Cleveland Cavaliers vs Indiana Pacers Prediction, Preview and Odds - 05/11/2025

Game Time: 8:00 pm ET, Sunday, May 11, 2025

Venue:  Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN

Where to Watch:  TNT, MAX, truTV

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Cavaliers -4.5, Pacers +4.5; Over/Under:  230.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Cavaliers -5, Pacers +5; Over/Under:  231 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Cavaliers -4.5, Pacers +4.5; Over/Under:  230.5 points

Cleveland Cavaliers:  64-18 (1st place, Central Division)

Indiana Pacers:  50-32 (2nd place, Central Division)

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Cleveland Cavaliers:  6-4 last 10

Indiana Pacers:  7-3 last 10

The Cavaliers are entering the playoffs with a 64-18 record overall this season and they were 30-11 in their road games where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the Indiana Pacers. Donovan Mitchell led the team in points in that game with 43 while Max Strus was next on the team with 20 points. Max Strus led the team in assists in that game with 7 while Evan Mobley led the team in rebounds with 13. They were 42% from the field, 29.8% from 3-point range, and 75.7% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 121.9 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 112.4 PPG against them. The Cavaliers have an ATS record of 52-36-1 this season and their O/U record is 56-33.

The Pacers are entering the playoffs with a 50-32 record overall this season and they were 29-11 in their home games where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a loss against the Cleveland Cavaliers. Bennedict Mathurin led the team in points in that game with 23 while Pascal Siakam was next on the team with 18 points. T. J. McConnell led the team in assists in that game with 7 while Aaron Nesmith led the team in rebounds with 7. They were 43.8% from the field, 30% from 3-point range, and 73.5% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 117.4 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 115.1 PPG against them. The Pacers have an ATS record of 41-46-3 this season and their O/U record is 48-40-2.

The current betting odds have the Cavaliers listed as a 4.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 4 of a 7 game series between the 1st seeded Cavaliers and the 4th seeded Pacers from the Eastern Conference for the 2nd round of the NBA playoffs. The Pacers are leading this series 2-1 after the Cavaliers won game 2 on the road. The Cavaliers made it a 2-1 series lead for the Pacers with a 126-104 win over the Pacers in the 3rd game of this series and they looked a lot better in that game. They didn't look bad in their 2 games to start the series, but they did lose both games at home and even blew a big lead in one of those. They were missing some key players from their lineup though, and they looked a lot better in game 3 with those players back in the lineup. The Cavaliers went into Indiana with their backs against the wall, but they have guaranteed themselves another game back in Cleveland with that win now. They finally looked like the team that won 68 games during the regular season and now that they have some momentum on their side from that win, they aren't going to slow down here as they are still looking to even up the series. The Pacers have looked a lot better on their home court this season, but they just couldn't keep up in that game against a healthy Cavaliers lineup, and this game will be very similar as the Cavaliers need to bring their best effort again. The Cavaliers have the talent to repeat what they did on the road in game 2 and now that they have a foot in this series, they will make sure they go back to Cleveland with the series tied. The best way to place a bet here is on the Cavaliers to cover the spread in this game. 

Cavaliers Pacers Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Sunday, May 11, 2025 (8:00 pm ET start time) is Cavaliers 120 Pacers 109.

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Cleveland Cavaliers: 28-15 ATS in road games. 13-6 ATS after a blowout win by 20 points or more. 27-13 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record. 15-6 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 116+ points/game. 28-11 OVER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. 29-12 OVER when playing against a team with a winning record.

Indiana Pacers: 1-4 ATS at home as an underdog  of 3.5 to 9.5 points. 1-4 ATS at home when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%). 18-25 1H ATS after playing a home game. 14-7 OVER as an underdog  of 3.5 to 9.5 points. 9-3 OVER when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%). 

Cleveland Cavaliers:  None.

Indiana Pacers:  I. Jackson (C) Out For Season - Calf.

“The first one was a selfish shot, but he needed to be selfish there — you know what I'm saying. He just felt like ‘I need it, I need to score this one even if it's not the perfect shot.' And that's kind of feel of the moment." - Kenny Atkinson after his team’s win against the Pacers in game 3 of this series on Friday.

“This was a very poor effort at the beginning of the game, through so many parts of the game. Clearly, I didn’t have these guys ready for this. Ty had a rough game. I have to do more to get him in better positions to have better shots.” - Rick Carlisle after his team’s loss against the Cavaliers in game 3 of this series on Friday.

PG Darius Garland

SG Donovan Mitchell

SF Max Strus

PF Evan Mobley

C Jarrett Allen

PG Tyrese Haliburton

SG Andrew Nembhard

SF Aaron Nesmith

PF Pascal Siakam

C Myles Turner

PPG: D. Mitchell (24)

APG: D. Garland (6.7)

Reb/G: J. Allen (9.7)

PPG: P. Siakam (20.2)

APG: T. Haliburton (9.2)

Reb/G: P. Siakam (6.9)

Coaches:

Cleveland Cavaliers: Kenny Atkinson (1st season)

Indiana Pacers: Rick Carlisle (4th season)