Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat Prediction, Preview and Odds - 04/11/2023

Game Time: 7:30 pm ET, Tuesday, April 11, 2023

Venue:  Kaseya Center, Miami, FL

Where to Watch:  TNT

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Hawks +5, Heat -5; Over/Under:  226.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Hawks +5, Heat -5; Over/Under:  226.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Hawks +5, Heat -5; Over/Under:  226.5 points

Atlanta Hawks:  41-41 (2nd place, Southeast Division)

Miami Heat:  44-38 (1st place, Southeast Division)

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Atlanta Hawks:  5-5 last 10

Miami Heat:  6-4 last 10

The Hawks finished the regular season with a 41-41 record overall and they were 17-24 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 2 game losing streak with losses coming against the Philadelphia 76ers and the Boston Celtics in their last game. Garrison Mathews and Bruno Fernando each led the team in points in that game with 19 while Jalen Johnson was next on the team with 15 points. Aaron Holiday led the team in assists in that game with 6 while Bruno Fernando led the team in rebounds with 10. They were 45.4% from the field, 28.2% from 3-point range, and 78.9% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 118.4 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 118.1 PPG against them. The Hawks have an ATS record of 36-45-1 this season and their O/U record is 47-35.

The Heat finished the regular season with a 44-38 record overall and they were 27-14 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off of a win against the Orlando Magic in their last game. Udonis Haslem led the team in points in that game with 24 while Duncan Robinson was next on the team with 20 points. Victor Oladipo led the team in assists in that game with 8 while Ömer Yurtseven led the team in rebounds with 7. They were 54.2% from the field, 40.9% from 3-point range, and 75% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 109.5 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 109.8 PPG against them. The Heat have an ATS record of 30-49-3 this season and their O/U record is 41-41.

The current betting odds have the Heat listed as a 5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is the play-in game for the Eastern Conference playoffs between the 7th and 8th seed where the winner of this game will earn a playoff series against the 2nd seed in the East while the loser will have to play the winner of the game between the 9th and 10th seed to see who earns the final playoff spot. The Heat ended the season with a 44-38 record overall while the Hawks were only 41-41 overall and their record really represents who they were as a team all season. They really struggled to string wins together over the last 2 months while the Heat were struggling a lot earlier in the year but have figured things out and have been playing their best in their games lately. They have been hot over the last few weeks and were 1 game away from catching the Nets in 6th for an actual playoff spot, avoiding this game altogether. Now they have to play in this game though and they will hold nothing back as they have been the better team over the last month and are more deserving of the win here. The Hawks have also been a terrible road team with their 17-24 road record while the Heat have been really good at home with their 27-14 home record. The Heat still have a better team that is finally starting to play like it lately and they are going to keep getting hot as they look to crush the Hawks here, avoiding another play-in game and focusing on their series against the Celtics. The best way to place a bet here is on the Heat to cover the spread in this game. 

Hawks Heat Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Tuesday, April 11, 2023 (7:30 pm ET start time) is Heat 111 Hawks 102.

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Atlanta Hawks: 16-4 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games. 24-16 ATS after playing a road game. 11-3 OVER in a road game where the total is 220 to 229.5.

Miami Heat: 19-36 ATS as a favorite. 7-18 ATS off a home win. 14-7 OVER as a home favorite of 6 points or less.

Atlanta Hawks:  T. Young (PG) Ques Tues - Groin. D. Murray (PG) Ques Tues - Ankle. J. Collins (PF) Ques Tues - Back. C. Capela (C) Ques Tues - Calf. B. Bogdanovic (SG) Ques Tues - Knee.

Miami Heat:  N. Jovic (SF) Out indefinitely - Back.

“Our focus needs to go immediately to Miami and what we need to do to prepare for that game.” - Quin Snyder after his team’s loss against the Celtics in their game on Sunday.

“He is the ultimate competitor, the ultimate teammate, the ultimate winner. He's about all the right things. He also has that ‘it’ quality and he's always had that.” - Erik Spoelstra after his team’s win against the Magic in their game on Sunday.

PG Trae Young

SG Dejounte Murray

SF De'Andre Hunter

PF John Collins

C Clint Capela

PG Gabe Vincent

SG Tyler Herro

SF Max Strus

PF Jimmy Butler 

C Bam Adebayo

PPG: T. Young (26.2)

APG: T. Young (10.2)

Reb/G: C. Capela (11)

PPG: J. Butler (22.9)

APG: J. Butler (5.3)

Reb/G: B. Adebayo (9.2)

Coaches:

Atlanta Hawks: Quin Snyder (1st season)

Miami Heat: Erik Spoelstra (15th season)