keep up with this younger team. The best way to place a bet here is on the Thunder to cover the spread in this game. 

Nuggets Thunder Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Sunday, May 18, 2025 (3:30 pm ET start time) is Thunder 117 Nuggets 107.

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Denver Nuggets: 13-23 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games. 3-7 ATS when attempting to close out a playoff series. 7-14 ATS on the road versus teams who average 9 or more steals/game on the season. 16-6 OVER off a home win against a division rival. 26-17 OVER versus teams who average 9 or more steals/game on the season. 

Oklahoma City Thunder: 67-36 ATS as a home favorite. 39-22 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent. 57-34 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 13 turnovers/game or less. 16-7 OVER after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games. 15-7 OVER off an upset loss as a road favorite.

Denver Nuggets:  H. Tyson (PF) Day To Day - Ankle. D. Holmes II (PF) Out For Season - Achilles.

Oklahoma City Thunder:  N. Topic (PG) Out For Season - ACL.

“The guys in there looked like they were happier to have tomorrow off than they were about going to a Game 7.” - Dave Adelman after his team’s win against the OKC Thunder in game 6 of this series on Thursday.

“First of all, credit Denver — they threw a punch tonight as has happened in the series, both teams are exchanging blows. They got theirs in tonight, and both teams have done a great job of standing back up, including us, and we need to do that on Sunday.” - Mark Daigneault after his team’s loss against the Nuggets in game 6 of this series on Thursday.

PG Jamal Murray

SG Christian Braun

SF Michael Porter Jr.

PF Aaron Gordon

C Nikola Jokic

PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

SG Luguentz Dort

SF Jalen Williams

PF Chet Holmgren

C Isaiah Hartenstein

PPG: N. Jokić (29.6)

APG: N. Jokić (10.2)

Reb/G: N. Jokić (12.7)

PPG: S. Gilgeous-Alexander (32.7)

APG: S. Gilgeous-Alexander (6.4)

Reb/G: I. Hartenstein (10.7)

Coaches:

Denver Nuggets: David Adelman (Interim)

Oklahoma City Thunder: Mark Daigneault (5th season)