by Chuck Sommers
Tuesday, Oct 19, 2021
Game time: 1 p.m. ET
Venue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL
Where to watch: FOX
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Falcons -2.5
BetMGM: NL
Caesars: Falcons -2.5
Season record
Falcons: 2-3 (Last place, NFC South)
Dolphins: 1-5 (Last place, AFC East)
Scott Rickenbaugh topped the weekly charts in NFL with a 5-1-0 week, topping a net profit of $3,910. Catch Scott’s and other plays available right now at the Shop Picks page, where you can find all of the Best Bets from our champion sports handicappers.
Falcons - Dolphins preview and analysis
Last week
Falcons: Bye
Dolphins: lost 23-20 vs. Jaguars in Week 6 (London)
Just when you thought there could be no team more suited for heartbreak and humiliation, the Miami Dolphins show that anything is possible if you truly believe.
Because there’s nothing more horrendous than two Florida teams meeting in London and somehow losing to the team that has more of a realistic chance of actually relocating to London.
But even with Tua Tagovailoa back in the fold, the Dolphins fell to 1-5 this past weekend and are in serious danger of falling out of playoff favor for a team that had so much promise.
The Dolphins are in must-win territory as they head back across the pond for a matchup against the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday in Miami.
Tagovailoa returned Sunday after a three-game absence due to fractured ribs and looked pretty good. He threw for 329 yards on 33 of 47 passing and had two touchdowns. We’re not going to acknowledge that horrible interception because that’s too much pain for the Dolphins to handle.
Not as painful as Matthew Wright hitting two field goals from at least 53 yards in the final 3:40 to give the Dolphins their fifth straight loss, 23-20 against the Jacksonville Jaguars, but alas, such is life.
Miami only totaled 77 rushing yards on 20 carries with the Jaguars forcing the Dolphins to win through the air. To that point, they almost did. Tagovailoa had 329 through the air, but also ran for 22 on three carries.
The Dolphins don’t have an offense that will strike fear into defenses, and don’t have a defense that rivals last season’s that led the league in takeaways. But they’re also facing a Falcons offense that should be much better than it is.
Perhaps it is the world we live in that Matt Ryan is no longer the MVP-caliber quarterback he once was. With the weapons around him like Calvin Ridley and Kyle Pitts, the hope was that it would be a much more fluid offense for Atlanta this season.
Atlanta is coming off its bye week, but had fun in London of their own winning by seven over the New York Jets. Nevermind the fact that the Falcons almost blew that lead, but at least it wasn’t 28-3. Ryan threw for 342 yards and two touchdowns, while Pitts had a career-high 119 yards and a touchdown.
Prediction
Back at home, I think Miami keeps it close in a one-score game, but the Falcons ultimately pull away with the win. The Dolphins struggle with tight ends, and I’d expect Pitts to have another strong game against an inferior AFC East team. Falcons win by 7
Betting trends
The Falcons are 35-59 ATS since 1992 while allowing seven or more passing yards per attempt.
The Dolphins are 25-45 ATS since 1992 against teams with a losing record.
Players to watch
Falcons: Cordarrelle Patterson didn’t have a touchdown last week, but he still had seven receptions for 60 yards while also rushing for 54 on 14 carries.
Dolphins: Mike Gesicki continues to be the top target in the Miami offense. He had eight receptions for 115 yards on nine targets on Sunday.
Statistical leaders
Falcons:
Passing: Matt Ryan -- 1,332 yards, 10 TD, 3 INT
Rushing: Mike Davis -- 204 yards, 1 TD
Receiving: Kyle Pitts -- 308 yards, 1 TD
Defense: Foyesade Oluokun -- 48 tackles
Dolphins:
Passing: Jacoby Brissett -- 883 yards, 4 TD, 2 INT
Rushing: Myles Gaskin -- 176 yards
Receiving: Mike Gesicki -- 342 yards, 1 TD
Defense: Emmanuel Ogbah -- 2.5 sacks
Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this Atlanta Falcons - Miami Dolphins prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily NFL projections and previews.
Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
