by Chuck Sommers
Saturday, Jan 28, 2023
Time: 9 p.m. ET
Venue: Vivint Arena, Salt Lake City, UT
Where to watch: ATTSN-RM, BSSW-DAL
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Jazz -7.5; UTAH -315, DAL +260
FanDuel: Jazz -8; UTAH -320, DAL +260
BetMGM: Jazz -7.5; UTAH -350, DAL +260
Caesars: Jazz -7.5; UTAH -333, DAL +260
Season record
Mavs: 26-24
Jazz: 25-26
The second half of the basketball season is upon us, and what a cluster we've got in the standings right now, right? So many teams are in the playoff hunt, so many teams not expected to make the playoffs are in the process of trying to prove people wrong. You know who doesn't need to be made wrong? Our champion handicappers who have been killing it all year long. Scott Rickenbach is coming off a 5-2-0 week over the last seven days, while Doc's Sports has been efficient at 14-8-0 over the last 30 days. Do you want to get on this winning? Make sure you're following our champion handicappers at bigal.com to celebrate in these moments!
Mavs - Jazz preview, prediction and analysis
The Dallas Mavericks will try for a second straight win in tough circumstances when they visit the Utah Jazz on Saturday in Salt Lake City.
The Mavs will not have superstar Luka Doncic available due to an ankle sprain he suffered Thursday against the Phoenix Suns. The good news is they won that game, 99-95, thanks to the Herculean effort from Spencer Dinwiddie.
Dallas’ backcourt co-star with Doncic scored 36 points, dished nine assists and grabbed six rebounds in what was without question his best performance of the season. Dinwiddie shot 10 of 18 from the floor, made 5 of 6 3-point attempts and hit 11 of 14 from the free-throw line. Dorian Finney-Smith had 18 points and 12 rebounds, and Dwight Powell chipped in with 15 points.
“It's just a shift in mindset in understanding the volume's going to come and I've got to be more aggressive,” Dinwiddie said.
“It's just an all-around great team effort,” Finney-Smith said. “Once we found out (Luka) was out, we just stepped up.”
Dallas has still lost five of seven and has failed to cover in those five of seven, which included that 127-126 loss to the Washington Wizards on Jan. 24 when they were 7-point favorites. But to put all of that together and somehow stifle a Phoenix team that was starting to get it together, is quite remarkable.
But playing without Doncic is going to take another big effort from the Mavs, especially when the Jazz are playing as well as they are and have. Utah has won three of five but is coming off a 134-124 loss to the Portland Trail Blazers on Jan. 25. Lauri Markkanen did well with 24 points on 7 of 16 shooting.
But that wasn’t the performance that was talked about. Damian Lillard scored 60 points on 21 of 29 shooting, made nine 3-pointers, and only missed one free throw.
“I think any time you score 60 points it’s special, but I think this one I just felt like it came pretty simple," Lillard said. “I thought I played the game as it should’ve been played. I knew we needed to win so I came out with a mentality to attack and be aggressive, but it wasn’t like I just came out on fire. It wasn’t one of those games.”
Jordan Clarkson finished with 18 points, and Collin Sexton had 19 points in 22 minutes off the bench.
“I guess in theory we could have sent three people at him,” Jazz coach Will Harvey quipped about Lillard.
Prediction
The Jazz have covered in four of the last six, but things are looking promising without Doncic in the lineup. This would require a big effort from Dinwiddie again especially if without Christian Wood, as well. Jazz 110, Mavs 105
Betting trends
Mavs are 3-12 ATS after allowing 105 points or less this season.
Mavs are 32-15 ATS after scoring 100 points or less the last 3 seasons.
Jazz are 8-2 ATS against Southwest Division opponents this season.
Projected starting lineup
Mavs:
PG: Spencer Dinwiddie
SG: Tim Hardaway Jr.
SF: Josh Green
PF: Dorian Finney-Smith
C: Dwight Powell
Jazz:
PG: Mike Conley
SG: Jordan Clarkson
SF: Lauri Markkanen
PF: Rudy Gay
C: Walker Kessler
Injury report
Mavs: Luka Doncic (ankle, out), Christian Wood (thumb, out), Maxi Kleber (hamstring, out)
Jazz: Kelly Olynyk (ankle, out)
Mavs: Luka Doncic (ankle, out), Christian Wood (thumb, out), Maxi Kleber (hamstring, out)
Jazz: Kelly Olynyk (ankle, out)
Statistical leaders
Mavs:
Points: Luka Doncic -- 33.0
Rebounds: Luka Doncic -- 8.9
Assists: Luka Doncic -- 8.4
Jazz:
Points: Lauri Markkanen -- 24.8
Rebounds: Lauri Markkanen -- 8.7
Assists: Mike Conley -- 7.5
Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert basketball picks today. And if you enjoyed this Dallas Mavericks - Utah Jazz prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily NBA projections and previews.
Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
