Air Force Falcons vs. Utah State Aggies: Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 2/14/2023

Time: 9 p.m. ET

Venue: Dee Glen Smith Spectrum, Logan, UT

Where to watch: TBD

DraftKings: Utah State -13

FanDuel: Utah State -13.5

BetMGM: Utah State -12.5

Caesars: Utah State -13

Air Force: 13-13 (4-9 Mountain West)

Utah State: 19-7 (8-5 Mountain West)

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Air Force: won 89-77 vs. New Mexico

Utah State: lost 69-64 at San Jose State

In the blink of an eye, the Utah State Aggies are suddenly in trouble. After two straight losses, including what might be the most disappointing they’ve all season, the Aggies are trying to avoid a three-game losing streak on Valentine’s Day when they host the Air Force Falcons, a .500 group that’s riding a high right now.

 

Utah State, despite what might be a season that ends up in the NCAA Tournament, have lost two in a row with a 69-64 loss at San Jose State on Saturday in what is their most lackluster loss of the season against a middle-of-the-road team.

 

But it's not just the fact that Utah State lost a game to San Jose State because in any given weekend this could happen. And nothing should be taken away from San Jose State because they were able to win this game. It's the fact that Utah State has now lost two games in a row and suddenly is falling down in the pecking order in the Mountain West Conference when they were considered one of the top powerhouses in the conference for the better part of the season.

 

It's not like Utah State didn't get the balanced scoring that it usually gets because they did. Steven Ashworth had 14 points and led all of Utah State scorers but the Aggies shot just 42.3% from the floor and only six of 18 from the three-point line. The Aggies had absolutely no answer for Omari Moore, who led the way with a game-high 27 points and the Spartans outrebounded them 36-27.

 

You're not going to find many instances where Utah State gets out rebounded very convincingly against the team that has never been known for being a solid rebounding team. If you put all of that together you are going to find yourself on the losing end more times than none and for what it's worth, the last two games have more or less told us that Utah State is not in the same echelon as Boise State, Nevada, or even New Mexico. The latter might not even be considered a contender considering the opponent for Utah State this weekend just knocked off New Mexico.

 

That is correct. Air Force defeated New Mexico at home 89-77 last week in what was perhaps the win of the year for the Falcons after they had lost four in a row going into this game. And it's not like Air Force was expecting a whole lot different from the last meeting on January 27th in which Air Force only lost by eight. It was the kind of situation where Air Force needed to make their shots, they were going to get a lot of shots, and they were able to come away with a victory.

 

I can promise you that Air Force will not be making 66% of its shots like it did in this game. I can promise you that Air Force will not have another game like it did against the lobos. Because it's one thing to make all of your shots at home with that altitude and with all that momentum around you. It's another situation to go into the House of a team that is angry after losing two in a row, and expect the same results.

 

The favorite has covered in six of the last seven meetings and considering that the spread for Utah State is nearing 2 touchdowns, I do not envy Air Force in this situation at all. I hope they enjoyed their moment under the sun last week against New Mexico. It's not happening again. Utah State 80, Air Force 64

Air Force is 63-34 ATS as a road underdog of 12.5 or more since 1997.

Air Force is 6-7 ATS after a conference game this season.

Utah State is 14-8 ATS as a favorite this season.

PG: Marcell McCreary

SG: Jake Heidbreder

SF: Ethan Taylor

PF: Rytis Petraitis

C: Beau Becker

PG: Steven Ashworth

SG: Max Shulga

SF: Sean Bairstow

PF: Taylor Funk

C: Daniel Akin

Points: Jake Heidbreder -- 13.8

Rebounds: Rytis Petraitis -- 5.7

Assists: Ethan Taylor -- 3.4

Points: Steven Ashworth -- 15.3

Rebounds: Daniel Akin -- 7.5

Assists: Steven Ashworth -- 4.7