Baylor Bears vs. Kansas State Wildcats: Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 2/21/2023

Time: 7 p.m. ET

Venue: Bramlage Coliseum, Manhattan, KS

Where to watch: ESPN2

DraftKings: Baylor -2

FanDuel: Baylor -2.5

BetMGM: Baylor -2.5

Caesars: Baylor -2

No. 9 Baylor: 20-7 (9-5 Big 12)

No. 14 Kansas State: 20-7 (8-6 Big 12)

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The good vibes that the Baylor Bears had built to push them back into the top 10 came crashing down over the weekend in Lawrence where the top dogs in the Big 12 reminded them what is the business. Baylor had its four-game winning streak end emphatically on the road and will try to bounce back, again in the state of Kansas, when they visit the No. 12 Kansas State Wildcats at Bramlage Coliseum on Tuesday.

Baylor appeared to turn a corner with these last four wins, pushing themselves to No. 9 in the nation and seemingly looking like the next threat to challenge the likes of Kansas and Texas for the top spot in the conference. But Kansas reminded them that it’s still their land with the defending national champions winning 87-71 over Baylor on Saturday.

Adam Flagler led all scorers with 22 points on 9 of 17 shooting to go with seven assists, and leading scorer Keyonte George had 20 points with five made 3-pointers, but the Baylor defense had no answer for Kansas shooting 51 percent from the floor. More importantly, no one had an answer for Kansas star Jalen Wilson going for 21 points and 13 rebounds. Baylor took a 45-32 lead at halftime and seemingly had that carried momentum.

Kansas, meanwhile, scored 55 points in the second half and held Baylor to just 26.

“That's a good game for the Big 12,” Baylor coach Scott Drew said. “You saw what we were capable of in the first half and what Kansas is capable of in the second half.”

Kansas dominated that second half and the homecourt advantage was likely a part of it. Baylor doesn’t have the defense to keep teams in check, giving up 70 points per game, but also showed the offense can travel anywhere so long as it doesn’t choke in the second half. Not a bad loss for Baylor, but it didn’t help the mission. The Bears are a game back of Kansas and Texas for first place in the conference, with their opponent Tuesday a game behind them for third.

Kansas State is coming off a rough week of its own after losing to Texas Tech and Oklahoma, bouncing back with a 61-55 win against Iowa State on Saturday to jump the Cyclones in the conference standings. Much like a lot of teams, Kansas State just needed some form of home cooking after those two tough losses.

Markquis Nowell shot just 4 of 13, but had a game-high 20 points to go with six rebound and five assists, as Kansas State survived despite shooting just 37.5 percent from the floor. Keyontae Johnson had 15 points.

“I just wanted to win,” Nowell said. “I wanted to do anything possible to win today, and that was my mindset.”

The winner of this game will essentially take a hold of third place in the conference. Kansas State won the first meeting in Waco back on Jan. 7, 97-95 in overtime, and can take the season series tiebreaker with a win.

Kansas State has been very good at home during conference play, losing just once at home (Feb. 4 vs. Texas). They’ve shown they can hang with the top teams, but they need a big game, and better shooting effort against Baylor. Should be a fun one. Kansas State 78, Baylor 76

Baylor is 46-36 ATS as a favorite the last 3 seasons.

Baylor is 8-5 ATS after a conference game this season.

Kansas State is 25-21 ATS as an underdog the last 3 seasons.

Kansas State is 21-19 ATS after an under the last 3 seasons.

PG: L.J. Cryer

SG: Adam Flagler

SF: Keyonte George

PF: Jalen Bridges

C: Flo Thamba

PG: Markquis Nowell

SG: Desi Sills

SF: Cam Carter

PF: Keyontae Johnson

C: Nae'qwan Tomlin