Baylor Bears vs. TCU Horned Frogs: Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 2/11/2023

Time: 4 p.m. ET

Venue: Ed and Rae Schollmaier Arena, Fort Worth, TX

Where to watch: ESPN2

DraftKings: Baylor -1

FanDuel: Baylor -1.5

BetMGM: TCU -1.5

Caesars: Baylor -1

No. 14 Baylor: 18-6 (7-4 Big 12)

No. 17 TCU: 17-7 (6-5 Big 12)

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Baylor: won 82-72 vs. Oklahoma

TCU: lost 82-61 at No. 12 Kansas State

The complexion of the Big 12 conference has officially changed as we know it and it is about to get very hectic given the fact that one program has completely crapped the bed over the last couple of games and now has to return home and try to avenge itself against an instate rival.

 

The team we are talking about that is defecated across its bed sheets is the TCU Horned Frogs. The 17th ranked team in the country is trying to avoid a three-game losing streak on Saturday when they host the 14th ranked Baylor bears at home in Fort Worth. Now I'm not really sure what happened over the course of the last few games that has given us all this pause for TCU to suddenly become a mediocre basketball program, but I do expect that this is what would happen when you have almost half a conference ranked in the top 25 so you're not really in a bad position going forward.

 

And while for the most part I could understand that, TCU has not recovered since losing that overtime game against Mississippi State on January 28th. They did come back to beat West Virginia 76-72 three days later, which is now looking like a very impressive win given West Virginia's body of work over the last number of games, but then they go on the road to Oklahoma State and lose by 6 points and then follow that up with probably their most embarrassing loss of the season, 82-61, at Kansas State. Not that there is anything wrong losing to Kansas State but when you are trying to establish yourself as a top tier program in the Big 12, and you've lay an egg like that against a very good ranked opponent, you are really on the verge of just completely bottoming out.

 

Not that I think that will happen with TCU as we get closer to tournament time, but it is jarring when you look at this team knowing how good they are offensively at 77 points per game and giving up just 66 points per game, which it should make a lot of sense at how bad TCU's defense has been considering the exact number of points per game they've given up is 66.6 which means the devil has found itself in TCU and everyone is just losing their mind because knowing how Jesus is beloved there it is just a horrible time for that program. This is the analysis you come here for and this is the analysis that I give you.

 

Meanwhile for all the struggling that has been going on with Baylor as of late, they found a way to win a few good games over the last number of weeks but it's still not impressive enough to think that they can go on the road and beat TCU. Because the winds that Baylor has racked up over the last week was against the two last place teams in the conference in Texas Tech and Oklahoma. Against Texas Tech, Baylor did what it was supposed to do in winning by 27 points. That part is not to be debated. But Baylor comes back to only win by 10 against Oklahoma, one of the more bizarre teams in the conference this season. And the fact that they are even getting just 3.5 against Kansas shows me how lopsided the books are because Baylor should be mopping the floor with that team. Instead Baylor is only laying one point against TCU going into this game and I'm not entirely sure if that is confidence enough for me to want to take Baylor to win.

 

There has not come a point so far that Baylor has played a game to where I think they should be able to win comfortably as a favorite. This would be, on top with beating Kansas, their most impressive win of the season and it would silence a lot of doubters. I just don't think it happens because TCU is in dire need of a victory and they are coming back home after our rough road trip. Give me TCU. TCU 79, Baylor 75

Baylor is 9-11 ATS as a favorite this season.

Baylor is 6-5 ATS against conference teams this season.

TCU is 9-4 ATS at home this season.

TCU is 4-2 ATS after playing on the road this season.

PG: L.J. Cryer

SG: Adam Flagler

SF: Keyonte George

PF: Jalen Bridges

C: Flo Thamba

PG: Mike Miles Jr.

SG: Damion Baugh

SF: Chuck O’Bannon Jr.

PF: Emmanuel Miller

C: Eddie Lampkin Jr.