by Chuck Sommers
Friday, Dec 02, 2022
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Venue: Sanford Pentagon, Sioux Falls, SD
Where to watch: Peacock
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Gonzaga -1.5
FanDuel: Gonzaga -1.5
BetMGM: NL
Caesars: Gonzaga -1.5
Season record
No. 6 Baylor: 5-2
No. 14 Gonzaga: 5-2
It’s been upsets galore in the world of college basketball, and if you thought the rankings were busted before, you haven’t seen anything yet. Nothing’s been certain to this point, and nothing might not be certain in who’s good or bad until much later down the line. Look no further than Gonzaga already falling down to No. 14 after two losses. No one ever really expects that. So what can we expect this weekend? Our champion handicappers no exactly how to make that happen. Jim Feist is 31-14-2 over the last month with a net of more than $15,000. How about Wayne Root? He’s off to a tremendous 23-11-0 run and has netted $11,000. You want in on this action too, right? Make sure to be following bigal.com for all the fun this college basketball season and take the advice of our champion handicappers!
Baylor - Gonzaga preview, prediction and analysis
Recent form
Baylor: lost 96-70 at Marquette
Gonzaga: won 88-84 vs. Xavier
Baylor analysis
This game is going to sink one of these two teams no matter who loses. But it might hinder the Baylor Bears more in a sense they haven’t looked good coming out of this season. How crazy is this basketball season? Look no further than Baylor’s schedule. Three cupcakes to open the year, then losing 86-79 to No. 16 Virginia, only to follow that with an 80-75 win against No. 8 UCLA.
And then the Bears come back only to lose 96-70 to the Marquette Golden Eagles in what was a dominant defensive display from the home team. Marquette made 58.3 percent of its shots, while holding Baylor to 48. Sure, Marquette still gave up a lot, but at the very least, made Baylor’s defense look pathetic.
Baylor got 19 points from L.J. Cryer. Between him and Adam Flagler, they made seven 3-pointers. The problem? Baylor made just nine in the loss. Depth, which killed Baylor in stints last year, is doing it again.
“I didn't see that coming,” Baylor coach Scott Drew said. “Credit the crowd. Credit them for building momentum. Credit Shaka for having them prepared and how hard they played. At the end of the day, we fed to the fire by turning it over and making some uncharacteristic mistakes.”
Of course it was Shaka Smart. Of course it was. Why wouldn’t it be?
But man, Baylor got punked and can somehow salvage the week with a neutral-site win over Gonzaga this weekend. And quite honestly, I’m not sure which way you lean. I can see Baylor pulling out a win here and make things really interesting. I can also see Gonzaga winning this one in dominant fashion because Baylor doesn’t know how to operate basic defensive concepts.
Gonzaga analysis
What in the world is going on with the Zags? We talk about teams that should be so much better than their record states, but how in the world do we get to the point where Gonzaga is one loss away from dropping to No. 20 in the country? Because it’s likely going to happen at this rate if they keep playing low to their competition.
To be fair, it’s not like Gonzaga has lost to cupcake teams. They lost to the now-No. 2 team in the country in the Texas Longhorns, then lost to a very good Purdue team by 18 points. There’s still the win over Michigan State and the win over Kentucky to hang their hat on, and that counts for a lot more in the moment.
Taking on this Baylor team is going to be a tough test to see where the Zags are at mentally, playing a neutral-site game in South Dakota. Gonzaga is coming off an 88-84 win over Xavier. The Zags survived a major upset bid from the Musketeers despite giving up 51.5 percent shooting from the floor. The biggest differences were Xavier making just 8 3-pointers as opposed to 13, and no one had an answer for Julian Strawther’s 23 points. All five starters had double figures with Gonzaga.
Gonzaga overcame a 7-turnover performance from Drew Timme to win this one.
“He was telling us ‘I’m struggling, carry me’ and we said ‘No we’re going to get you the ball in your spots’ and I thought he did a great job,” Strawther said.
Prediction
When in doubt, you take the team that’s proven it at both ends. That’s Gonzaga. I can’t trust Xavier with a 39.5-foot pole. Gonzaga by 10
Betting trends
Gonzaga is 85-55 ATS after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last six since 1997.
Gonzaga is 38-20 ATS on the road after allowing 80 points or more since 1997.
Baylor is 23-12 ATS in non-conference games the last 3 seasons.
Baylor is 78-48 ATS on the road after a non-conference game since 1997
Projected starting lineup
Baylor:
PG: L.J. Cryer
SG: Adam Flagler
SF: Keyonte George
PF: Jalen Bridges
C: Flo Thamba
Gonzaga:
PG: Rasir Bolton
SG: Nolan Hickman
SF: Julian Strawther
PF: Anton Watson
C: Drew Timme
Statistical leaders
Baylor:
Points: L.J. Cryer – 17.9
Rebounds: Caleb Lohner – 5.0
Assists: Adam Flagler – 6.9
Gonzaga:
Points: Drew Timme – 20.0
Rebounds: Julian Strawther – 8.4
Assists: Nolan Hickman – 3.4
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
