Boston Red Sox vs Minnesota Twins Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/29/2025

Game Time: 7:40 pm ET, Tuesday, July 29, 2025

Venue:  Target Field, Minneapolis, MN

Where to Watch:  NESN, TWINS.tv 

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Red Sox +100, Twins -120; Over/Under:  9 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Red Sox +100, Twins -120; Over/Under:  9 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Red Sox +100, Twins -120; Over/Under:  9 runs

Boston Red Sox:  57-50 (3rd place, AL East)

Minnesota Twins:  50-55 (4th place, AL Central)

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Boston Red Sox:  5-5 last 10

Minnesota Twins:  3-7 last 10

The Red Sox are entering this series off a win and won their 3-game series against the Los Angeles Dodgers 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 57-50 record overall and have a road record of 23-29. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Twins on Tuesday with the series opener still to be played on Monday. Their offense ranks 5th in the MLB with a .748 OPS. Richard Fitts is their starting pitcher on Monday while Lucas Giolito is making his start in this game on Tuesday. He is 6-2 with a 3.97 ERA this season. His team won 4 of their last 5 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 5 ER, 4 HR, and 1 BB with 2 SO on 6 hits through 4 IP against the Philadelphia Phillies.

The Twins are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Washington Nationals 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 50-55 record overall and have a home record of 29-22. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Red Sox on Tuesday with the 1st game of this series still to be played on Monday. Their offense ranks 17th in the MLB with a .711 OPS. Simeon Woods Richardson is their starting pitcher on Monday while Chris Paddack is making his start in this game on Tuesday. He is 3-9 with a 4.95 ERA this season. His team lost their last 3 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 earned run, 1 homer, and 0 walks with 8 strikeouts on 4 hits through 6 innings pitched against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The current betting odds have the Red Sox listed as a slight underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Red Sox have looked good in their games this season with their 57-50 record overall which has them right in the middle of the AL East and in the Wild Card race. They haven't been a great road team though with their 23-29 road record this season. Meanwhile, the Twins haven't looked good in their games this season with their 50-55 record overall which has them right near the bottom of the AL Central. They have looked better in their own ballpark though with their 29-22 home record this season. The Red Sox were red hot going into the All-Star break and have cooled off since then, but they are still 5-5 in their last 10 games while the Twins are 3-7 in their last 10 and continue to slump. The Red Sox are the much better offensive team here and they are going to have the better pitching matchup too. Giolito is on the mound for the Red Sox and he has looked good this season. He is 6-2 with a 3.97 ERA and hasn't been giving up many runs lately. He did give up 5 earned runs in his last start, but that hasn't been a common theme lately so he will be looking to bounce back with a better start and the team has still won 4 of their last 5 games with him starting. The Twins are going with Paddack in this one and he hasn't looked good this year. He is 3-9 with a 4.95 ERA and has been giving up quite a few runs. He is coming off a rare good start in which he gave up 1 earned run, but that hasn't been a common theme for him lately and the team has still lost 3 games in a row with him starting. The best way to place a bet here is on the Red Sox to win this game. 

Red Sox Twins Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Tuesday, July 29, 2025 (7:40 pm ET start time) is Red Sox 6 Twins 4.

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Boston Red Sox: 86-105 (+4.7 units) on the moneyline as an underdog of +100 or higher. 78-74 (+9.4 units) on the moneyline vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better. 105-109 (+3.8 units) on the moneyline in road games. 8-4 OVER on the road against AL Central opponents.

Minnesota Twins: 51-55 (-13.4 units) on the moneyline in all games. 37-33 (-8.3 units) on the moneyline as a favorite of -110 or higher. 32-42 (-13.1 units) on the moneyline vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better. 6-3 OVER at home against AL East opponents.

Boston Red Sox:  A. Chapman (RP) Day To Day - Back. M. Mayer (3B) Ten Day IL - Wrist. H. Dobbins (SP) Fifteen Day IL - ACL. N. Burdi (RP) Sixty Day IL - Knee. L. Hendriks (RP) Sixty Day IL - Hip. Z. Kelly (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Oblique. L. Guerrero (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. J. Slaten (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. J. Winckowski (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. T. Casas (1B) Sixty Day IL - Knee. K. Crawford (SP) Sixty Day IL - Knee. T. Houck (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Flexor. P. Sandoval (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

Minnesota Twins:  B. Buxton (CF) Day To Day - Side Soreness. A. Misiewicz (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. D. Festa (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. B. Ober (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Hip. P. Lopez (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. L. Keaschall (2B) Sixty Day IL - Forearm.

“The Dodgers are the reigning champs. The Phillies are an incredible team, and so are the Cubs. And to go through that stretch like that, and to be able to win this series here today, it’s big for this ballclub, and we’re looking forward to continuing it.” - Alex Bregman after their win against the LA Dodgers in their game on Sunday.

“Philosophically at any Deadline, whether you’re buy side, sell side or somewhere in between, never shut off avenues to talent, whatever that talent. If you’re saying we’re only going for this, only going for that, we only want pitching, we only want infielders, you’re shutting out a potential path for talent. We try to approach every conversation based on what we know about the potential opportunity to acquire talent. We’re agnostic to some degree.” - Derek Falvey on the upcoming trade deadline. 

Roman Anthony (L) LF

Alex Bregman (R) 3B

Jarren Duran (L) CF

Trevor Story (R) SS

Masataka Yoshida (L) DH

Carlos Narváez (R) C

Wilyer Abreu (L) RF

Ceddanne Rafaela (R) 2B

Abraham Toro (S) 1B

Trevor Larnach (L) DH

Willi Castro (S) LF

Carlos Correa (R) SS

Kody Clemens (L) 1B

Royce Lewis (R) 3B

Matt Wallner (L) RF

Brooks Lee (S) 2B

Harrison Bader (R) CF

Christian Vázquez (R) C

Batting Average:  Alex Bregman (.298)

Hits:  Jarren Duran (110)

Home Runs:  Wilyer Abreu (20)

RBI:  Trevor Story (61)

Stolen Bases:  Trevor Story (17)

Wins:  Garrett Crochet (12)

Saves:  Aroldis Chapman (18)

ERA:  Nick Burdi (0.00)

Batting Average:  Luke Keaschall (.368)

Hits:  Byron Buxton (92)

Home Runs:  Byron Buxton (23)

RBI:  Byron Buxton (59)

Stolen Bases:  Byron Buxton (17)

Wins:  Joe Ryan (10)

Saves:  Jhoan Duran (16)

ERA:  Danny Coulombe (1.16)

Managers:

Boston Red Sox: Álex Cora (5th season)

Minnesota Twins: Rocco Baldelli (7th season)