by Chuck Sommers
Thursday, Jan 26, 2023
Time: 10 p.m. ET
Venue: The Pit, Albuquerque, NM
Where to watch: CBS Sports Network
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: New Mexico -12.5
FanDuel: NL
BetMGM: NL
Caesars: New Mexico -12.5
Season record
Air Force: 12-9 (3-5 Mountain West)
No. 25 New Mexico: 18-3 (5-3 Mountain West)
We’re nearing the halfway mark of the college basketball season and it’s been quite the ride so far. Will Rogers is going hard in the last 30 days with a 16-10-1 run, while Kyle Hunter has also had a strong run of form as of late at 28-24-0 (+$1,700). If they’ve been killing it as much as they were in the first half, what does the second half have in store? The only way you’re going to find out is by staying locked on bigal.com and following what our champion handicappers are up to heading into the second half. Trust us, you want to know.
Air Force - New Mexico preview, prediction and analysis
Recent form
Air Force: lost 82-52 at San Jose State on Tuesday
New Mexico: lost 97-94 (2OT) at Nevada-Reno on Monday
The No. 25 New Mexico Lobos will try to avenge themselves from a tough loss in Reno earlier this week to take on the Air Force Falcons back in home in Albuquerque on Friday.
The No. 25 New Mexico Lobos will try to avenge themselves from a tough loss in Reno earlier this week to take on the Air Force Falcons back in home in Albuquerque on Friday.
New Mexico is coming off what could be a game-of-the-year candidate on Monday in a 97-94 double-overtime loss to Nevada-Reno. Jamal Mashburn Jr. scored a career-high 33 points for New Mexico, who had a four-game winning streak end and likely will find themselves outside of the top 25 as quickly as they got in last week.
Mashburn, the son of the former NBA All-Star, has topped 20 points in five straight games and is well on his way to being the Mountain West’s Player of the Year. Jaelen House had 17 points and 10 assists to go with seven rebounds, and Morruse Udeze had a double-double of his own with 16 points and 10 rebounds.
New Mexico had a 5-point lead in overtime before UNR took over and started forcing turnovers. Reno closed the game on a 15-7 run in overtime.
For as good a start New Mexico had, the Lobos are still fourth in the Mountain West at 18-3 with a 5-3 conference record. They’re looking up now to UNR, a game ahead of them, and conference leaders Boise State and San Diego State. They can be considered one of those favorites, especially after beating San Diego State back on Jan. 14, but there’s a lot to be had before the conference tournament begins, even if New Mexico has the best 21-game start of anyone in the league right now. The Lobos have covered four of their last five against the spread, as well, even the loss to Reno by a half-point (+3.5).
Air Force has lost two in a row coming into Friday’s matchup after losing 82-52 to the San Jose State on Tuesday. After winning three straight, including road wins at Colorado State and Fresno State, the Falcons have fallen hard and have plummeted down to 12-9 on the year.
The Falcons shot 38.8% from the floor and only 4 of 22 from 3-point range. Camden Vander Zwagg finished with 11 points in 19 minutes, a game-high, in which every player from rotation to bench played for Air Force and nothing delivered.
The Falcons dropped to 3-5 in the conference and are in danger of dropping even further due to the schedule, starting with New Mexico and its tough defense. Air Force has failed to cover in four of the last seven.
Prediction
You have to think that New Mexico is angry with how Monday went, especially with the non-calls and bad calls alike. Against an inferior conference opponent, the Lobos should have no problem with this one. New Mexico 85, Air Force 68
Betting trends
Air Force is 16-12 ATS as a road underdog the last 3 seasons.
Air Force is 21-25 ATS against conference opponents the last 3 seasons.
New Mexico is 8-7 ATS as a favorite this season.
New Mexico is 1-7 ATS after winning 3 of 4 the last 3 seasons.
Projected starting lineup
Air Force:
PG: Marcell McCreary
SG: Jake Heidbreder
SF: Ethan Taylor
PF: Beau Becker
C: Rytis Petraitis
New Mexico:
PG: Jaelen House
SG: Jamal Mashburn Jr.
SF: Javonte Johnson
PF: Josiah Allick
C: Morris Udeze
Statistical leaders
Air Force:
Points: Jake Heidbreder -- 14.4
Rebounds: Rytis Petraitis -- 5.6
Assists: Ethan Taylor -- 3.5
New Mexico:
Points: Jamal Mashburn Jr. -- 19.3
Rebounds: Morris Udeze -- 8.5
Assists: Jaelen House -- 4.8
Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert basketball picks today. And if you enjoyed this Air Force - New Mexico prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily college basketball projections and previews.
Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
