Perhaps we just needed the calendar to move to April? After enjoying a good college basketball season that included winning our College Basketball Game of the Month with Iowa State’s easy victory against Oklahoma on February 28th, about nothing went right in March with a very disappointing March Madness campaign. But once we got out of the month, we went 6-0 with our final six college basketball plays in April with 2-0 sweeps in both Final Four games and then in the National Championship. We also won our College Basketball Game of the Year on Purdue in their Final Four contest. 

Going into that game against North Carolina State, Purdue had won 10 of their last 11 games after their 72-66 victory against Tennessee as a 3-point favorite in their Elite Eight game. The Wolfpack had won nine straight games after their 76-64 upset victory against Duke as a 7-point underdog in their Elite Eight game. This game was being played on a neutral court at the State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

NC State held the Blue Devils to just 32.2% shooting last Sunday which was the best defensive effort of their season. Getting Kyle Filipowski into foul trouble helped — and Duke made only five of their 20 shots (25%) of their shots from behind the arc. The Wolfpack’s improbable run after trailing a bad Louisville team at halftime in the opening round of the ACC Tournament had included seven upset victories. They have survived two overtime games. And they had probably been fortunate with opponent 3-point shooting woes since their last eight opponents have made only 26.2% of their shots behind the arc despite posting a 35.8% opponent shooting percentage from 3-point land after rallying to defeat the Cardinals a month ago. 

I expected their bubble to finally burst — and in a big way — against this Boilermakers team. NC State’s run had been centered on the improved and inspired play of D.J. Burns whose playground post-up moves have baffled opponents. But the 275-pounder’s mojo was not going to fly when now being guarded by Zach Edey, who has seven inches and 25 pounds on him. Burns had thrived on taking advantage of opposing defenders leaning in on him to slow him down since he has the agility to spin by those guys. Edey did not need to do that — he was just going to stand there and raise his arms. He didn’t commit many fouls because simply staying vertical is imposing enough on potential shooters. Burns could attempt to attack the rim — but Edey’s 7.0% block rate of opposing shots he defends comes into play. 

The Wolfpack faced an even bigger challenge trying to defend Edey — the conundrum was a huge challenge for head coach Kevin Keatts. If he used Burns to try to defend him, he risked getting him into foul trouble since Edey is so good at drawing fouls. Opposing big men had fouled out in 29 of the 37 games Purdue had played. Burns was too small to stop Edey’s hook shot. And he’s slow. Keatts could deploy Mohamed Diarra who is an inch taller than Burns — but he was spotting Edey 85 pounds. Another problem would then be that Burns would be forced to defend on the perimeter (probably against the 6’6 Mason Gillis) since Purdue played the other four players with Edey out on the perimeter where they all can make 3s. Keatts could try a zone defense to bypass these problems — but then Edey would have even more room to crash the boards for second-shot opportunities. He ranked third in the country by pulling down 18.5% of his team’s missed shots when he was on the court. And this potential zone would open up more 3-point opportunities for the Boilermakers who rank second in the nation by nailing 40.6% of their 3s. Purdue has scored 1.12 Points-Per-Possession in the rare times teams had attempted to deploy a zone defense against them. 

NC State had failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after a double-digit win — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after a double-digit win against an ACC rival. And teams in the NCAA Tournament coming off a win that eliminated Duke from the Big Dance had failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their next 9 games. NC State had failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after 15 games into the season against teams winning 80% or more of their games.

Purdue only made 45.3% of their shots against the tough Volunteers defense in the Elite Eight which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. The Boilermakers did control the boards by out-rebounding Tennessee by a 47-26 margin — and they had covered the point spread in 6 straight games after out-rebounding their last opponent by 20 or more boards. Purdue had covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games against teams outside the Big Ten — and they had covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games played on a neutral court. The Boilermakers had covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games against teams winning 60-80% of their games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their 9 games in the Big Dance under head coach Matt Painter when favored by nine or more points. 

Purdue controlled the game in a 63-50 victory. Edey scored 20 points on 9 of 14 shooting and grabbed 12 rebounds. Burns only scored 8 points. The Wolfpack only made 37% of their shots. The closest NC State would make the game was within seven points with just over eight minutes left. We won our College Basketball Game of the Year and ended the season on a relatively high note, but understanding an autopsy is needed to determine what went wrong in the month of March. I’ll solve it. 

Best of luck — Frank.