by Chuck Sommers
Thursday, Feb 02, 2023
Time: 9 p.m. ET
Venue: Viejas Arena, San Diego, CA
Where to watch: FS1
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: San Diego State -6.5
FanDuel: San Diego State -6.5
BetMGM: San Diego State -6.5
Caesars: San Diego State -6.5
Season record
Boise State: 18-5 (8-2 Mountain West)
No. 22 San Diego State: 17-5 (8-2 Mountain West)
February is here and the college basketball season is taking full shape. Conference races still to be determined, the top 25 completely in shambles for what seems like every week, and there's bound to be an upset what seems like every single week. But as the season continues to progress with what seems like exciting action every week, you know our champion handicappers continue to put the work in each and every week to not only make money for them, but to ensure you get money in your pocket. All you need to do is look at the last 30 days. Scott Rickenbach has reeled in a net profit of $14,000 with a 24-9-0 run on the college hardwood. Team Del Genio has killed it with a 13-1-0 run at +$11,900. Will Rogers (28-15-0) and Matt Fargo (40-27-0) have also seen five figures over the last 30 days with college basketball. Surely, you want to get on this winning as well. All you need to do is go to bigal.com, check out our Best Bets page and make sure you are following along on the action. March will be here before you know it! Take advantage of our best best plays and find out what our champion handicappers are doing at bigal.com!
Boise State - San Diego State preview, prediction and analysis
Recent form
Boise State: won 59-52 at Air Force
San Diego State: lost 75-66 at Nevada-Reno
We’re getting a showdown in the Mountain West between two of the best teams in the conference when the Boise State Broncos (atop the MWC) visit the San Diego State Aztecs, who may not be ranked No. 22 in the country after this game should they lose again.
We’re getting a showdown in the Mountain West between two of the best teams in the conference when the Boise State Broncos (atop the MWC) visit the San Diego State Aztecs, who may not be ranked No. 22 in the country after this game should they lose again.
The winner of this game takes the lead in the Mountain West with both teams sitting at 8-2 in conference play. The Broncos, who haven’t been ranked all year, are looking for their fourth straight win since losing 81-79 at New Mexico on Jan.20.
Boise State is coming off a 59-52 narrow victory over the Air Force Falcons on Tuesday after two convincing home wins over Fresno State and Colorado State. Max Rice scored a game-high 22 points, and Marcus Shaver Jr. scored 12 points and had five rebounds to help lead Boise State.
The Broncos haven’t gotten any respect all year despite winning eight of nine and doing so in convincing fashion. Against the spread, they’ve also been great. The Broncos have covered in six of the last eight despite going 1-2 in the last 3. They were favored by 12 against Fresno State in a 10-point win and 8-point favorites against Air Force. They were getting 2.5 in the loss to New Mexico.
For context, Boise State is getting 6.5 at most books here.
San Diego State is coming off a 75-66 loss to the Nevada-Reno Wolf Pack in their first week of being ranked in the top 25. So a loss here, despite being 6.5-point favorites, would already knock them out.
Matt Bradley led the way with 16 points for the Aztecs, who had a four-game winning streak end with the only two losses this year to New Mexico and Reno.
“You can’t let a team shoot 65% and expect to win,” San Diego State coach Brian Dutcher said. “But Baker hit some tough shots and we let Blackshear go downhill on us. … (Nevada has) a great rhythm about them.”
San Diego State had a four-game ATS streak end with the loss. The Aztecs were favored by 2.5, and yet will be favored by at least 6 points for the fourth time in the last five games. The Aztecs were just 1-3-1 ATS in the previous five.
Prediction
The underdog has covered in the last four meetings, and it just seems like this is the time for Boise State to get that respect they deserve. San Diego State hasn’t looked good enough in the past few games to garner the attention of the national voters. It should be Boise State, and they will prove such a thing. Boise State 79, San Diego State 73
Betting trends
Boise State is 18-4 ATS as an underdog the last 3 seasons.
Boise State is 24-13 ATS off an under the last 3 seasons.
Boise State is 25-13 ATS after allowing 60 points or less the last 3 seasons.
San Diego State is 8-11 ATS as a favorite this season.
San Diego State is 17-21 ATS as a home favorite the last 3 seasons.
Projected starting lineup
Boise State:
PG: Marcus Shaver Jr.
SG: Max Rice
SF: Naje Smith
PF: Chibuzo Agbo
C: Tyson Degenhart
San Diego State:
PG: Darrion Trammell
SG: LaMont Butler
SF: Matt Bradley
PF: Keshad Johnson
C: Nathan Mensah
Injury report
Boise State: Naje Smith (leg, questionable), Marcus Shaver Jr. (ankle, questionable)
San Diego State: None
Boise State: Naje Smith (leg, questionable), Marcus Shaver Jr. (ankle, questionable)
San Diego State: None
Statistical leaders
Boise State:
Points: Tyson Degenhart -- 14.4
Rebounds: Marcus Shaver Jr. -- 6.3
Assists: Marcus Shaver Jr. -- 4.2
San Diego State:
Points: Matt Bradley -- 13.2
Rebounds: Nathan Mensah -- 5.9
Assists: Darrion Trammell -- 3.6
Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert basketball picks today. And if you enjoyed this Boise State Broncos - San Diego State Aztecs prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily college basketball projections and previews.
Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
