2024 AFC East Overview and Betting Preview
by Matt Fargo
Tuesday, Aug 20, 20242024 AFC East Overview and Betting Preview Regular Season Win Totals and AFC East/Super Bowl Odds (via DraftKings)Buffalo Bills: 10.5 Over +130 Under -155 ~ AFC East Winner +180 ~ Super Bowl Winner +1,500New York Jets: 9.5 Over -155 Under +130 ~ AFC East Winner +180 ~ Super Bowl Winner +2,000Miami Dolphins: 9.5 Over -135 Under -180 ~ AFC East Winner +200 ~ Super Bowl Winner +2,200New England Patriots: 4.5 Over -135 Under +110 ~ AFC East Winner +2,500 ~ Super Bowl Winner +18,000 Coaching ChangesNew England Patriots: Bill Belichick Out ~ Jerod Mayo InTeam PreviewsBuffalo Bills: 12-7 ~ 4-2 AFC East ~ 8-10-1 ATS ~ 8-11-0 O/UWon AFC East, Lost in AFC Divisional Round2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 7 Notable Additions: QB Mitchell Trubisky, WR Curtis Samuel, WR Mack Hollins, OT La'el Collins, C Will Clapp, DE Casey Toohill, DT Austin Johnson, LB Nicholas Morrow, S Mike Edwards Notable Losses: QB Kyle Allen, RB Damien Harris, WR Stefon Diggs, WR Gabe Davis, WR Trent Sherfield, C Mitch Morse, DE Shaq Lawson, DT Linval Joseph, DT Tim Settle, DT Poona Ford, DE/OLB Leonard Floyd, LB Tyrel Dodson, CB Tre'Davious White, CB Dane Jackson, S Micah Hyde, S Jordan Poyer Notable Draft Selections: WR Keon Coleman, S Cole Bishop, DT DeWayne Carter, RB Ray Davis, C Sedric Van Pran Buffalo won its fifth consecutive AFC East title last season but also coming off its fifth consecutive season of playoff disappointment. The Bills have won their last four Wild Card Round games but have dropped their last three Divisional Round games, all at home, including a devastating 27-24 loss to Kansas City last season. While not a complete rebuild around quarterback Josh Allen, Buffalo has replaced many pieces from these past teams, notably receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, center Mitch Morse and most of their starting secondary and this fresh start could be just what they need. Injuries hurt them throughout the season, mostly on the defense but the Bills still finished No. 8 in Defensive EPA and they allowed more than 24 points only four times. Those injuries could actually help going into this season with other players stepping up and gaining needed experience and winning jobs. Buffalo has already sustained a tough loss as All-Pro linebacker Matt Milano will miss about half the season with a bicep tear after missing a big chunk of last season as well. The offense took off after offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey was fired and Joe Brady was promoted and now having a full offseason and training camp, he will have them ready. The receiving corps will have a whole new look and after finishing No. 4 in Offensive Passing EPA, this group will be the wild card of how the offense continues to be productive. We do not see any value in betting the 10.5 wins as a revamped roster along with a tough schedule will make it tough getting to 11 wins and we have no interest laying -155 on the under. The Bills have dropped to AFC East co-favorites with the Jets and it will be important to get through the first seven games with at least a 5-2 record as their next seven games are all against teams that had winning records last season including five double-digit winners. Buffalo is tied with the Eagles for the sixth lowest Super Bowl odds at +1,500 but this is the highest they have been since 2020 when they were +3,000 (+900, +600 and +1,100 the last three years) so there could be value there this season banking on the fact they are not overhyped and will not be over bet. New York Jets: 7-10 ~ 2-4 AFC East ~ 6-10-1 ATS ~ 7-10-0 O/UFinished 3rd in the AFC East, Missed Playoffs2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 14Notable Additions: QB Tyrod Taylor, WR Mike Williams, OT Tyron Smith, OT Morgan Moses, G John Simpson, DE Haason Reddick, DT Javon Kinlaw, DT Leki Fotu, CB Isaiah Oliver Notable Losses: TE C.J. Uzomah, OT Duane Brown, OT Billy Turner, G Laken Tomlinson, C Connor McGovern, DE Carl Lawson, DE Bryce Huff, DT Quinton Jefferson, S Jordan Whitehead Notable Draft Selections: OT Olu Fashanu, WR Malachi Corley, RB Braelon Allen The Jets have not made the playoff since 2010, the longest active drought in the NFL at 13 seasons and that was all supposed to change last season with quarterback Aaron Rodgers signing with New York but those aspirations lasted four plays into the season when he went down with a torn Achillies and was lost for the season. It was up to Zack Wilson to take over the offense and it was a disaster with New York finishing dead last in the league in Offensive EPA and Offensive Passing EPA. Rodgers is back to full health but he is 41 years old and that injury risk is always there. The Jets shored up the offensive line by signing Tyron Smith but he too is an injury waiting to happen. Garrett Wilson is one of the best wide receivers in the NFL and they are hoping Mike Williams can strengthen the unit but again, he is an injury risk coming off a torn ACL. The defense kept the Jets respectable last season as they were No. 3 in Defensive EPA thanks to an outstanding secondary which should be even better with safety Chuck Clark coming back after missing all of last season with a torn ACL. The rushing defense was an issue but Quinnen Williams can still dominate and the signing of Leki Fotu could be a huge addition. The lingering issue is newly acquired Haason Reddick who still has not signed and has requested a trade but if they can work this out, this will again be one of the best units in the AFC. If Rodgers can stay healthy, this team can be very dangerous. A big if though. The Jets have the same win total as last season at 9.5 but it is more juiced at -155 compared to -125 in 2023 and this is risky bet based on many of the players they are relying on having had prior injury issues. It is a middle of the pack schedule with the possibility of 11-12 wins if everything goes right but in the NFL, we can never count on that. New York has shorter odds to win the division than they did last season with the retooled Buffalo roster having an impact on that. Again, this is another bet that will come down to the health of the roster. The Jets are +138 to miss the playoffs and that is an interesting bet to hedge with the +2,000 to win the Super Bowl as it would be a small win if they do not with a chance to still hedge in the playoffs if they do. Miami Dolphins: 11-7 ~ 4-2 AFC East ~ 10-8-0 ATS ~ 9-9-0 O/UFinished 2nd in the AFC East, Lost in AFC Wild Card Round2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 24 Notable Additions: TE Jonnu Smith, OT Jack Driscoll, C Aaron Brewer, DT Calais Campbell, DT Neville Gallimore, DT Benito Jones, DE/OLB Shaq Barrett, LB Jordyn Brooks, LB Anthony Walker, CB Kendall Fuller, CB Siran Neal, S Jordan Poyer Notable Losses: WR Cedrick Wilson, G Robert Hunt, C Connor Williams, DE Andrew Van Ginkel, DE Emmanuel Ogbah, DT Christian Wilkins, DT Raekwon Davis, LB Jerome Baker, CB Xavien Howard, CB Eli Apple, S Brandon Jones, S Jerome Baker Notable Draft Selections: DE Chop Robinson, OT Patrick Paul, RB Jaylen Wright, DE/OLB Mo Kamara Miami opened the season 5-1 with an offense that could not be stopped with the lone loss over that stretch coming at Buffalo and that was a sign of things to come. Those five wins were all against non-playoff teams and of their 11 total victories, a two-point win over Dallas was the Dolphins only one against a team that made the postseason. They face an easy schedule for a second place team as they play 10 games against non-playoff teams from last season but of the other seven games, five of those are on the road. Possibly more important, they have only one home game at 1:00 prior to October 27 so they cannot take advantage of the heat and humidity edge hurting the opponents. Like many teams, the Dolphins offense was hurt by injuries with wide receiver Tyreke Hill being banged up in the second half of the season and the offensive line absolutely getting crushed. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was the one surprise that remained healthy and he led the NFL in passing with 4,624 yards but he does have a past. Miami has one of the best duo running back in Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane. The defense was just average and by the end of the season, they were too banged up to make any sort of playoff run. They lost Jaelan Phillips and Jalen Ramsey at different points so staying healthy will be a big part of improving their No. 15 Defensive EPA from last season. They lost tackle Christian Wilkins, end Andrew Van Ginkel and linebacker Jerome Baker so there are holes to fill. The Dolphins are with the Jets at 9.5 wins but at smaller odds which could make them the more tempting take if deciding between the two. The intangible is their home/road splits with the schedule as they have one additional road game and have no home advantage in September and early October. Miami is slightly behind the Jets and Bills at +200 and this is where the value could lie as they are sort of the forgotten team in the mix even though they were +300 last year and +475 in 2022. The Dolphins have roughly the same odds as last season to win the conference and the Super Bowl and with their roster, they arguably have the highest ceiling in the division so a sprinkle on both of those could be the way to go. New England Patriots: 4-13 ~ 2-4 AFC East ~ 5-11-1 ATS ~ 7-10-0 O/UFinished 4th in the AFC East, Missed Playoffs2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 8 Notable Additions: QB Jacoby Brissett, RB Antonio Gibson, WR K.J. Osborn, TE Austin Hooper, OT Chukwuma Okorafor, G Nick Leverett, DT Armon Watts, ILB Sione Takitaki, S Jaylinn Hawkins Notable Losses: QB Mac Jones, RB Ezekiel Elliott, TE Mike Gesicki, OT Trent Brown, C James Ferentz, LB Mack Wilson, CB Myles Bryant, CB J.C. Jackson, S Jalen Mills Notable Draft Selections: QB Drake Maye, WR Ja'Lynn Polk, OT Caedan Wallace, G Layden Robinson, WR Javon Baker It has been a quick descent for the Patriots as they are coming off a 4-13 season which was their worst record since going 2-14 back in 1992. They have missed the playoffs in consecutive years for the first time since 1999-2000 and you can pretty much assure that the streak will hit three seasons. Now they will play their first season without head coach Bill Belichick as his tenure in New England has come to an end after 24 seasons. It will be up Jerod Mayo to put a competitive team on the field with very little to work with and playing in a very strong division. The offense was atrocious as the Patriots finished No. 31 in Offensive EPA and the Mac Jones era is over after a short stint. New England hopes they did not draft a Jones clone in quarterback Drake Maye but he will likely serve as the backup to Jacoby Brissett. Whoever gets the nod does not have a clear No. 1 receiver to throw to as Kendrick Bourne is the top guy but is coming off a torn ACL and will not be 100 percent. The offensive line is a mess which could hinder the production of Rhamondre Stevenson. New England was actually solid on defense as they were No. 9 in EPA and that unit will be the only thing that keeps them somewhat competitive. This does not look like a last place schedule as outside of playing the AFC East and AFC South, the crossover games feature six of seven games against opponents that should be right in the playoff mix with Arizona being the lone exception although the Cardinals will be much improved. The oddsmakers are not seeing much improvement as they have put a 4.5-win total on them after not coming close to the 7.5-win total placed on them last season. After going 8-0-2 to the over from 2010-2019, New England has gone under three of the last four years, eclipsing the total by just a half-game in 2021. The schedule is pretty brutal and with plus money next to the under, that would be the way to go as they are likely to be underdogs in every game this season. As far as any division, conference or Super Bowl bets, save your cash. DraftKings does have the Patriots at +2,500 to go 0-17, along with the Broncos and Panthers, and while any team going winless is getting less likely in this league, this could be the one team to do it.
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