New York Mets vs Kansas City Royals Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/11/2025

Game Time: 8:10 pm ET, Friday, July 11, 2025

Venue:  Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO

Where to Watch:  SNY, FDSKC

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Mets -144, Royals +118; Over/Under:  9 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Mets -145, Royals +120; Over/Under:  9 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Mets -145, Royals +120; Over/Under:  9 runs

New York Mets:  53-39 (2nd place, NL East)

Kansas City Royals:  46-48 (2nd place, AL Central)

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New York Mets:  5-5 last 10

Kansas City Royals:  7-3 last 10

The Mets won their 3-game series against the New York Yankees 2-1. They enter this game with a 53-39 record overall and have a road record of 20-25. This is the series opener of a 3-game series with the Royals on Friday with the 2nd game and the series finale of their series against the Baltimore Orioles still to be played on Thursday in a double-header. The Mets won the series opener of that series on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 7th in the MLB with a .742 OPS. Brandon Waddell is their starting pitcher on Thursday while Kodai Senga is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 7-3 with a 1.47 ERA this season. His team won their last 4 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 0 ER, 0 HR, and 1 BB with 5 SO on 1 hit through 5.2 IP against the Washington Nationals.

The Royals are entering this series off a win and completed the sweep in their 3-game series against the Pittsburgh Pirates 3-0 in their last series. They enter this game with a 46-48 record overall and have a home record of 23-24. This is the 1st game of a 3-game series with the Mets on Friday and they have Thursday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 25th in the MLB with a .675 OPS. Kris Bubic was their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Michael Wacha is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 4-9 with a 3.83 ERA this season. His team lost their last 3 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 4 earned runs, 0 homers, and 4 walks with 4 strikeouts on 4 hits through 4 innings pitched against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

The current betting odds have the Mets listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Mets have looked really good in their games this season with their 53-39 record overall which has them right near the top of the NL East. They haven't been a good road team though with their 20-25 road record this season. Meanwhile, the Royals haven't looked great in their games this season with their 46-48 record overall, but that record has them right near the top of the AL Central in a weak division. They haven't even looked that good in their own ballpark either with their 23-24 home record. The Royals have been getting hot lately as they are 7-3 in their last 10 games, but they are still a team with a losing record and they aren't going to keep this up for much longer. The Mets are only 5-5 in their last 10 games, but they have been consistent all season and they also have the better pitching matchup in this one. Wacha is on the mound for the Royals in this one and he has looked good this season. He is 4-9 with a 3.83 ERA and hasn't been giving up a lot of runs this year, but the team hasn't had a ton of success with him either. He is coming off a start in which he just gave up 4 earned runs and the team has also lost 3 games in a row with him starting too. The Mets are going with Senga in this one and he has looked great this season. He is 7-3 with a 1.47 ERA and didn't give up any runs in his last start. The team has also won 4 games in a row with him starting so all signs point to the Mets here. The best way to place a bet here is on the Mets to win this game. 

Mets Royals Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Friday, July 11, 2025 (8:10 pm ET start time) is Mets 5 Royals 2.

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New York Mets: 111-80 (+9.5 units) on the moneyline when the money line is -100 to -150. 170-136 (+18.7 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 143-123 (+7.2 units) on the moneyline in night games. 35-24 UNDER on the road in an inter-league game.

Kansas City Royals: 190-234 (-17.8 units) on the moneyline in all games. 100-110 (-10.3 units) on the moneyline in home games. 109-167 (-12 units) on the moneyline as an underdog of +100 or higher. 13-6 UNDER vs. NL teams allowing 4.0 or less runs/game on the season.

New York Mets:  S. Marte (LF) Ten Day IL - Knee. T. Megill (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Butto (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Illness. D. Nunez (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. P. Blackburn (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. G. Canning (SP) Sixty Day IL - Achilles. J. Siri (CF) Sixty Day IL - Shin. M. Kranick (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. K. Senga (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Hamstring. D. Young (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. A. Minter (RP) Sixty Day IL - Lat. B. Raley (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. S. Manaea (SP) Sixty Day IL - Oblique. C. Scott (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. N. Madrigal (3B) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. D. Smith (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

Kansas City Royals:  M. Canha (LF) Ten Day IL - Elbow. C. Ragans (SP) Sixty Day IL - Rotator Cuff. D. Lynch IV (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. M. Massey (2B) Ten Day IL - Ankle. H. Harvey (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. A. Marsh (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. J. McArthur (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

“We knew how important he is for this ballclub -- the versatility, the speed. There’s a lot of upside there. He was a big part of this team the first couple of months.” - Carlos Mendoza on sending Luisangel Acuna down to the minors. 

“To turn the game like that with big swings and provide some slug for the offense is huge. I know we don’t tend to hit a ton of homers here, but those guys can hit them out anywhere. To see them step up in big situations -- Jac hits the ball harder than anybody, so we knew that was coming. And Salvy, time and time again coming up in clutch situations. It doesn’t surprise us one bit.” - Kris Bubic after their win against the Pirates in their game on Wednesday.

Brandon Nimmo (L) LF

Francisco Lindor (S) SS

Juan Soto (L) RF

Pete Alonso (R) 1B

Jesse Winker (L) DH

Ronny Mauricio (S) 3B

Luis Torrens (R) C

Brett Baty (L) 2B

Tyrone Taylor (R) CF

Jonathan India (R) 2B

Bobby Witt Jr. (R) SS

Vinnie Pasquantino (L) DH

Maikel Garcia (R) 3B

Salvador Perez (R) 1B

Jac Caglianone (L) RF

Nick Loftin (R) LF

Freddy Fermin (R) C

Tyler Tolbert (R) CF

Batting Average:  Pete Alonso (.287)

Hits:  Pete Alonso (100)

Home Runs:  Juan Soto (21)

RBI:  Pete Alonso (75)

Stolen Bases:  Francisco Lindor (14)

Wins:  Clay Holmes (8)

Saves:  Edwin Díaz (18)

ERA:  Rico Garcia (0.00)

Batting Average:  Luke Maile (.375)

Hits:  Bobby Witt (109)

Home Runs:  Vinnie Pasquantino (15)

RBI:  Vinnie Pasquantino (56)

Stolen Bases:  Bobby Witt (25)

Wins:  Kris Bubic (7)

Saves:  Carlos Estévez (25)

ERA:  Hunter Harvey (0.00)

Managers:

New York Mets: Carlos Mendoza (2nd season)

Kansas City Royals: Matt Quatraro (3rd season)