Chicago Cubs vs New York Yankees Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/11/2025

Game Time: 7:05 pm ET, Friday, July 11, 2025

Venue:  Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY

Where to Watch:  MARQ, YES

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Cubs +152, Yankees -187; Over/Under:  9 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Cubs +150, Yankees -185; Over/Under:  9 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Cubs +150, Yankees -185; Over/Under:  9 runs

Chicago Cubs:  54-38 (1st place, NL Central)

New York Yankees:  51-41 (2nd place, AL East)

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Chicago Cubs:  6-4 last 10

New York Yankees:  4-6 last 10

The Cubs won their 3-game series against the St Louis Cardinals 2-1. They enter this game with a 54-38 record overall and have a road record of 24-22. This is the series opener of a 3-game series with the Yankees on Friday with the series finale of their series against the Minnesota Twins still to be played on Thursday. The Cubs lost the series opener of that series on Tuesday and the 2nd game on Wednesday. Their offense ranks 3rd in the MLB with a .775 OPS. Colin Rea is their starting pitcher on Thursday while Chris Flexen is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 5-0 with a 0.83 ERA this season. His team lost 5 of their last 6 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 ER, 1 HR, and 0 BB with 2 SO on 4 hits through 3.2 IP against the St Louis Cardinals.

The Yankees lost their 3-game series against the New York Mets 2-1. They enter this game with a 51-41 record overall and have a home record of 28-17. This is the 1st game of a 3-game series with the Cubs on Friday with the 3rd game of their series against the Seattle Mariners still to be played on Thursday. The Yankees won the series opener of that series on Tuesday and the 2nd game on Wednesday. Their offense ranks 1st in the MLB with a .795 OPS. Marcus Stroman is their starting pitcher on Thursday while Carlos Rodón is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 9-6 with a 3.30 ERA this season. His team lost their last 3 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 6 earned runs, 2 homers, and 3 walks with 4 strikeouts on 5 hits through 5 innings pitched against the New York Mets.

The current betting odds have the Yankees listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Yankees have looked really good in their games this season with their 51-41 record overall which has them right near the top of the AL East. They have also looked great in their own ballpark this year with their 28-17 home record. Meanwhile, the Cubs have looked great in their games this season with their 54-38 record overall which has them right at the top of the NL Central with one of the best records in the entire MLB. They have been a good road team too with their 24-22 road record this season. They haven't been a great road team though and even though they have been the hotter team lately, the Yankees are starting to pull themselves out of a slump and get hot now. The Yankees are also going to have one of their best starters going in this one. Rodon is on the mound for the Yankees and he is 9-6 with a 3.30 ERA. He did give up 6 earned runs in his last start, but that hasn't been a common theme for him this year so he will be looking to bounce back with a better performance. The team has lost 3 games in a row now with him starting too, but they do have the best offenses in the MLB at the moment. The Cubs aren't going to have their best option on the mound in this one either, and they have been starting to cool off lately too so the Yankees can take advantage of that. The best way to place a bet here is on the Yankees to win this game. 

Cubs Yankees Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Friday, July 11, 2025 (7:05 pm ET start time) is Yankees 6 Cubs 3.

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Chicago Cubs: 17-13 (+5.8 units) on the moneyline against AL East opponents. 221-195 (+13.6 units) on the moneyline in all games. 67-49 (+17.2 units) on the moneyline in an inter-league game. 24-13 OVER on the road when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%).

New York Yankees: 20-19 (-8.5 units) on the moneyline against NL Central opponents. 234-195 (-26.2 units) on the moneyline in all games. 118-96 (-26.2 units) on the moneyline in home games. 13-5 OVER at home against NL Central opponents.

Chicago Cubs:  P. Hodge (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. J. Taillon (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Calf. M. Amaya (C) Ten Day IL - Oblique. E. Morgan (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Assad (RP) Sixty Day IL - Oblique. J. Steele (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

New York Yankees:  M. Leiter Jr. (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Fibular. C. Schmidt (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Forearm. F. Cruz (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Oblique. R. Yarbrough (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Oblique. Y. De Los Santos (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. O. Cabrera (3B) Sixty Day IL - Ankle. J. Cousins (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. L. Gil (SP) Sixty Day IL - Back. G. Cole (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

“I do think it’s realistic. Yeah, absolutely. Just collectively, we’ve got to work hard to help Matt and to help Matt be the solution or just to be the guy we think he can be. That’s not going to stop. We’re going to keep doing that.” - Craig Counsell on rookie Matt Shaw this season. 

“He’s in a great spot. He earned this opportunity -- not just because there’s a bunch of guys down, but because he’s absolutely the guy that’s put up the numbers and done the work in the first few months. He’s got a big arm, and he continues to get better.” - Aaron Boone on Cam Schlittler after his team’s win against the Mariners in their game on Wednesday.

Ian Happ (S) DH

Kyle Tucker (L) RF

Seiya Suzuki (R) LF

Pete Crow-Armstrong (L) CF

Michael Busch (L) 1B

Dansby Swanson (R) SS

Nico Hoerner (R) 2B

Reese McGuire (L) C

Jon Berti (R) 3B

Jasson Domínguez (S) LF

Aaron Judge (R) RF

Cody Bellinger (L) CF

Giancarlo Stanton (R) DH

Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L) 2B

Paul Goldschmidt (R) 1B

Austin Wells (L) C

Anthony Volpe (R) SS

Oswald Peraza (R) 3B

Batting Average:  Michael Busch (.296)

Hits:  Kyle Tucker (97)

Home Runs:  Seiya Suzuki (25)

RBI:  Seiya Suzuki (77)

Stolen Bases:  Pete Crow-Armstrong (27)

Wins:  Matthew Boyd (9)

Saves:  Daniel Palencia (10)

ERA:  Michael Fulmer (0.00)

Batting Average:  Aaron Judge (.360)

Hits:  Aaron Judge (122)

Home Runs:  Aaron Judge (34)

RBI:  Aaron Judge (77)

Stolen Bases:  Jasson Domínguez (14)

Wins:  Max Fried (11)

Saves:  Devin Williams (13)

ERA:  Adam Ottavino (0.00)

Managers:

Chicago Cubs: Craig Counsell (2nd season)

New York Yankees: Aaron Boone (8th season)