Boston Red Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/23/2025

Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Wednesday, July 23, 2025

Venue:  Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA 

Where to Watch:  ESPN

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Red Sox +128, Phillies -156; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Red Sox +125, Phillies -150; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Red Sox +125, Phillies -150; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Boston Red Sox:  54-48 (3rd place, AL East)

Philadelphia Phillies:  57-43 (1st place, NL East)

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Boston Red Sox:  7-3 last 10

Philadelphia Phillies:  4-6 last 10

The Red Sox are entering this series off a win and lost their 3-game series against the Chicago Cubs 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 54-48 record overall and have a road record of 22-28. This is the series finale of a 3-game series with the Phillies on Wednesday with the 2nd game still to be played on Tuesday. The Red Sox lost the series opener on Monday. Their offense ranks 5th in the MLB with a .753 OPS. Richard Fitts is their starting pitcher on Tuesday while Lucas Giolito is making his start in this game on Wednesday. He is 6-2 with a 3.59 ERA this season. His team won 3 of their last 4 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 4 ER, 1 HR, and 2 BB with 6 SO on 5 hits through 5.1 IP against the Chicago Cubs.

The Phillies are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Los Angeles Angels 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 57-43 record overall and have a home record of 32-18. This is the 3rd game of a 3-game series with the Red Sox on Wednesday with the 2nd game of this series still to be played on Tuesday. The Phillies won the 1st game of this series on Monday. Their offense ranks 12th in the MLB with a .732 OPS. Cristopher Sánchez is their starting pitcher on Tuesday while Jesús Luzardo is making his start in this game on Wednesday. He is 8-5 with a 4.29 ERA this season. His team lost 3 of their last 4 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 4 earned runs, 2 homers, and 2 walks with 7 strikeouts on 7 hits through 4.2 innings pitched against the Los Angeles Angels.

The current betting odds have the Red Sox listed as an underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Phillies have looked great in their games this season with their 57-43 record overall which has them right at the top of the NL East. They have also looked great in their own ballpark this year with their 32-18 home record. Meanwhile, the Red Sox have looked good in their games this season with their 54-48 record overall which has them right in the middle of the AL East. They haven't been a good road team though with their 22-28 road record this season. As bad as the Red Sox have been on the road, they have been rolling lately as they are 7-3 in their last 10 games while the Phillies are only 4-6 in their last 10, and the Red Sox can take advantage of this pitching matchup. The Red Sox are going with Giolito in this one and he has looked a lot better lately. He has been good this year as he is 6-2 with a 3.59 ERA and he hasn't been giving up many runs lately either. He did give up 4 earned runs in his last start, but the team has still won 3 of their last 4 games with him starting and he will be looking to bounce back from that rare bad start. The Phillies are going with Luzardo in this one and he started the season great, but lately he hasn't looked good. He is 8-5 with a 4.29 ERA and he has been falling apart in his starts lately with a lot of runs given up. He is coming off another bad start in which he gave up 4 earned runs, and the team has been struggling with him too, now losing 3 games in a row with him on the mound. The Red Sox were red hot going into the All-Star break and have cooled off a bit coming out, but this is a good game for them to bounce back in. The best way to place a bet here is on the Red Sox to win this game. 

Red Sox Phillies Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Wednesday, July 23, 2025 (7:00 pm ET start time) is Red Sox 8 Phillies 5.

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Boston Red Sox: 212-213 (-17.7 units) on the moneyline in all games. 59-65 (-12.7 units) on the moneyline in an inter-league game. 54-58 (-7.8 units) on the moneyline against left-handed starters. 26-18 UNDER against NL East opponents.

Philadelphia Phillies: 26-16 (+8.3 units) on the moneyline against AL East opponents. 143-80 (+23.2 units) on the moneyline in home games. 203-121 (+16.3 units) on the moneyline as a favorite of -110 or higher. 43-29 UNDER vs. a team with a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.45 or better.

Boston Red Sox:  H. Dobbins (SP) Fifteen Day IL - ACL. N. Burdi (RP) Sixty Day IL - Knee. L. Hendriks (RP) Sixty Day IL - Hip. Z. Kelly (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Oblique. L. Guerrero (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. J. Slaten (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. J. Winckowski (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. T. Casas (1B) Sixty Day IL - Knee. K. Crawford (SP) Sixty Day IL - Knee. T. Houck (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Flexor. P. Sandoval (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

Philadelphia Phillies:  A. Bohm (3B) Ten Day IL - Ribcage. A. Nola (SP) Sixty Day IL - Ankle.

“Excited about what the future holds.” - Alex Cora after his team’s loss against the Phillies in their game on Monday.

“There’s two things, this year, that I’ve never seen before in 40 years. One is a walk-off inside-the-park home run, and a walk-off catcher’s interference.” - Rob Thomson after his team’s win against the Red Sox in their game on Monday.

Jarren Duran (L) LF

Alex Bregman (R) 3B

Roman Anthony (L) DH

Trevor Story (R) SS

Wilyer Abreu (L) RF

Ceddanne Rafaela (R) CF

Marcelo Mayer (L) 2B

Carlos Narváez (R) C

Abraham Toro (S) 1B

Trea Turner (R) SS

Kyle Schwarber (L) DH

Bryce Harper (L) 1B

Nick Castellanos (R) RF

J.T. Realmuto (R) C

Brandon Marsh (L) CF

Otto Kemp (R) 3B

Max Kepler (L) LF

Bryson Stott (L) 2B

Batting Average:  Romy Gonzalez (.307)

Hits:  Jarren Duran (105)

Home Runs:  Wilyer Abreu (20)

RBI:  Trevor Story (59)

Stolen Bases:  Trevor Story (17)

Wins:  Garrett Crochet (11)

Saves:  Aroldis Chapman (17)

ERA:  Nick Burdi (0.00)

Batting Average:  Trea Turner (.286)

Hits:  Trea Turner (115)

Home Runs:  Kyle Schwarber (32)

RBI:  Kyle Schwarber (74)

Stolen Bases:  Trea Turner (25)

Wins:  Zack Wheeler (9)

Saves:  Jordan Romano (8)

ERA:  Daniel Robert (1.50)

Managers:

Boston Red Sox: Álex Cora (5th season)

Philadelphia Phillies: Rob Thomson (4th season)