by Chuck Sommers
Thursday, Feb 02, 2023
Time: 11 p.m. ET
Venue: Lawlor Events Center, Reno, NV
Where to watch: CBS Sports Network
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: UNR -11
FanDuel: UNR -10.5
BetMGM: UNR -11.5
Caesars: UNR -11
Season record
Air Force: 12-11 (3-7 Mountain West)
Nevada-Reno: 17-6 (7-3 Mountain West)
February is here and the college basketball season is taking full shape. Conference races still to be determined, the top 25 completely in shambles for what seems like every week, and there's bound to be an upset what seems like every single week. But as the season continues to progress with what seems like exciting action every week, you know our champion handicappers continue to put the work in each and every week to not only make money for them, but to ensure you get money in your pocket. All you need to do is look at the last 30 days. Scott Rickenbach has reeled in a net profit of $14,000 with a 24-9-0 run on the college hardwood. Team Del Genio has killed it with a 13-1-0 run at +$11,900. Will Rogers (28-15-0) and Matt Fargo (40-27-0) have also seen five figures over the last 30 days with college basketball. Surely, you want to get on this winning as well. All you need to do is go to bigal.com, check out our Best Bets page and make sure you are following along on the action. March will be here before you know it! Take advantage of our best best plays and find out what our champion handicappers are doing at bigal.com!
Air Force - Nevada-Reno preview, prediction and analysis
Recent form
Air Force: lost 59-52 vs. Boise State
UNR: won 75-66 vs. No. 22 San Diego State
The Nevada-Reno Wolfpack are looking for some form of consistency, wherever in the world that may be. But maybe their opponent, the Air Force Falcons, could provide that when the two teams meet at Lawlor Events Center in Reno on Friday.
The Nevada-Reno Wolfpack are looking for some form of consistency, wherever in the world that may be. But maybe their opponent, the Air Force Falcons, could provide that when the two teams meet at Lawlor Events Center in Reno on Friday.
UNR is coming off a 75-66 win at home over No. 22 San Diego State on Tuesday, a much-needed bounce-back win after losing 68-62 at UNLV three days prior. Getting back to homecourt advantage came in handy for the Wolf Pack.
Jared Lucas scored 26 points to lead UNR, and Will Baker added 19 points and eight rebounds for their second straight win over a ranked opponent for the first time in program history. It seems like it was forever ago, but that’s how UNR beat New Mexico in that double-overtime thriller, 97-94, a week ago.
“It’s always special when you get a big win,” Lucas said. “We kind of looked at it as a must-win to keep in the race for the Mountain West championship. We’ve got a long ways to go, but it put us in a good position.”
UNR is only one game back now of Boise State at the top of the conference standings. While San Diego State has to take care of business there, things are looking good for UNR heading into this game. But Reno did cover for the first time in four games and has been an underdog in three of the last four, including getting 2.5 against the Aztecs. Don’t expect that this time around.
“Our guys are jacked. They’re excited,” Nevada coach Steve Alford said. “If you’ve followed this team you know they’re fun to watch.”
That’s because Air Force is coming into this game having lost four straight with the most recent a 59-52 loss to the aforementioned top-of-the-conference Broncos on Tuesday. The Falcons did cover as 8-point underdogs at home, but still wasn’t enough.
Rytis Petraitis, with one incredible name, led the way with 20 points on 8 of 12 shooting and was unequivocally the only Air Force player that showed up in this game. The Falcons shot 39 percent from the floor and an absolutely abysmal 4 of 24 from behind the 3-point line.
Being a bad team calls for a lot of underdog play, and Air Force has found a way to cover in five of the last seven games. The Falcons were getting 8 points against Boise State and 13 against New Mexico, both games decided by less than 10 points.
Prediction
This shouldn’t be too much of a thought. UNR is a much better team, but I do wonder if Air Force can keep it close with UNR getting 11.5 at most books. I think it’s best to take the points in this situation but UNR gets the win. UNR 81, Air Force 71
Betting trends
Air Force is 27-27 ATS as an underdog the last 3 seasons.
Air Force is 23-25 ATS against conference opponents the last 3 seasons.
UNR is 10-3 ATS as a favorite this season.
UNR is 12-4 ATS after 2 straight games of making at least 78 percent of their free throws the last 3 seasons.
Projected starting lineup
Air Force:
PG: Marcell McCreary
SG: Jake Heidbreder
SF: Ethan Taylor
PF: Rytis Petraitis
C: Beau Becker
Nevada-Reno:
PG: Jarod Lucas
SG: Tre Coleman
SF: Darrion Williams
PF: Kenan Blackshear
C: Will Baker
Statistical leaders
Air Force:
Points: Jake Heidbreder -- 13.8
Rebounds: Rytis Petraitis -- 5.7
Assists: Ethan Taylor -- 3.4
Nevada-Reno:
Points: Jarod Lucas -- 17.3
Rebounds: Darrion Williams -- 7.2
Assists: Kenan Blackshear -- 4.7
Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert basketball picks today. And if you enjoyed this Air Force Falcons - Nevada-Reno Wolf Pack prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily college basketball projections and previews.
Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
